A fuzzy decision‐making approach for portfolio management with direct real estate investment

This study incorporated expert knowledge into the classical quadratic programming approach, i.e., Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), through fuzzy set theory; in obtaining portfolio return optimization involving direct real estate investment. Two fuzzy mathematical programming models were uniquely specified and estimated in this study, namely, Zimmer‐mann's (2001) fuzzy tactical asset allocation (FTAA) flexible programming model and Ramik and Rimanek's (1985) FTAA robust programming model. These approaches try to overcome the drawbacks of traditional asset allocation models by including expert adjustment in the presence of imprecise information. The findings suggest that the fuzzy tactical asset allocation (FTAA Flexible Model), with the inclusion of expert judgments which contain information usually not found in historical data, is able to produce a portfolio just as efficient as traditional asset allocation models while minimizing the potential issues due to imprecision and vagueness of information. Meanwhile, the FTAA Robust Model proffers a more evenly‐distributed, yet with higher risks and lower returns, portfolio. Aside from the lack of emphasis on portfolio risks minimization, one reason attributed to such anomaly is the low level of returns of high‐risk stocks that are not selected by MPT and FTAA Flexible Models. It results in a unique situation where portfolio diversification does not necessarily guarantee an efficient investment decision. Santruka Šis tyrimas itraukia ekspertines žinias i klasikine kvadratinio programavimo metodika, pavyzdžiui, moderniaja portfelio valdymo teorija, per neapibrežtuju aibiu teorija, siekiant optimizuoti portfelio graža, apimant tiesiogines nekilnojamojo turto investicijas. Šiame tyrime išsamiai aprašomi ir ivertinami du neapibrežtojo matematinio programavimo modeliai. Tai Zimmermann (2001) neapibrežtasis aktyvu paskirstymo lankstusis programavimo modelis ir Ramik bei Rimanek (1985) neapibrežtasis aktyvu paskirstymo robustinis programavimo modelis. Juos taikant bandoma pašalinti tradiciniu aktyvu paskirstymo metodu trūkumus itraukiant ekspertu siūlomus pakeitimus nesant tikslios informacijos. Nustatyta, kad neapibrežtasis aktyvu paskirstymas (neapibrežtasis aktyvu paskirstymo lankstusis programavimo modelis) kartu su ekspertu vertinimais, paprastai apimančiais informacija, kurios negalima rasti tarp istoriniu duomenu, leidžia sudaryti toki pati efektyvu portfeli, kaip ir tradiciniai aktyvu paskirstymo modeliai, tačiau minimizuojant potencialius nesutarimus, kuriu atsiranda del netikslios ir neapibrežtos informacijos. Neapibrežtasis aktyvu paskirstymo robustinis programavimo modelis siūlo tolygiau paskirstyta, tačiau rizikingesni ir ne toki pelninga portfeli. Be portfelio rizikos minimizavimo trūkumo, dar viena priežastis, priskiriama prie šios anomalijos, yra maža dideles rizikos akciju graža, kuri nera pasirenkama moderniojoje portfelio valdymo teorijoje ir neapibrežtuju aktyvu paskirstymo lanksčiuosiuose programavimo modeliuose. Kaip rezultatas gaunama unikali situacija, kai portfelio diversifikavimas nebūtinai garantuoja efektyvu investavimo sprendima. First Publish Online: 18 Oct 201

I Know What You Know: Assumptions About Others' Knowledge and Their Effects on Message Construction

Current models of interpersonal communication assume that estimation of listener's knowledge is a basis for message formulation. By introducing methodological modifications to the Fussell and Krauss (1992) paradigm, the present study provided more definitive evidence for the use of knowledge estimation in message productions. in the first experiment, participants indicated whether they knew each of 30 landmarks (thus providing the actual distribution of knowledge) and estimated the proportion of students who would know them. Participants' estimation of the relative distribution of knowledge corresponded impressively with the actual distribution. In the second experiment, a different group of participants described each of the landmarks to an intended audience. The length of the descriptions and the frequency of naming a landmark were predicted by the estimated identifiability from Experiment 1. These results replicated previous findings in a different culture and addressed unresolved issues related to the role of knowledge estimation in communication

Analysis of telephone network traffic based on a complex user network

The traffic in telephone networks is analyzed in this paper. Unlike the classical traffic analysis where call blockings are due to the limited channel capacity, we consider here a more realistic cause for call blockings which is due to the way in which users are networked in a real-life human society. Furthermore, two kinds of user network, namely, the fully-connected user network and the scale-free network, are employed to model the way in which telephone users are connected. We show that the blocking probability is generally higher in the case of the scale-free user network, and that the carried traffic intensity is practically limited not only by the network capacity but also by the property of the user network.Comment: 17 pages, 9 figures, accepted for Physica

What are the opportunities for manufacturing in the “one belt one road” initiative? The case of Hong Kong’s textiles and clothing sector

The One Belt, One Road (hereafter OBOR) initiative is a development strategy launched by China in 2015. Its aim is to increase economic co-operation among countries along the China’s Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st Century Maritime Silk Road that connect Asia, Europe and Africa. As one of China’s important economic drivers, Hong Kong’s anticipated gains taking part in this initiative are substantial. This is particularly true for companies in the textiles and clothing (T&C) sectors, as the OBOR initiative offers investment opportunities in developing low-cost production bases in developing countries and promotes global trade. The main objective of this paper is twofold. First, it investigates how Hong Kong can strengthen its “superconnector” role, facilitating sustainable trade and development in the T&C industries among some OBOR countries. Specific measures are identified so that T&C companies in Hong Kong can establish and facilitate technological upgrades and transformation to potential production facilities in some developing countries under the OBOR initiative. This would contribute to the sustainable development of the T&C sectors in Hong Kong. Second, the study extends the gravity trade model to analyze the development of T&C trade patterns between Hong Kong and OBOR countries. Especially it covered some of the key factors not considered in previous studies, such as Logistics Performance Index (LPI), demographical factors, and those related to the business environment and policies. The analysis covers the impacts of country-specific, social, economic and supply chain factors on T&C trade. Based on the results, recommendations are provided to address how Hong Kong helps to facilitate trade and development of the T&C sectors under the OBOR initiative

Human Mental Models of Humanoid Robots

Effective communication between a person and a robot may depend on whether there exists a common ground of understanding between the two. In two experiments modelled after human-human studies we examined how people form a mental model of a robot’s factual knowledge. Participants estimated the robot’s knowledge by extrapolating from their own knowledge and from information about the robot’s origin and language. These results suggest that designers of humanoid robots must attend not only to the social cues that robots emit but also to the information people use to create mental models of a robot.published_or_final_versio

Age composition and survival of public housing stock in Hong Kong

Emerging notably in more developed regions, building stock ageing which is characterised by shrinking new completions and falling “mortality” has been posing challenges to various stakeholders in built environment. To find way out of this transition, we need to know how long buildings will last these days and the factors leading to their “mortality”. By using data from 1950s till to date, a comprehensive investigation is conducted to analyse the age composition and life expectancy of public housing stock in Hong Kong. What comes after are survival analysis and empirical analysis of those demolished to identify the key factors leading to demolition. Presented in this paper are the preliminary findings as well as the research agenda on the theme to model age composition and survival of both private and public building stocks in Hong Kong and other similar cities in Asia Pacific Rim such as Adelaide and Singapore, together with research activities to formulate policies for sustainable urban management

Differential Emphases on Modernity and Confucian Values in Social Categorization: The Case of Hong Kong Adolescents in Political Transition

This study investigated if modernity and Confucian values were ingroup's positively valued distinctiveness for Hong Kong adolescents with different social identities. Participants (236 Hong Kong adolescents) filled out a questionnaire which tapped social identity and intergroup perception. They also participated in a card-sorting activity in which they decided if any of 20 attributes (e.g., advanced, respecting collective will) could be used to characterize a specific ethnic-social group (e.g., mainland Chinese, Hongkongers, Americans). Multidimensional scaling performed on the card-sorting data resulted in a two-dimensional solution. Emphasis on Dimension I (modernity) correlated with positive perception of Hong Kong and Hong Kong people while emphasis on Dimension 2 (Confucian values) correlated with positive perception of China and Chinese. In addition, compared to adolescents who identified themselves as Chinese or Chinese-Hongkongers, those who identified themselves as Hongkongers or Hongkonger-Chinese placed more emphasis on modernity and less on Confucian values. The results were discussed with reference to Tajfel's theory of social identity. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved

Perceived Cultural Importance and Actual Self-Importance of Values in Cultural Identification

Cross-cultural psychologists assume that core cultural values define to a large extent what a culture is. Typically, core values are identified through an actual self-importance approach, in which core values are those that members of the culture as a group strongly endorse. In this article, the authors propose a perceived cultural importance approach to identifying core values, in which core values are values that members of the culture as a group generally believe to be important in the culture. In 5 studies, the authors examine the utility of the perceived cultural importance approach. Results consistently showed that, compared with values of high actual self-importance, values of high perceived Cultural importance play a more important role in cultural identification. These findings have important implications for conceptualizing and measuring cultures.Psychology, SocialSSCI53ARTICLE2337-3549