Importance of tropospheric volcanic aerosol for indirect radiative forcing of climate

Observations and models have shown that continuously degassing volcanoes have a potentially large effect on the natural background aerosol loading and the radiative state of the atmosphere. We use a global aerosol microphysics model to quantify the impact of these volcanic emissions on the cloud albedo radiative forcing under pre-industrial (PI) and present-day (PD) conditions. We find that volcanic degassing increases global annual mean cloud droplet number concentrations by 40% under PI conditions, but by only 10% under PD conditions. Consequently, volcanic degassing causes a global annual mean cloud albedo effect of −1.06 W m−2 in the PI era but only −0.56 W m−2 in the PD era. This non-equal effect is explained partly by the lower background aerosol concentrations in the PI era, but also because more aerosol particles are produced per unit of volcanic sulphur emission in the PI atmosphere. The higher sensitivity of the PI atmosphere to volcanic emissions has an important consequence for the anthropogenic cloud radiative forcing because the large uncertainty in volcanic emissions translates into an uncertainty in the PI baseline cloud radiative state. Assuming a −50/+100% uncertainty range in the volcanic sulphur flux, we estimate the annual mean anthropogenic cloud albedo forcing to lie between −1.16 W m−2 and −0.86 W m−2. Therefore, the volcanically induced uncertainty in the PI baseline cloud radiative state substantially adds to the already large uncertainty in the magnitude of the indirect radiative forcing of climate

The VITAH Trial-Vitamin D Supplementation and Cardiac Autonomic Tone in Patients with End-Stage Kidney Disease on Hemodialysis: A Blinded, Randomized Controlled Trial

End-stage kidney disease (ESKD) patients are at increased cardiovascular risk. Vitamin D deficiency is associated with depressed heart rate variability (HRV), a risk factor depicting poor cardiac autonomic tone and risk of cardiovascular death. Vitamin D deficiency and depressed HRV are highly prevalent in the ESKD population. We aimed to determine the effects of oral vitamin D supplementation on HRV ((low frequency (LF) to high frequency (HF) spectral ratio (LF:HF)) in ESKD patients on hemodialysis. Fifty-six subjects with ESKD requiring hemodialysis were recruited from January 2013-March 2015 and randomized 1:1 to either conventional (0.25 mcg alfacalcidol plus placebo 3×/week) or intensive (0.25 mcg alfacalcidol 3×/week plus 50,000 international units (IU) ergocalciferol 1×/week) vitamin D for six weeks. The primary outcome was the change in LF:HF. There was no difference in LF:HF from baseline to six weeks for either vitamin D treatment (conventional: p = 0.9 vs. baseline; intensive: p = 0.07 vs. baseline). However, participants who remained vitamin D-deficient (25-hydroxyvitamin D < 20 ng/mL) after treatment demonstrated an increase in LF:HF (conventional: n = 13, ∆LF:HF: 0.20 ± 0.06, p < 0.001 vs. insufficient and sufficient vitamin D groups; intensive: n = 8: ∆LF:HF: 0.15 ± 0.06, p < 0.001 vs. sufficient vitamin D group). Overall, six weeks of conventional or intensive vitamin D only augmented LF:HF in ESKD subjects who remained vitamin D-deficient after treatment. Our findings potentially suggest that while activated vitamin D, with or without additional nutritional vitamin D, does not appear to improve cardiac autonomic tone in hemodialysis patients with insufficient or sufficient baseline vitamin D levels, supplementation in patients with severe vitamin D deficiency may improve cardiac autonomic tone in this higher risk sub-population of ESKD. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01774812

Emulation of a complex global aerosol model to quantify sensitivity to uncertain parameters

Sensitivity analysis of atmospheric models is necessary to identify the processes that lead to uncertainty in model predictions, to help understand model diversity through comparison of driving processes, and to prioritise research. Assessing the effect of parameter uncertainty in complex models is challenging and often limited by CPU constraints. Here we present a cost-effective application of variance-based sensitivity analysis to quantify the sensitivity of a 3-D global aerosol model to uncertain parameters. A Gaussian process emulator is used to estimate the model output across multi-dimensional parameter space, using information from a small number of model runs at points chosen using a Latin hypercube space-filling design. Gaussian process emulation is a Bayesian approach that uses information from the model runs along with some prior assumptions about the model behaviour to predict model output everywhere in the uncertainty space. We use the Gaussian process emulator to calculate the percentage of expected output variance explained by uncertainty in global aerosol model parameters and their interactions. To demonstrate the technique, we show examples of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) sensitivity to 8 model parameters in polluted and remote marine environments as a function of altitude. In the polluted environment 95 % of the variance of CCN concentration is described by uncertainty in the 8 parameters (excluding their interaction effects) and is dominated by the uncertainty in the sulphur emissions, which explains 80 % of the variance. However, in the remote region parameter interaction effects become important, accounting for up to 40 % of the total variance. Some parameters are shown to have a negligible individual effect but a substantial interaction effect. Such sensitivities would not be detected in the commonly used single parameter perturbation experiments, which would therefore underpredict total uncertainty. Gaussian process emulation is shown to be an efficient and useful technique for quantifying parameter sensitivity in complex global atmospheric models

Thermodynamic instability of doubly spinning black objects

We investigate the thermodynamic stability of neutral black objects with (at least) two angular momenta. We use the quasilocal formalism to compute the grand canonical potential and show that the doubly spinning black ring is thermodynamically unstable. We consider the thermodynamic instabilities of ultra-spinning black objects and point out a subtle relation between the microcanonical and grand canonical ensembles. We also find the location of the black string/membrane phases of doubly spinning black objects.Comment: 25 pages, 7 figures v2: matches the published versio

Graviton 1-loop partition function for 3-dimensional massive gravity

The graviton 1-loop partition function in Euclidean topologically massive gravity (TMG) is calculated using heat kernel techniques. The partition function does not factorize holomorphically, and at the chiral point it has the structure expected from a logarithmic conformal field theory. This gives strong evidence for the proposal that the dual conformal field theory to TMG at the chiral point is indeed logarithmic. We also generalize our results to new massive gravity.Comment: 19 pages, v2: major revision, considerably stronger conclusions, added comparison with LCFT partition function, confirmation of LCFT conjecture, added autho

Anomalous Breaking of Anisotropic Scaling Symmetry in the Quantum Lifshitz Model

In this note we investigate the anomalous breaking of anisotropic scaling symmetry in a non-relativistic field theory with dynamical exponent z=2. On general grounds, one can show that there exist two possible "central charges" which characterize the breaking of scale invariance. Using heat kernel methods, we compute these two central charges in the quantum Lifshitz model, a free field theory which is second order in time and fourth order in spatial derivatives. We find that one of the two central charges vanishes. Interestingly, this is also true for strongly coupled non-relativistic field theories with a geometric dual described by a metric and a massive vector field.Comment: 26 pages; major revision (results were unaffected), published versio

Generalised massive gravity one-loop partition function and AdS/(L)CFT

The graviton 1-loop partition function is calculated for Euclidean generalised massive gravity (GMG) using AdS heat kernel techniques. We find that the results fit perfectly into the AdS/(L)CFT picture. Conformal Chern-Simons gravity, a singular limit of GMG, leads to an additional contribution in the 1-loop determinant from the conformal ghost. We show that this contribution has a nice interpretation on the conformal field theory side in terms of a semi-classical null vector at level two descending from a primary with conformal weights (3/2,-1/2).Comment: 25 p., 2 jpg figs, v2: added 6 lines of clarifying text after Eq. (2.38

Logarithmic correction to BH entropy as Noether charge

We consider the role of the type-A trace anomaly in static black hole solutions to semiclassical Einstein equation in four dimensions. Via Wald's Noether charge formalism, we compute the contribution to the entropy coming from the anomaly induced effective action and unveil a logarithmic correction to the Bekenstein-Hawking area law. The corrected entropy is given by a seemingly universal formula involving the coefficient of the type-A trace anomaly, the Euler characteristic of the horizon and the value at the horizon of the solution to the uniformization problem for Q-curvature. Two instances are examined in detail: Schwarzschild and a four-dimensional massless topological black hole. We also find agreement with the logarithmic correction due to one-loop contribution of conformal fields in the Schwarzschild background.Comment: 14 pages, JHEP styl

The Impact of Changes in Cloud Water pH on Aerosol Radiative Forcing

Oxidation of sulfur dioxide (SO₂) in cloud water by reaction with ozone is an important sulfate aerosol formation mechanism and strongly dependent on the acidity of cloud water. Decadal reductions in Northern Hemisphere sulfur emissions have contributed to higher cloud water pH, thereby altering sulfate formation rates. Here we use a global composition-climate model to show that changes in cloud water pH over the 1970–2009 period strongly affects the aerosol particle size distribution, cloud condensation nuclei concentrations, and the magnitude of aerosol radiative forcing. The simulated all-sky aerosol radiative forcing (1970–2009) over the North Atlantic is +1.2 W m‾² if pH remains constant at 5.0, as in many climate models. However, the forcing increases to +5.2 W m‾² if pH is assumed to increase by 1.0 unit over this period. Global composition climate models need to account for variations in cloud water pH to improve the representation of sulfate aerosol formation and aerosol radiative effects

Logarithmic Corrections to Schwarzschild and Other Non-extremal Black Hole Entropy in Different Dimensions

Euclidean gravity method has been successful in computing logarithmic corrections to extremal black hole entropy in terms of low energy data, and gives results in perfect agreement with the microscopic results in string theory. Motivated by this success we apply Euclidean gravity to compute logarithmic corrections to the entropy of various non-extremal black holes in different dimensions, taking special care of integration over the zero modes and keeping track of the ensemble in which the computation is done. These results provide strong constraint on any ultraviolet completion of the theory if the latter is able to give an independent computation of the entropy of non-extremal black holes from microscopic description. For Schwarzschild black holes in four space-time dimensions the macroscopic result seems to disagree with the existing result in loop quantum gravity.Comment: LaTeX, 40 pages; corrected small typos and added reference