Seasonal forecasts of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble

The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)-Phase II models are evaluated in terms of their retrospective seasonal forecast skill of the North Atlantic (NA) tropical cyclone (TC) activity, with a focus on TC frequency. The TC identification and tracking algorithm is modified to accommodate model data at daily resolution. It is also applied to three reanalysis products at the spatial and temporal resolution of the NMME-Phase II ensemble to allow for a more objective estimation of forecast skill. When used with the reanalysis data, the TC tracking generates realistic climatological distributions of the NA TC formation and tracks, and represents the interannual variability of the NA TC frequency quite well. Forecasts with the multi-model ensemble (MME) when initialized in April and later tend to have skill in predicting the NA seasonal TC counts (and TC days). At longer leads, the skill is low or marginal, although one of the models produces skillful forecasts when initialized as early as January and February. At short lead times, while demonstrating the highest skill levels the MME also tends to significantly outperform the individual models and attain skill comparable to the reanalysis. In addition, the short-lead MME forecasts are quite reliable. At regional scales, the skill is rather limited and mostly present in the western tropical NA and the Caribbean Sea. It is found that the overall MME forecast skill is limited by poor representation of the low-frequency variability in the predicted TC frequency, and large fluctuations in skill on decadal time scales. Addressing these deficiencies is thought to increase the value of the NMME ensemble in providing operational guidance

Hypersensitivity to Thromboxane Receptor Mediated Cerebral Vasomotion and CBF Oscillations during Acute NO-Deficiency in Rats

), NO-deficiency is often associated with activation of thromboxane receptors (TP). In the present study we hypothesized that in the absence of NO, overactivation of the TP-receptor mediated cerebrovascular signaling pathway contributes to the development of vasomotion and CBF oscillations. synthesis by ozagrel (10 mg/kg iv.) attenuated it. In isolated MCAs U-46619 in a concentration of 100 nM, which induced weak and stable contraction under physiological conditions, evoked sustained vasomotion in the absence of NO, which effect could be completely reversed by inhibition of Rho-kinase by 10 µM Y-27632.These results suggest that hypersensitivity of the TP-receptor – Rho-kinase signaling pathway contributes to the development of low frequency cerebral vasomotion which may propagate to vasospasm in pathophysiological states associated with NO-deficiency

Cyclic AMP signalling pathways in the regulation of uterine relaxation

Studying the mechanism(s) of uterine relaxation is important and will be helpful in the prevention of obstetric difficulties such as preterm labour, which remains a major cause of perinatal mortality and morbidity. Multiple signalling pathways regulate the balance between maintaining relative uterine quiescence during gestation, and the transition to the contractile state at the onset of parturition. Elevation of intracellular cyclic AMP promotes myometrial relaxation, and thus quiescence, via effects on multiple intracellular targets including calcium channels, potassium channels and myosin light chain kinase. A complete understanding of cAMP regulatory pathways (synthesis and hydrolysis) would assist in the development of better tocolytics to delay or inhibit preterm labour. Here we review the enzymes involved in cAMP homoeostasis (adenylyl cyclases and phosphodiesterases) and possible myometrial substrates for the cAMP dependent protein kinase. We must emphasise the need to identify novel pharmacological targets in human pregnant myometrium to achieve safe and selective uterine relaxation when this is indicated in preterm labour or other obstetric complications

Generic health literacy measurement instruments for children and adolescents:a systematic review of the literature

Background Health literacy is an important health promotion concern and recently children and adolescents have been the focus of increased academic attention. To assess the health literacy of this population, researchers have been focussing on developing instruments to measure their health literacy. Compared to the wider availability of instruments for adults, only a few tools are known for younger age groups. The objective of this study is to systematically review the field of generic child and adolescent health literacy measurement instruments that are currently available. Method A systematic literature search was undertaken in five databases (PubMed, CINAHL, PsycNET, ERIC, and FIS) on articles published between January 1990 and July 2015, addressing children and adolescents ?18 years old. Eligible articles were analysed, data was extracted, and synthesised according to review objectives. Results Fifteen generic health literacy measurement instruments for children and adolescents were identified. All, except two, are self-administered instruments. Seven are objective measures (performance-based tests), seven are subjective measures (self-reporting), and one uses a mixed-method measurement. Most instruments applied a broad and multidimensional understanding of health literacy. The instruments were developed in eight different countries, with most tools originating in the United States (n =?6). Among the instruments, 31 different components related to health literacy were identified. Accordingly, the studies exhibit a variety of implicit or explicit conceptual and operational definitions, and most instruments have been used in schools and other educational contexts. While the youngest age group studied was 7-year-old children within a parent-child study, there is only one instrument specifically designed for primary school children and none for early years. Conclusions Despite the reported paucity of health literacy research involving children and adolescents, an unexpected number of health literacy measurement studies in children?s populations was found. Most instruments tend to measure their own specific understanding of health literacy and not all provide sufficient conceptual information. To advance health literacy instruments, a much more standardised approach is necessary including improved reporting on the development and validation processes. Further research is required to improve health literacy instruments for children and adolescents and to provide knowledge to inform effective interventionspublishersversionPeer reviewe

Seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity in a high-atmospheric-resolution coupled prediction system

Seasonal forecast skill of the basinwide and regional tropical cyclone (TC) activity in an experimental coupled prediction system based on the ECMWF System 4 is assessed. As part of a collaboration between the Center for Ocean–Land–Atmosphere Studies (COLA) and the ECMWF called Project Minerva, the system is integrated at the atmospheric horizontal spectral resolutions of T319, T639, and T1279. Seven-month hindcasts starting from 1 May for the years 1980–2011 are produced at all three resolutions with at least 15 ensemble members. The Minerva system demonstrates statistically significant skill for retrospective forecasts of TC frequency and accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) in the North Atlantic (NA), eastern North Pacific (EP), and western North Pacific. While the highest scores overall are achieved in the North Pacific, the skill in the NA appears to be limited by an overly strong influence of the tropical Pacific variability. Higher model resolution improves skill scores for the ACE and, to a lesser extent, the TC frequency, even though the influence of large-scale climate variations on these TC activity measures is largely independent of resolution changes. The biggest gain occurs in transition from T319 to T639. Significant skill in regional TC forecasts is achieved over broad areas of the Northern Hemisphere. The highest-resolution hindcasts exhibit additional locations with skill in the NA and EP, including land-adjacent areas. The feasibility of regional intensity forecasts is assessed. In the presence of the coupled model biases, the benefits of high resolution for seasonal TC forecasting may be underestimated

Health literacy and substance use in young Swiss men.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of the present study was to describe health literacy and its association with substance use among young men. METHODS: The present study was part of the Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors that included 11,930 Swiss males participating in initial screening from August 2010 to July 2011. Self-completed questionnaires covered use of three substances and three components of health literacy. RESULTS: Roughly 22 % reported having searched the Internet for health information and 16 % for information on substances over the past 12 months. At-risk and not at-risk users of alcohol (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 2.50 and 1.46), tobacco (AOR = 2.51 and 1.79) and cannabis (AOR = 4.86 and 3.53) searched for information about substances significantly more often via the Internet than abstainers. Furthermore, at-risk users reported better knowledge of risks associated with substance use and a marginally better ability to understand health information than abstainers. CONCLUSIONS: Substance users appear to be more informed and knowledgeable about the risks of substance use than non-users. Consequently, interventions that focus only on information provision may be of limited benefit for preventing substance use