36 research outputs found
Variability and potential sources of predictability of North American runoff
Understanding the space-time variability of runoff has important implications for climate because of the linkage of runoff and evapotranspiration and is a practical concern as well for the prediction of drought and floods. In contrast to many studies investigating the space-time variability of precipitation and temperature, there has been relatively little work evaluating climate teleconnections of runoff, in part because of the absence of data sets that lend themselves to commonly used techniques in climate analysis like principal components analysis. We examine the space-time variability of runoff over North America using a 50-year retrospective spatially distributed data set of runoff and other land surface water cycle variables predicted using a calibrated macroscale hydrology model, thus avoiding some shortcomings of past studies based more directly on streamflow observations. We determine contributions to runoff variability of climatic teleconnections, soil moisture, and snow for lead times up to a year. High and low values of these sources of predictability are evaluated separately. We identify patterns of runoff variability that are not revealed by direct analysis of observations, especially in areas of sparse stream gauge coverage. The presence of nonlinear relationships between large-scale climate changes and runoff pattern variability, as positive and negative values of the large-scale climate indices rarely show opposite teleconnections with a runoff pattern. Dry soil moisture anomalies have a stronger influence on runoff variability than wet soil. Snow, and more so soil moisture, in many locations enhance the predictability due to climatic teleconnections
Climate vulnerability assessment for Pacific salmon and steelhead in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem.
Major ecological realignments are already occurring in response to climate change. To be successful, conservation strategies now need to account for geographical patterns in traits sensitive to climate change, as well as climate threats to species-level diversity. As part of an effort to provide such information, we conducted a climate vulnerability assessment that included all anadromous Pacific salmon and steelhead (Oncorhynchus spp.) population units listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Using an expert-based scoring system, we ranked 20 attributes for the 28 listed units and 5 additional units. Attributes captured biological sensitivity, or the strength of linkages between each listing unit and the present climate; climate exposure, or the magnitude of projected change in local environmental conditions; and adaptive capacity, or the ability to modify phenotypes to cope with new climatic conditions. Each listing unit was then assigned one of four vulnerability categories. Units ranked most vulnerable overall were Chinook (O. tshawytscha) in the California Central Valley, coho (O. kisutch) in California and southern Oregon, sockeye (O. nerka) in the Snake River Basin, and spring-run Chinook in the interior Columbia and Willamette River Basins. We identified units with similar vulnerability profiles using a hierarchical cluster analysis. Life history characteristics, especially freshwater and estuary residence times, interplayed with gradations in exposure from south to north and from coastal to interior regions to generate landscape-level patterns within each species. Nearly all listing units faced high exposures to projected increases in stream temperature, sea surface temperature, and ocean acidification, but other aspects of exposure peaked in particular regions. Anthropogenic factors, especially migration barriers, habitat degradation, and hatchery influence, have reduced the adaptive capacity of most steelhead and salmon populations. Enhancing adaptive capacity is essential to mitigate for the increasing threat of climate change. Collectively, these results provide a framework to support recovery planning that considers climate impacts on the majority of West Coast anadromous salmonids
Recommended from our members
Vulnerability to climate change of managed stocks in the California Current large marine ecosystem
Introduction: Understanding how abundance, productivity and distribution of individual species may respond to climate change is a critical first step towards anticipating alterations in marine ecosystem structure and function, as well as developing strategies to adapt to the full range of potential changes. Methods: This study applies the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) Fisheries Climate Vulnerability Assessment method to 64 federally-managed species in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem to assess their vulnerability to climate change, where vulnerability is a function of a species’ exposure to environmental change and its biological sensitivity to a set of environmental conditions, which includes components of its resiliency and adaptive capacity to respond to these new conditions. Results: Overall, two-thirds of the species were judged to have Moderate or greater vulnerability to climate change, and only one species was anticipated to have a positive response. Species classified as Highly or Very Highly vulnerable share one or more characteristics including: 1) having complex life histories that utilize a wide range of freshwater and marine habitats; 2) having habitat specialization, particularly for areas that are likely to experience increased hypoxia; 3) having long lifespans and low population growth rates; and/or 4) being of high commercial value combined with impacts from non-climate stressors such as anthropogenic habitat degradation. Species with Low or Moderate vulnerability are either habitat generalists, occupy deep-water habitats or are highly mobile and likely to shift their ranges. Discussion: As climate-related changes intensify, this work provides key information for both scientists and managers as they address the long-term sustainability of fisheries in the region. This information can inform near-term advice for prioritizing species-level data collection and research on climate impacts, help managers to determine when and where a precautionary approach might be warranted, in harvest or other management decisions, and help identify habitats or life history stages that might be especially effective to protect or restore
Recommended from our members
State of the California Current 2012–13: No Such Thing as an "Average" Year
This report reviews the state of the California Current System (CCS) between winter 2012 and spring 2013, and includes observations from Washington State to Baja California. During 2012, large-scale climate modes indicated the CCS remained in a cool, productive phase present since 2007. The upwelling season was delayed north of 42˚N, but regions to the south, especially 33˚ to 36˚N, experienced average to above average upwelling that persisted throughout the summer. Contrary to the indication of high production suggested by the climate indices, chlorophyll observed from surveys
and remote sensing was below average along much of
the coast. As well, some members of the forage assemblages
along the coast experienced low abundances in
2012 surveys. Specifically, the concentrations of all lifestages
observed directly or from egg densities of Pacific
sardine, Sardinops sagax, and northern anchovy, Engraulis
mordax, were less than previous years’ survey estimates.
However, 2013 surveys and observations indicate an
increase in abundance of northern anchovy. During winter
2011/2012, the increased presence of northern copepod
species off northern California was consistent with
stronger southward transport. Krill and small-fraction
zooplankton abundances, where examined, were generally
above average. North of 42˚N, salps returned to
typical abundances in 2012 after greater observed concentrations
in 2010 and 2011. In contrast, salp abundance
off central and southern California increased after a
period of southward transport during winter 2011/2012.
Reproductive success of piscivorous Brandt’s cormorant,
Phalacrocorax penicillatus, was reduced while planktivorous
Cassin’s auklet, Ptychoramphus aleuticus was elevated.
Differences between the productivity of these two seabirds
may be related to the available forage assemblage observed in the surveys. California sea lion pups from
San Miguel Island were undernourished resulting in a
pup mortality event perhaps in response to changes in
forage availability. Limited biological data were available
for spring 2013, but strong winter upwelling coastwide
indicated an early spring transition, with the strong
upwelling persisting into early summer
Recommended from our members
Coastal upwelling in a warmer future
Coastal upwelling helps set the physical context for marine ecosystems, and upwelling zones are among the most productive regions of the global ocean. Unlike earlier models, two state‐of‐the‐art climate models exhibit little change during the next century in the magnitude and seasonality of coastal upwelling, but climate models are still probably not sufficiently developed (for example, they underestimate interdecadal variability in upwelling) to provide valid projections of this key component of the coastal environment