Nomogram-based prediction of survival in patients with advanced oesophagogastric adenocarcinoma receiving first-line chemotherapy: a multicenter prospective study in the era of trastuzumab

Background: To develop and validate a nomogram and web-based calculator to predict overall survival (OS) in Caucasian-advanced oesophagogastric adenocarcinoma (AOA) patients undergoing first-line combination chemotherapy. Methods: Nine hundred twenty-four AOA patients treated at 28 Spanish teaching hospitals from January 2008 to September 2014 were used as derivation cohort. The result of an adjusted-Cox proportional hazards regression was represented as a nomogram and web-based calculator. The model was validated in 502 prospectively recruited patients treated between October 2014 and December 2016. Harrell's c-index was used to evaluate discrimination. Results: The nomogram includes seven predictors associated with OS: HER2-positive tumours treated with trastuzumab, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, number of metastatic sites, bone metastases, ascites, histological grade, and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio. Median OS was 5.8 (95% confidence interval (CI), 4.5–6.6), 9.4 (95% CI, 8.5–10.6), and 14 months (95% CI, 11.8–16) for high-, intermediate-, and low-risk groups, respectively (P<0.001), in the derivation set and 4.6 (95% CI, 3.3–8.1), 12.7 (95% CI, 11.3–14.3), and 18.3 months (95% CI, 14.6–24.2) for high-, intermediate-, and low-risk groups, respectively (P<0.001), in the validation set. The nomogram is well-calibrated and reveals acceptable discriminatory capacity, with optimism-corrected c-indices of 0.618 (95% CI, 0.591–0.631) and 0.673 (95% CI, 0.636–0.709) in derivation and validation groups, respectively. The AGAMENON nomogram outperformed the Royal Marsden Hospital (c-index=0.583; P=0.00046) and Japan Clinical Oncology Group prognostic indices (c-index=0.611; P=0.03351). Conclusions: We developed and validated a straightforward model to predict survival in Caucasian AOA patients initiating first-line polychemotherapy. This model can contribute to inform clinical decision-making and optimise clinical trial design

The Interactive Effects of Ammonia and Microcystin on Life-History Traits of the Cladoceran Daphnia magna: Synergistic or Antagonistic?

The occurrence of Microcystis blooms is a worldwide concern that has caused numerous adverse effects on water quality and lake ecology. Elevated ammonia and microcystin concentrations co-occur during the degradation of Microcystis blooms and are toxic to aquatic organisms; we studied the relative and combined effects of these on the life history of the model organism Daphnia magna. Ammonia and microcystin-LR treatments were: 0, 0.366, 0.581 mg L−1 and 0, 10, 30, 100 µg L−1, respectively. Experiments followed a fully factorial design. Incubations were 14 d and recorded the following life-history traits: number of moults, time to first batch of eggs, time to first clutch, size at first batch of eggs, size at first clutch, number of clutches per female, number of offspring per clutch, and total offspring per female. Both ammonia and microcystin were detrimental to most life-history traits. Interactive effects of the toxins occurred for five traits: the time to first batch of eggs appearing in the brood pouch, time to first clutch, size at first clutch, number of clutches, and total offspring per female. The interactive effects of ammonia and microcystin appeared to be synergistic on some parameters (e.g., time to first eggs) and antagonistic on others (e.g., total offspring per female). In conclusion, the released toxins during the degradation of Microcystis blooms would result, according to our data, in substantially negative effect on D. magna

Role of age and comorbidities in mortality of patients with infective endocarditis

[Purpose]: The aim of this study was to analyse the characteristics of patients with IE in three groups of age and to assess the ability of age and the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) to predict mortality. [Methods]: Prospective cohort study of all patients with IE included in the GAMES Spanish database between 2008 and 2015.Patients were stratified into three age groups:<65 years,65 to 80 years,and ≥ 80 years.The area under the receiver-operating characteristic (AUROC) curve was calculated to quantify the diagnostic accuracy of the CCI to predict mortality risk. [Results]: A total of 3120 patients with IE (1327 < 65 years;1291 65-80 years;502 ≥ 80 years) were enrolled.Fever and heart failure were the most common presentations of IE, with no differences among age groups.Patients ≥80 years who underwent surgery were significantly lower compared with other age groups (14.3%,65 years; 20.5%,65-79 years; 31.3%,≥80 years). In-hospital mortality was lower in the <65-year group (20.3%,<65 years;30.1%,65-79 years;34.7%,≥80 years;p < 0.001) as well as 1-year mortality (3.2%, <65 years; 5.5%, 65-80 years;7.6%,≥80 years; p = 0.003).Independent predictors of mortality were age ≥ 80 years (hazard ratio [HR]:2.78;95% confidence interval [CI]:2.32–3.34), CCI ≥ 3 (HR:1.62; 95% CI:1.39–1.88),and non-performed surgery (HR:1.64;95% CI:11.16–1.58).When the three age groups were compared,the AUROC curve for CCI was significantly larger for patients aged <65 years(p < 0.001) for both in-hospital and 1-year mortality. [Conclusion]: There were no differences in the clinical presentation of IE between the groups. Age ≥ 80 years, high comorbidity (measured by CCI),and non-performance of surgery were independent predictors of mortality in patients with IE.CCI could help to identify those patients with IE and surgical indication who present a lower risk of in-hospital and 1-year mortality after surgery, especially in the <65-year group

Lauren subtypes of advanced gastric cancer influence survival and response to chemotherapy: real-world data from the AGAMENON National Cancer Registry.

The choice of chemotherapy in HER2-negative gastric cancer is based on centre's preferences and adverse effects profile. No schedule is currently accepted as standard, nor are there any factors to predict response, other than HER2 status. We seek to evaluate whether Lauren type influences the efficacy of various chemotherapies and on patient overall survival (OS). We have conducted a multicenter study in 31 hospitals. The eligibility criteria include diagnosis of stomach or gastroesophageal junction adenocarcinoma, HER2 negativity, and chemotherapy containing 2-3 drugs. Cox proportional hazards regression adjusted for confounding factors, with tests of 'treatment-by-histology' interaction, was used to estimate treatment effect. Our registry contains 1303 tumours analysable for OS end points and 730 evaluable for overall response rate (ORR). A decrease in ORR was detected in the presence of a diffuse component: odds ratio 0.719 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.525-0.987), P=0.039. Anthracycline- or docetaxel-containing schedules increased ORR only in the intestinal type. The diffuse type displayed increased mortality with hazard ratio (HR) of 1.201 (95% CI, 1.054-1.368), P=0.0056. Patients receiving chemotherapy with docetaxel exhibited increased OS limited to the intestinal type: HR 0.65 (95% CI, 0.49-0.87), P=0.024, with no increment in OS for the subset having a diffuse component. With respect to progression-free survival (PFS), a significant interaction was seen in the effect of docetaxel-containing schedules, with better PFS limited to the intestinal type subgroup, in the comparison against any other schedule: HR 0.65 (95% CI, 0.50-0.85), P=0.015, and against anthracycline-based regimens: HR 0.64 (95% CI, 0.46-0.88), P=0.046. As a conclusion, in this registry, Lauren classification tumour subtypes predicted survival and responded differently to chemotherapy. Future clinical trials should stratify effect estimations based on histology

On the Effect of Triplet or Doublet Chemotherapy in Advanced Gastric Cancer: Results From a National Cancer Registry

Background: There is currently no consensus regarding first-line chemotherapy for patients with advanced gastric cancer (AGC) who are ineligible to receive trastuzumab. The objective of this study was to evaluate the efficacy and tolerance of triplets versus doublets by analyzing a national gastric cancer registry. Patients and Method: Patients with AGC treated with polychemotherapy without associating trastuzumab were included from 2008 through 2016. The effect of triplets versus doublets was compared using 3 methods: Cox proportional hazards regression, propensity score matching (PSM), and coarsened exact matching (CEM). Results: A total of 970 patients were recruited (doublets: n=569; triplets: n=401). In the multivariate Cox model, the use of triplets was associated with better overall survival (OS), with a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.84 (95% CI, 0.72–0.98; P=.035). After PSM, the sample contained 340 pairs. A significant increase in OS, 11.14 months (95% CI, 9.60–12.68) versus 9.60 months (95% CI, 8.44–10.75), was seen in favor of triplets (HR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.65–0.92; stratified log-rank test, P=.004). The effect appeared to be comparable for anthracycline-based (HR, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.64–0.94) or docetaxel-based triplets (HR, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.60–1.009). The trend was similar after applying the CEM algorithm, with an HR of 0.78 (95% CI, 0.63–0.97; P=.03). Triplet therapy was viable and relative dose intensities exceeded 85%, except for cisplatin in DCX (docetaxel, cisplatin, capecitabine). Triplets had more severe toxicity overall, especially hematologic, hepatic, and mucosal adverse events. Conclusions: With the limitations of a retrospective study that examines a heterogeneous set of chemotherapy regimens, we found that triplets are feasible in daily practice and are associated with a discreet benefit in efficacy at the expense of a moderate increase in toxicity

Prognostic significance of performing universal HER2 testing in cases of advanced gastric cancer.

Trastuzumab significantly improves overall survival (OS) when added to cisplatin and fluoropyrimidine as a treatment for HER2-positive advanced gastric cancers (AGC). The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of the gradual implementation of HER2 testing on patient prognosis in a national registry of AGC. This Spanish National Cancer Registry includes cases who were consecutively recruited at 28 centers from January 2008 to January 2016. The effect of missing HER2 status was assessed using stratified Cox proportional hazards (PH) regression. The rate of HER2 testing increased steadily over time, from 58.3 % in 2008 to 92.9 % in 2016. HER2 was positive in 194 tumors (21.3 %). In the stratified Cox PH regression, each 1 % increase in patients who were not tested for HER2 at the institutions was associated with an approximately 0.3 % increase in the risk of death: hazard ratio, 1.0035 (CI 95 %, 1.001-1.005), P = 0.0019. Median OS was significantly lower at institutions with the highest proportions of patients who were not tested for HER2. Patients treated at centers that took longer to implement HER2 testing exhibited worse clinical outcomes. The speed of implementation behaves as a quality-of-care indicator. Reviewed guidelines on HER2 testing should be used to achieve this goal in a timely manner

Nomogram-based prediction of survival in patients with advanced oesophagogastric adenocarcinoma receiving first-line chemotherapy: a multicenter prospective study in the era of trastuzumab

Background: To develop and validate a nomogram and web-based calculator to predict overall survival (OS) in Caucasian-advanced oesophagogastric adenocarcinoma (AOA) patients undergoing first-line combination chemotherapy. Methods: Nine hundred twenty-four AOA patients treated at 28 Spanish teaching hospitals from January 2008 to September 2014 were used as derivation cohort. The result of an adjusted-Cox proportional hazards regression was represented as a nomogram and web-based calculator. The model was validated in 502 prospectively recruited patients treated between October 2014 and December 2016. Harrell's c-index was used to evaluate discrimination. Results: The nomogram includes seven predictors associated with OS: HER2-positive tumours treated with trastuzumab, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, number of metastatic sites, bone metastases, ascites, histological grade, and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio. Median OS was 5.8 (95% confidence interval (CI), 4.5–6.6), 9.4 (95% CI, 8.5–10.6), and 14 months (95% CI, 11.8–16) for high-, intermediate-, and low-risk groups, respectively (P<0.001), in the derivation set and 4.6 (95% CI, 3.3–8.1), 12.7 (95% CI, 11.3–14.3), and 18.3 months (95% CI, 14.6–24.2) for high-, intermediate-, and low-risk groups, respectively (P<0.001), in the validation set. The nomogram is well-calibrated and reveals acceptable discriminatory capacity, with optimism-corrected c-indices of 0.618 (95% CI, 0.591–0.631) and 0.673 (95% CI, 0.636–0.709) in derivation and validation groups, respectively. The AGAMENON nomogram outperformed the Royal Marsden Hospital (c-index=0.583; P=0.00046) and Japan Clinical Oncology Group prognostic indices (c-index=0.611; P=0.03351). Conclusions: We developed and validated a straightforward model to predict survival in Caucasian AOA patients initiating first-line polychemotherapy. This model can contribute to inform clinical decision-making and optimise clinical trial design

Publicación: Prognostic significance of performing universal HER2 testing in cases of advanced gastric cancer

Trastuzumab significantly improves overall survival (OS) when added to cisplatin and fluoropyrimidine as a treatment for HER2-positive advanced gastric cancers (AGC). The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of the gradual implementation of HER2 testing on patient prognosis in a national registry of AGC. This Spanish National Cancer Registry includes cases who were consecutively recruited at 28 centers from January 2008 to January 2016. The effect of missing HER2 status was assessed using stratified Cox proportional hazards (PH) regression. The rate of HER2 testing increased steadily over time, from 58.3 % in 2008 to 92.9 % in 2016. HER2 was positive in 194 tumors (21.3 %). In the stratified Cox PH regression, each 1 % increase in patients who were not tested for HER2 at the institutions was associated with an approximately 0.3 % increase in the risk of death: hazard ratio, 1.0035 (CI 95 %, 1.001-1.005), P = 0.0019. Median OS was significantly lower at institutions with the highest proportions of patients who were not tested for HER2. Patients treated at centers that took longer to implement HER2 testing exhibited worse clinical outcomes. The speed of implementation behaves as a quality-of-care indicator. Reviewed guidelines on HER2 testing should be used to achieve this goal in a timely manner