From pandemic to endemic: Spatial-temporal patterns of influenza-like illness incidence in a Swiss canton, 1918-1924

In pandemics, past and present, there is no textbook definition of when a pandemic is over, and how and when exactly a respiratory virus transitions from pandemic to endemic spread. In this paper we have compared the 1918/19 influenza pandemic and the subsequent spread of seasonal flu until 1924. We analysed 14,125 reports of newly stated 32,198 influenza-like illnesses from the Swiss canton of Bern. We analysed the temporal and spatial spread at the level of municipalities, regions, and the canton. We calculated incidence rates per 1000 inhabitants of newly registered cases per calendar week. Further, we illustrated the incidences of each municipality for each wave (first wave in summer 1918, second wave in fall/winter 1918/19, the strong later wave in early 1920, as well as the two seasonal waves in 1922 and 1924) on a choropleth map. We performed a spatial hotspot analysis to identify spatial clusters in each wave, using the Gi* statistic. Furthermore, we applied a robust negative binomial regression to estimate the association between selected explanatory variables and incidence on the ecological level. We show that the pandemic transitioned to endemic spread in several waves (including another strong wave in February 1920) with lower incidence and rather local spread until 1924 at least. At the municipality and regional levels, there were different patterns of spread both between pandemic and seasonal waves. In the first pandemic wave in summer 1918 the probability of higher incidence was increased in municipalities with a higher proportion of manufacturing factories (OR 2.60, 95%CI 1.42-4.96), as well as in municipalities that had access to a railway station (OR 1.50, 95%CI 1.16-1.96). In contrast, the strong fall/winter wave 1918 was very widespread throughout the canton. In general, municipalities at higher altitude showed lower incidence. Our study adds to the sparse literature on incidence in the 1918/19 pandemic and subsequent years. Before Covid-19, the last pandemic that occurred in several waves and then became endemic was the 1918-19 pandemic. Such scenarios from the past can inform pandemic planning and preparedness in current and future outbreaks

Initial Semantics for Strengthened Signatures

We give a new general definition of arity, yielding the companion notions of signature and associated syntax. This setting is modular in the sense requested by Ghani and Uustalu: merging two extensions of syntax corresponds to building an amalgamated sum. These signatures are too general in the sense that we are not able to prove the existence of an associated syntax in this general context. So we have to select arities and signatures for which there exists the desired initial monad. For this, we follow a track opened by Matthes and Uustalu: we introduce a notion of strengthened arity and prove that the corresponding signatures have initial semantics (i.e. associated syntax). Our strengthened arities admit colimits, which allows the treatment of the \lambda-calculus with explicit substitution.Comment: In Proceedings FICS 2012, arXiv:1202.317

The Innovative FlexPlan Grid-Planning Methodology: How Storage and Flexible Resources Could Help in De-Bottlenecking the European System

The FlexPlan Horizon2020 project aims at establishing a new grid-planning methodology which considers the opportunity to introduce new storage and flexibility resources in electricity transmission and distribution grids as an alternative to building new grid elements, in accordance with the intentions of the Clean Energy for all Europeans regulatory package of the European Commission. FlexPlan creates a new innovative grid-planning tool whose ambition is to go beyond the state of the art of planning methodologies by including the following innovative features: assessment of the best planning strategy by analysing in one shot a high number of candidate expansion options provided by a pre-processor tool, simultaneous mid- and long-term planning assessment over three grid years (2030, 2040, 2050), incorporation of a full range of cost–benefit analysis criteria into the target function, integrated transmission distribution planning, embedded environmental analysis (air quality, carbon footprint, landscape constraints), probabilistic contingency methodologies in replacement of the traditional N-1 criterion, application of numerical decomposition techniques to reduce calculation efforts and analysis of variability of yearly renewable energy sources (RES) and load time series through a Monte Carlo process. Six regional cases covering nearly the whole European continent are developed in order to cast a view on grid planning in Europe till 2050. FlexPlan will end up formulating guidelines for regulators and planning offices of system operators by indicating to what extent system flexibility can contribute to reducing overall system costs (operational + investment) yet maintaining current system security levels and which regulatory provisions could foster such process. This paper provides a complete description of the modelling features of the planning tool and pre-processor and provides the first results of their application in small-scale scenariosThe research leading to these results/this publication received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 86381

Passing to the Limit in a Wasserstein Gradient Flow: From Diffusion to Reaction

We study a singular-limit problem arising in the modelling of chemical reactions. At finite {\epsilon} > 0, the system is described by a Fokker-Planck convection-diffusion equation with a double-well convection potential. This potential is scaled by 1/{\epsilon}, and in the limit {\epsilon} -> 0, the solution concentrates onto the two wells, resulting into a limiting system that is a pair of ordinary differential equations for the density at the two wells. This convergence has been proved in Peletier, Savar\'e, and Veneroni, SIAM Journal on Mathematical Analysis, 42(4):1805-1825, 2010, using the linear structure of the equation. In this paper we re-prove the result by using solely the Wasserstein gradient-flow structure of the system. In particular we make no use of the linearity, nor of the fact that it is a second-order system. The first key step in this approach is a reformulation of the equation as the minimization of an action functional that captures the property of being a curve of maximal slope in an integrated form. The second important step is a rescaling of space. Using only the Wasserstein gradient-flow structure, we prove that the sequence of rescaled solutions is pre-compact in an appropriate topology. We then prove a Gamma-convergence result for the functional in this topology, and we identify the limiting functional and the differential equation that it represents. A consequence of these results is that solutions of the {\epsilon}-problem converge to a solution of the limiting problem.Comment: Added two sections, corrected minor typos, updated reference

Emerging approaches for data-driven innovation in Europe

Europe's digital transformation of the economy and society is one of the priorities of the current Commission and is framed by the European strategy for data. This strategy aims at creating a single market for data through the establishment of a common European data space, based in turn on domain-specific data spaces in strategic sectors such as environment, agriculture, industry, health and transportation. Acknowledging the key role that emerging technologies and innovative approaches for data sharing and use can play to make European data spaces a reality, this document presents a set of experiments that explore emerging technologies and tools for data-driven innovation, and also deepen in the socio-technical factors and forces that occur in data-driven innovation. Experimental results shed some light in terms of lessons learned and practical recommendations towards the establishment of European data spaces

Emerging approaches for data-driven innovation in Europe

Europe’s digital transformation of the economy and society is one of the priorities of the current Commission and is framed by the European strategy for data. This strategy aims at creating a single market for data through the establishment of a common European data space, based in turn on domain-specific data spaces in strategic sectors such as environment, agriculture, industry, health and transportation. Acknowledging the key role that emerging technologies and innovative approaches for data sharing and use can play to make European data spaces a reality, this document presents a set of experiments that explore emerging technologies and tools for data-driven innovation, and also deepen in the socio-technical factors and forces that occur in data-driven innovation. Experimental results shed some light in terms of lessons learned and practical recommendations towards the establishment of European data spaces