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OBJECTIVE Our aim is to compare the effect of type 2 diabetes on recurrent major cardiovascular events (MCVE) for patients with symptomatic vascular disease at different locations. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS A total of 6,841 patients from the single-center, prospective Second Manifestations of ARTerial disease (SMART) cohort study from Utrecht, the Netherlands, with clinically manifest vascular disease with (n = 1,155) and without (n = 5,686) type 2 diabetes were monitored between 1996 and 2013. The effect of type 2 diabetes on recurrent MCVE was analyzed with Cox proportional hazards models, stratified for disease location (cerebrovascular disease, peripheral artery disease, abdominal aortic aneurysm, coronary artery disease, or polyvascular disease, defined as >= 2 vascular locations). RESULTS Five-year risks for recurrent MCVE were 9% in cerebrovascular disease, 9% in peripheral artery disease, 20% in those with an abdominal aortic aneurysm, 7% in coronary artery disease, and 21% in polyvascular disease. Type 2 diabetes increased the risk of recurrent MCVE in coronary artery disease (hazard ratio [HR] 1.67; 95% CI 1.25-2.21) and seemed to increase the risk in cerebrovascular disease (HR 1.36; 95% CI 0.90-2.07), while being no risk factor in polyvascular disease (HR 1.12; 95% CI 0.83-1.50). Results for patients with peripheral artery disease (HR 1.42; 95% CI 0.79-2.56) or an abdominal aortic aneurysm (HR 0.93; 95% CI 0.23-3.68) were inconclusive. CONCLUSIONS Type 2 diabetes increased the risk of recurrent MCVE in patients with coronary artery disease, but there is no convincing evidence that it is a major risk factor for subsequent MCVE in all patients with symptomatic vascular disease

Cost-effectiveness of PCSK9 inhibition in addition to standard lipid-lowering therapy in patients at high risk for vascular disease

Background As proprotein convertase subtilisin-kexin type 9 (PCSK9) monoclonal antibodies are entering the market, we assessed the cost-effectiveness of PCSK9 inhibition added to standard lipid-lowering therapy in patient groups at high risk for major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). Methods A lifetime Markov Model was designed to estimate healthcare costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for PCSK9 inhibition added to standard therapy in patients with Familial Hypercholesterolemia (FH), patients with vascular disease at high MACE recurrence risk, and patients with vascular disease with diabetes mellitus. The balance between costs and health outcomes was established for a broad range of potential relative risk reductions and drug costs. Results The expected QALY gain per patient and ICER in the main scenario were 1.4 QALYs for €78,485/QALY gained in patients with FH, 0.22 QALYs for €176,735/QALY gained in those with vascular disease and a predicted risk of MACE ≥ 30% in 10 years, and 0.22 QALYs for €295,543/QALY gained in those with vascular disease and diabetes. Results were sensitive to assumptions on PCSK9 inhibitor treatment efficacy, and vascular event risks. Conclusion The costs and effects of PCSK9 inhibition added to standard lipid-lowering treatment in patient groups at high risk for MACE can be estimated and adapted to a specific clinical setting. PCSK9 inhibition could be cost-effective in patients with FH. In patients with vascular disease PCSK9 inhibition is less cost-effective, however, a price development may change clinical practice. This model may aid treatment and reimbursement decisions regarding PCSK9 inhibitors

Cost-effectiveness of PCSK9 inhibition in addition to standard lipid-lowering therapy in patients at high risk for vascular disease

BACKGROUND: As proprotein convertase subtilisin-kexin type 9 (PCSK9) monoclonal antibodies are entering the market, we assessed the cost-effectiveness of PCSK9 inhibition added to standard lipid-lowering therapy in patient groups at high risk for major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). METHODS: A lifetime Markov Model was designed to estimate healthcare costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for PCSK9 inhibition added to standard therapy in patients with Familial Hypercholesterolemia (FH), patients with vascular disease at high MACE recurrence risk, and patients with vascular disease with diabetes mellitus. The balance between costs and health outcomes was established for a broad range of potential relative risk reductions and drug costs. RESULTS: The expected QALY gain per patient and ICER in the main scenario were 1.4 QALYs for €78,485/QALY gained in patients with FH, 0.22 QALYs for €176,735/QALY gained in those with vascular disease and a predicted risk of MACE ≥30% in 10years, and 0.22 QALYs for €295,543/QALY gained in those with vascular disease and diabetes. Results were sensitive to assumptions on PCSK9 inhibitor treatment efficacy, and vascular event risks. CONCLUSION: The costs and effects of PCSK9 inhibition added to standard lipid-lowering treatment in patient groups at high risk for MACE can be estimated and adapted to a specific clinical setting. PCSK9 inhibition could be cost-effective in patients with FH. In patients with vascular disease PCSK9 inhibition is less cost-effective, however, a price development may change clinical practice. This model may aid treatment and reimbursement decisions regarding PCSK9 inhibitors

Impact of a Patient’s Baseline Risk on the Relative Benefit and Harm of a Preventive Treatment Strategy: Applying Trial Results in Clinical Decision Making

BACKGROUND: For translating an overall trial result into an individual patient’s expected absolute treatment effect, differences in relative treatment effect between patients need to be taken into account. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether relative treatment effects of medication in 2 large contemporary trials are influenced by multivariable baseline risk of an individual patient. METHODS AND RESULTS: In 9361 patients from SPRINT (Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial), risk of major adverse cardiovascular events was assessed using a newly derived risk model. In 18 133 patients from the RE-LY (Randomized Evaluation of Long-Term Anticoagulant Therapy) trial, risk of stroke or systemic embolism and major bleeding was assessed using the Global Anticoagulant Registry in the Field– Atrial Fibrillation risk model. Heterogeneity of trial treatment effect was assessed using Cox models of trial allocation, model linear predictor, and their interaction. There was no significant interaction between baseline risk and relative treatment effect from intensive blood pressure lowering in SPRINT (P=0.92) or from dabigatran compared with warfarin for stroke or systemic embolism in the RE-LY trial (P=0.71). There was significant interaction between baseline risk and treatment effect from dabigatran versus warfarin in the RE-LY trial (P<0.001) for major bleeding. Quartile-specific hazard ratios for bleeding ranged from 0.40 (95% CI, 0.26– 0.61) to 1.04 (95% CI, 0.83–1.03) for dabigatran, 110 mg, and from 0.61 (95% CI, 0.42– 0.88) to 1.20 (95% CI, 0.97–1.50) for dabigatran, 150 mg, compared with warfarin. CONCLUSIONS: Effect modification of relative treatment effect by individual baseline event risk should be assessed systemati-cally in randomized clinical trials using multivariate risk prediction, not only in terms of treatment efficacy but also for important treatment harms, as a prespecified analysis. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.clini​caltr​ials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT01206062

Incidence of cardiovascular events and vascular interventions in patients with type 2 diabetes

OBJECTIVE: Diabetes mellitus is associated with an increased risk for cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. The vascular burden in terms of incidence of cardiovascular events (CVE) and vascular interventions is however poorly quantified. In this study we evaluated the incidence rates of CVE and vascular interventions in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2DM) with and without cardiovascular disease (CVD) in comparison to patients without type 2 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: In a cohort of 9.808 high-risk patients with and without cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes originated from the ongoing, single-center prospective SMART (Second Manifestations of ARTerial disease) cohort, the number and incidence rates of CVE and interventions were calculated. The incidence rates were adjusted for confounders using Poisson regression models. CVE were defined as vascular death, stroke and myocardial infarction (MI). Interventions were defined as percutaneous coronary intervention, coronary artery bypass grafting, percutaneous transluminal angioplasty or stenting of the peripheral arteries and amputation. RESULTS: Patients with T2DM and CVD had a 4-fold higher incidence rate of CVE and a 8-fold higher incidence rate of vascular interventions compared to high-risk patients without T2DM and CVD after adjusting for confounders. The incidence rate for the composite of non-fatal MI, non-fatal stroke and vascular death was 5.8 per 1000person-years in patients without T2DM or CVD at baseline, 15.2 per 1000person-years in patients with T2DM but without CVD at baseline, 26.0 per 1000person-years in patients without T2DM but with CVD and 40.7 per 1000person-years in patients with both T2DM and CVD at baseline. A similar increasing incidence rate was seen for all vascular interventions from patients without T2DM or CVD to patients with both T2DM and CVD. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with type 2 diabetes or CVD are subject to an increased incidence of cardiovascular events and interventions compared to high-risk patients without type 2 diabetes or vascular disease. Patients with type 2 diabetes and CVD have the highest incidence of new cardiovascular diseases and vascular interventions when compared to patients without type 2 diabetes and CVD. These results underline the need for optimal risk factor treatment as well as the need for new prevention and treatment strategies in this very high risk population

Individual Treatment Effect Estimation of 2 Doses of Dabigatran on Stroke and Major Bleeding in Atrial Fibrillation

BACKGROUND: We aimed to estimate absolute benefit and harm from treatment with dabigatran in individual patients with atrial fibrillation, and to select the optimal dose for each individual. METHODS: We derived and validated a prediction model for ischemic stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding in patients with atrial fibrillation from the 3 treatment arms of the RE-LY trial (Randomized Evaluation of Long-Term Anticoagulation Therapy With Dabigatran Etexilate) (n=11 955 in derivation cohort, n=6158 in validation cohort). Readily available patient characteristics were included in Fine and Gray competing risk models (sex, age, smoking, antiplatelet drugs, previous vascular disease, diabetes mellitus, blood pressure, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and hemoglobin). Five-year risks for ischemic stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding were estimated without anticoagulation therapy, and compared with high- and low-dose dabigatran. RESULTS: Model calibration was good, and discrimination was adequate with a c-statistic of 0.65 (95% CI, 0.62-0.70) for ischemic stroke/systemic embolism and 0.69 (95% CI, 0.66-0.71) for major bleeding. The 5-year absolute risk reduction for ischemic stroke/systemic embolism with dabigatran 150 mg twice daily ranged from 25% in 14% of patients, and the 5-year absolute risk increase for major bleeding ranged from <5% in 53% of patients to 15% to 20% in 1% of patients. Comparing high-dose to low-dose dabigatran, the net benefit (absolute risk reduction minus absolute risk increase) was positive for 46% of patients. CONCLUSIONS: The absolute treatment benefits and harms of dabigatran in atrial fibrillation can be estimated based on readily available patient characteristics. Such treatment effect estimations can be used for shared decision making before starting dabigatran treatment and to determine the optimal dose. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier: NCT00262600

Individual Treatment Effect Estimation of 2 Doses of Dabigatran on Stroke and Major Bleeding in Atrial Fibrillation : Results from the RE-LY Trial

Background: We aimed to estimate absolute benefit and harm from treatment with dabigatran in individual patients with atrial fibrillation, and to select the optimal dose for each individual. Methods: We derived and validated a prediction model for ischemic stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding in patients with atrial fibrillation from the 3 treatment arms of the RE-LY trial (Randomized Evaluation of Long-Term Anticoagulation Therapy With Dabigatran Etexilate) (n=11 955 in derivation cohort, n=6158 in validation cohort). Readily available patient characteristics were included in Fine and Gray competing risk models (sex, age, smoking, antiplatelet drugs, previous vascular disease, diabetes mellitus, blood pressure, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and hemoglobin). Five-year risks for ischemic stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding were estimated without anticoagulation therapy, and compared with high- and low-dose dabigatran. Results: Model calibration was good, and discrimination was adequate with a c-statistic of 0.65 (95% CI, 0.62-0.70) for ischemic stroke/systemic embolism and 0.69 (95% CI, 0.66-0.71) for major bleeding. The 5-year absolute risk reduction for ischemic stroke/systemic embolism with dabigatran 150 mg twice daily ranged from 25% in 14% of patients, and the 5-year absolute risk increase for major bleeding ranged from <5% in 53% of patients to 15% to 20% in 1% of patients. Comparing high-dose to low-dose dabigatran, the net benefit (absolute risk reduction minus absolute risk increase) was positive for 46% of patients. Conclusions: The absolute treatment benefits and harms of dabigatran in atrial fibrillation can be estimated based on readily available patient characteristics. Such treatment effect estimations can be used for shared decision making before starting dabigatran treatment and to determine the optimal dose

Incidence of cardiovascular events and vascular interventions in patients with type 2 diabetes

OBJECTIVE: Diabetes mellitus is associated with an increased risk for cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. The vascular burden in terms of incidence of cardiovascular events (CVE) and vascular interventions is however poorly quantified. In this study we evaluated the incidence rates of CVE and vascular interventions in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2DM) with and without cardiovascular disease (CVD) in comparison to patients without type 2 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: In a cohort of 9.808 high-risk patients with and without cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes originated from the ongoing, single-center prospective SMART (Second Manifestations of ARTerial disease) cohort, the number and incidence rates of CVE and interventions were calculated. The incidence rates were adjusted for confounders using Poisson regression models. CVE were defined as vascular death, stroke and myocardial infarction (MI). Interventions were defined as percutaneous coronary intervention, coronary artery bypass grafting, percutaneous transluminal angioplasty or stenting of the peripheral arteries and amputation. RESULTS: Patients with T2DM and CVD had a 4-fold higher incidence rate of CVE and a 8-fold higher incidence rate of vascular interventions compared to high-risk patients without T2DM and CVD after adjusting for confounders. The incidence rate for the composite of non-fatal MI, non-fatal stroke and vascular death was 5.8 per 1000person-years in patients without T2DM or CVD at baseline, 15.2 per 1000person-years in patients with T2DM but without CVD at baseline, 26.0 per 1000person-years in patients without T2DM but with CVD and 40.7 per 1000person-years in patients with both T2DM and CVD at baseline. A similar increasing incidence rate was seen for all vascular interventions from patients without T2DM or CVD to patients with both T2DM and CVD. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with type 2 diabetes or CVD are subject to an increased incidence of cardiovascular events and interventions compared to high-risk patients without type 2 diabetes or vascular disease. Patients with type 2 diabetes and CVD have the highest incidence of new cardiovascular diseases and vascular interventions when compared to patients without type 2 diabetes and CVD. These results underline the need for optimal risk factor treatment as well as the need for new prevention and treatment strategies in this very high risk population

Personalized absolute benefit of statin treatment for primary or secondary prevention of vascular disease in individual elderly patients

JWJ/his department has received research grants from and/or was speaker (with or without lecture fees) on a.o. (CME accredited) meetings sponsored by Amgen, Astellas, Anthera, Astra-Zeneca, Bayer, Biotronik, Boston Scientific, Daiichi Sankyo, Lilly, Genzyme, Medtronic, Merck-Schering-Plough, Pfizer, Orbus Neich, Novartis, Roche, Servier, Sanofi Aventis, The Medicine Company, the Netherlands Heart Foundation, CardioVascular Research the Netherlands (CVON), the Interuniversity Cardiology Institute of the Netherlands and the European Community Framework KP7 Programme. AG received a travel grant from Pfizer inc. NS reports personal fees from Amgen, personal fees from Astrazeneca, personal fees from Merck, during the conduct of the study