Screening Investments to Reduce the Risk of Hydrologic Failures in the Headwork System Supplying Apulia (Italy) – Role of Economic Evaluation and Operation Hydrology

The paper introduces and applies a methodology to screen investments aimed at reducing water supply risks due to hydrologic failures in headwork systems for municipal use, based on the principles of cost-benefit analysis. As risk includes both the probability of a failure and its effect, the methodology combines a simulation module of the system, fed by a stochastic hydrologic input to reproduce the probability distribution of the failures, with a metric for supply failure damage provided by the price – demand relationship for municipal water. Benefits are assessed as the averted damage compared to a base case without investments. This approach is then combined with the classic discounted cashflow approach of cost– benefit analysis to allow for the dynamics of both water supply and demand due to trends in population growth, individual consumption and, above all, planned reduction of losses in water distribution networks. The methodology is applied to screen a number of different supply-side projects for the headwork system supplying Apulia, in southern Italy featuring both regulated surface and groundwater resources and providing drinking water to over 4,000,000 persons. The procedure allows both ranking of single projects by their economical performances and the economic evaluation of combinations of different projects. The study also aims to assess the impact of the selected time scale, of cross-correlation among production sites, and of the specification of the demand function on projects' economic indicators. Results show that each modelling assumption has a considerable impact on the value of the economic indicators in absolute terms, but ranking of the different projects seems to be less sensitive to such modelling aspects

Multi-year drought frequency analysis at multiple sites by operational hydrology - A comparison of methods

This paper compares two generators of yearly water availabilities from sources located at multiple sites with regard to their ability to reproduce the characteristics of historical critical periods and to provide reliable results in terms of the return period of critical sequences of different length. The two models are a novel multi-site Markov mixture model explicitly accounting for drought occurrences and a multivariate ARMA. In the case of the multisite Markov mixture model parameter estimation is limited to a search in the parameter space guided by the value of parameter k to show the sensitivity of the model to this parameter. Application to two of the longest time series of streamflows available in Sicily (Italy) shows that the models can provide quite different results in terms of estimated return periods of historic droughts, although they seem to perform more uniformly when it comes to simulate drought-related statistics such as drought length, severity and intensity. The role of parameter selection for the multisite Markov mixture model and of the marginal probability of generated flows in providing results consistent with the characteristics of the observed series is discussed. Both models are applied to the system of sources supplying the city of Palermo (Sicily) and its environs showing the applicability of the newly developed multisite Markov mixture model to medium-to-large scale water resources systems

Sensitivity of regional water supply systems models to the level of skeletonization – a case study from Apulia, Italy

Simulation models supported by state-of-the-art software packages are nowadays available to explore operation rules of regional water supply systems or to select structural alternatives for improving long-term service performances. Given the, sometimes high, complexity of these systems, model calibration can become a lengthy procedure and many runs are necessary before obtaining convincing results. However, even after calibration, depending on system's complexity and the number of time steps investigated, a single run can take up to several minutes, even on state-of-the-art computers, so that simulation time can become a true bottleneck if such models are to be coupled with metaheuristic optimization techniques, such as genetic optimization. This paper investigates the possibility to reduce computational time through skeletonization of the models. The regional water supply system of Apulia, Southern Italy, was adopted as a case study and the software package AQUATOR was employed to model the syste

From AAL to ambient assisted rehabilitation: a research pilot protocol based on smart objects and biofeedback

AbstractThe progressive miniaturization of electronic devices and their exponential increase in processing, storage and transmission capabilities, represent key factors of the current digital transformation, also sustaining the great development of Ambient Assisted Living (AAL) and the Internet of Things. Although most of the investigations in the recent years focused on remote monitoring and diagnostics, rehabilitation too could be positively affected by the widespread integrated use of these devices. Smart Objects in particular may be among the enablers to new quantitative approaches. In this paper, we present a proof-of-concept and some preliminary results of an innovative pediatric rehabilitation protocol based on Smart Objects and biofeedback, which we administered to a sample of children with unilateral cerebral palsy. The novelty of the approach mainly consists in placing the sensing device into a common toy (a ball in our protocol) and using the information measured by the device to administer multimedia-enriched type of exercises, more engaging if compared to the usual rehabilitation activities used in clinical settings. We also introduce a couple of performance indexes, which could be helpful for a quantitative continuous evaluation of movements during the exercises. Even if the number of children involved and sessions performed are not suitable to assess any change in the subjects' abilities, nor to derive solid statistical inferences, the novel approach resulted very engaging and enjoyable by all the children participating in the study. Moreover, given the almost non-existent literature on the use of Smart Objects in pediatric rehabilitation, the few qualitative/quantitative results here reported may promote the scientific and clinical discussion regarding AAL solutions in a "Computer Assisted Rehabilitation" perspective, towards what can be defined "Pediatric Rehabilitation 2.0"

Listening to the patient as a possible route to cost-effective rehabilitation: a case report

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Introduction</p> <p>Adolescents with cerebral palsy often do not need a specific rehabilitative treatment; however, when specific needs are expressed, clinicians should listen and try to answer them.</p> <p>Case presentation</p> <p>We present the case of a 17-year-old Italian male patient with hemiplegia who had received standard physiotherapy and, ultimately, after a period of adapted physical activity performed in a group, was under consideration for discharge. However, due to unsatisfactory hand control, he asked for help to reach a personal goal, the ability to drive a motorbike, without surgery. Functional taping showed efficacy, but was neither cost-effective nor practical for the patient and his family; by contrast, a dynamic orthosis associated with training in a real-life environment was instead successful.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The present case underlines the importance of considering solutions involving the motivation and compliance of the patient in order to improve his activity and participation.</p

La simulazione delle portate giornaliere di un corso d’acqua tramite modelli markoviani a stato nascosto

La memoria valuta l’applicabilità dei modelli markoviani a stato nascosto (Hidden state Markov Models) per la simulazione delle portate giornaliere di un corso d’acqua. In questi modelli la variabile osservata è l’emissione di un processo markoviano con un numero discreto di stati, caratterizzato da una matrice di probabilità di transizione, che viene “ricoperto” da una certa funzione densità di probabilità. Il problema della selezione del modello consiste in questo caso nella scelta del numero di stati e del tipo di distribuzione di probabilità di appartenenza ad uno stato. Identificato il modello, la sua calibrazione consiste nella stima delle probabilità di transizione e dei parametri della funzione densità di probabilità e viene effettuata massimizzando la log-verosimiglianza del processo. La procedura è applicata a sette anni di portate giornaliere del fiume Sosio a S.Carlo (90 km2) nel versante meridionale della Sicilia. I risultati sono incoraggianti, per quanto riguarda la distribuzione marginale delle portate e la loro struttura seriale. I confronti tra valori osservati e simulati di alcuni statistici relativi ai picchi ed alle recessioni mettono in evidenza la necessità di incrementare la struttura interna agli stati, anche se con piccoli aggiustamenti la capacità del modello di riprodurre gli statistici osservati migliora considerevolmente