Long-term care cost drivers and expenditure projection to 2036 in Hong Kong

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Hong Kong's rapidly ageing population, characterised by one of the longest life expectancies and the lowest fertility rate in the world, is likely to drive long-term care (LTC) expenditure higher. This study aims to identify key cost drivers and derive quantitative estimates of Hong Kong's LTC expenditure to 2036.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We parameterised a macro actuarial simulation with data from official demographic projections, Thematic Household Survey 2004, Hong Kong's Domestic Health Accounts and other routine data from relevant government departments, Hospital Authority and other LTC service providers. Base case results were tested against a wide range of sensitivity assumptions.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Total projected LTC expenditure as a proportion of GDP reflected secular trends in the elderly dependency ratio, showing a shallow dip between 2004 and 2011, but thereafter yielding a monotonic rise to reach 3.0% by 2036. Demographic changes would have a larger impact than changes in unit costs on overall spending. Different sensitivity scenarios resulted in a wide range of spending estimates from 2.2% to 4.9% of GDP. The availability of informal care and the setting of formal care as well as associated unit costs were important drivers of expenditure.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The "demographic window" between the present and 2011 is critical in developing policies to cope with the anticipated burgeoning LTC burden, in concert with the related issues of health care financing and retirement planning.</p

Incidence of genital warts among the Hong Kong general adult population

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The objective of this study is to estimate the incidence of genital warts in Hong Kong and explore a way to establish a surveillance system for genital warts among the Hong Kong general population.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A total of 170 private doctors and all doctors working in the 5 local Social Hygiene Clinics (SHC) participated in this study. During the 14-day data collection period (January 5 through18, 2009), the participating doctors filled out a log-form on a daily basis to record the number of patients with genital warts. The total number of new cases of genital warts presented to private and public doctors in Hong Kong was projected using the stratification sampling method.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A total of 721 (0.94%) adults presented with genital warts to the participating doctors during the two-week study period, amongst them 73 (10.1%) were new cases. The projected number of new cases of genital warts among Hong Kong adults was 442 (297 male and 144 female) during the study period. The incidence of genital warts in Hong Kong was estimated to be 203.7 per 100,000 person-years (respectively 292.2 and 124.9 per 100,000 person-years for males and females).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The incidence of genital warts is high among adults in Hong Kong. The study demonstrates the importance of collecting surveillance data from both private and public sectors.</p

IEEE 1355-Based Architecture for an ATM Switch: A Case for Onboard Switching and Processing

The recent evolution of the communication scenario has profound implications for the role of communication satellites within the communication infrastructure. Indeed, it raises the possibility that the satellite be viewed not merely as a repeater but rather as a network node in its own right in a hopefully integrated space/terrestrial network. We draw attention to the new IEEE 1355 Standard for Heterogeneous Inter-Connect as a possible platform to support several onboard processing functions, including onboard communications and onboard ATM switching. The IEEE 1355 is a new serial bus standard which enables high- performance, scalable, modular, parallel systems to be constructed with low system integration cost. This IEEE 1355- based approach can satisfy many of the requirements of onboard communications and onboard ATM switching, e.g., size, flexibility, reliability, fault-tolerance, and high communication processing speeds. This is made possible by using the highly integrated 1355 chipsets and performing protocol processing with multiple transputers in parallel. The IEEE 1355 approach also allows for easy expandability owing to its inherent design modularity