Hierarchical modelling of temperature and habitat size effects on population dynamics of North Atlantic cod

Understanding how temperature affects cod (Gadus morhua) ecology is important for forecasting how populations will develop as climate changes in future. The effects of spawning-season temperature and habitat size on cod recruitment dynamics have been investigated across the North Atlantic. Ricker and Beverton and Holt stock–recruitment (SR) models were extended by applying hierarchical methods, mixed-effects models, and Bayesian inference to incorporate the influence of these ecosystem factors on model parameters representing cod maximum reproductive rate and carrying capacity. We identified the pattern of temperature effects on cod productivity at the species level and estimated SR model parameters with increased precision. Temperature impacts vary geographically, being positive in areas where temperatures are <5°C, and negative for higher temperatures. Using the relationship derived, it is possible to predict expected changes in population-specific reproductive rates and carrying capacities resulting from temperature increases. Further, carrying capacity covaries with available habitat size, explaining at least half its variability across stocks. These patterns improve our understanding of environmental impacts on key population parameters, which is required for an ecosystem approach to cod management, particularly under ocean-warming scenarios. Key words: carrying capacity , cod , hierarchical models , North Atlantic , temperature , uncertaint

Weed Species’ Diversity and Composition as Shaped by the Interaction of Management, Site, and Soil Variables in Olive Groves of Southern Greece

Gaining a comprehensive understanding of how weed communities respond to both environmental and human-induced factors is of paramount importance in developing effective and ecologically sound weed control strategies. The objectives of the current research were to (1) assess the effect of the main weed management practices used in Greek olive groves on weed species’ diversity; (2) explore the filtering effect of management, site, and soil variables in determining weed species’ composition; and (3) shed light on the association between weed species’ composition and the diversity of the understory vegetation of olive groves. To accomplish these objectives, winter weed species’ coverage was assessed in 116 olive groves, both conventional and organic, distributed across three provinces in southern Greece. The investigation encompassed 29 explanatory variables, categorized into three groups: soil (22), management practices (6), and site conditions (1). It was confirmed that glyphosate use may lower biodiversity and species richness; however, this trend was not universal. In fact, the negative influence of the presence of Oxalis pes-caprae L. on species richness and diversity far outweighed the effect of spraying glyphosate. Redundancy analysis (RDA) revealed that among the 29 variables used to describe the ecological niche, eight (i.e., Mn, Mg, chemical spraying, mowing, rotary tiller, grazing, irrigation, and elevation) were significant and explained 21.5% of the total variation in weed species’ data. Interestingly, the soil Mn concentration was identified as the most influential one, highlighting the importance of soil micronutrients in determining weed species’ composition. The variation partitioning procedure demonstrated that the effect of the management variables on weed species’ composition accounted for 2.2 times the variance of soil variables and 4.5 times the variance of elevation. The present findings might help to enhance optimal management in olive groves that can sustain the biodiversity of flora and, in turn, provide various ecosystem services to agro-ecosystems