A comparison of in-sample forecasting methods

In-sample forecasting is a recent continuous modification of well-known forecasting methods based on aggregated data. These aggregated methods are known as age-cohort methods in demography, economics, epidemiology and sociology and as chain ladder in non-life insurance. Data is organized in a two-way table with age and cohort as indices, but without measures of exposure. It has recently been established that such structured forecasting methods based on aggregated data can be interpreted as structured histogram estimators. Continuous in-sample forecasting transfers these classical forecasting models into a modern statistical world including smoothing methodology that is more efficient than smoothing via histograms. All in-sample forecasting estimators are collected and their performance is compared via a finite sample simulation study. All methods are extended via multiplicative bias correction. Asymptotic theory is being developed for the histogram-type method of sieves and for the multiplicatively corrected estimators. The multiplicative bias corrected estimators improve all other known in-sample forecasters in the simulation study. The density projection approach seems to have the best performance with forecasting based on survival densities being the runner-up

Examining the Impact of the SafeCare Parent-Infant Interaction Module on the Quantity and Content of Maternal-Infant Directed Utterances

Abstract Sanjana S. Mammen Examining the SafeCare Parent-Infant Interaction Module’s Impact on the Quantity and Content of Maternal-Infant Directed Utterances (Under the direction of Shannon Self Brown, PhD) Positive parenting skills reduce risk for child maltreatment. The Parent-Infant Interaction (PII) module of SafeCare was designed to promote positive parent-child relationships; however, little research has examined its impact on parent-infant utterances. Past research has indicated that a rich parent-child language environment predicts literacy skills and academic achievement, so the present research studies how PII impacts positive maternal infant-directed utterances. Three dyads with various risk levels with infants aged younger than 9-months were offered PII training and a short video modeling positive parent-infant communication. Multiple-probe, single-case experimental design yielded data with several positive trends for maternal-infant utterances, but findings were inconsistent during all conditions. Conversely, following the video, improved utterances were demonstrated consistently across all activities and dyads. These pilot data render several future studies relevant to further our understanding of PII’s impact on maternal-infant communication broadly, including more rigorous research designs and measures to further study this important outcome

A COMPREHENSIVE REVIEW ON COMORBID DEPRESSION IN PATIENTS WITH EPILEPSY

Epilepsy is one of the common neurological disorders that are seen worldwide. It can also affect a person's social, mental, and physiological well-being and thus restricts and disables the common living of man. Depression as such has been well reported in patients with epilepsy, and also depression itself remains a factor that can lead to the development of epilepsy. Increased rates of suicidal tendencies are also associated with depression both in men and women. Depression is further extended in affecting the quality of life in epileptic patients. Depressive rates are found to have a higher value in epileptic patients when compared with the normal population. This article aims to produce a comprehensive review of the epidemiological considerations, clinical findings and management strategies for depression associated with epilepsy

Iron homeostasis: new players, newer insights

Although iron is a relatively abundant element in the universe, it is estimated that more than 2 billion people worldwide suffer from iron deficiency anemia. Iron deficiency results in impaired production of iron-containing proteins, the most prominent of which is hemoglobin. Cellular iron deficiency inhibits cell growth and subsequently leads to cell death. Hemochromatosis, an inherited disorder results in disproportionate absorption of iron and the extra iron builds up in tissues resulting in organ damage. As both iron deficiency and iron overload have adverse effects, cellular and systemic iron homeostasis is critically important. Recent advances in the field of iron metabolism have led to newer understanding of the pathways involved in iron homeostasis and the diseases which arise from alteration in the regulators. Although insight into this complex regulation of the proteins involved in iron homeostasis has been obtained mainly through animal studies, it is most likely that this knowledge can be directly extrapolated to humans

Substrate doping: A strategy for enhancing reactivity on gold nanocatalysts by tuning sp bands

We suggest that the reactivity of Au nanocatalysts can be greatly increased by doping the oxide substrate on which they are placed with an electron donor. To demonstrate this, we perform density functional theory calculations on a model system consisting of a 20-atom gold cluster placed on a MgO substrate doped with Al atoms. We show that not only does such substrate doping switch the morphology of the nanoparticles from the three-dimensional tetrahedral form to the two-dimensional planar form, but it also significantly lowers the barrier for oxygen dissociation by an amount proportional to the dopant concentration. At a doping level of 2.78%, the dissociation barrier is reduced by more than half, which corresponds to a speeding up of the oxygen dissociation rate by five orders of magnitude at room temperature. This arises from a lowering in energy of the s and p states of Au. The d states are also lowered in energy, however, this by itself would have tended to reduce reactivity. We propose that a suitable measure of the reactivity of Au nanoparticles is the difference in energy of sp and d states

Health-related internet use among adolescents with uncontrolled persistent asthma

Objectives To describe internet use for health information among adolescents with uncontrolled persistent asthma, and to examine whether health-related internet use is associated with responsibility for home asthma management. Methods We analyzed baseline data from the School-Based Asthma Care for Teens (SB-ACT) Trial, which included adolescents (12–16 years) in an urban school district who had uncontrolled persistent asthma per caregiver report. We asked adolescents whether they had ever used the Internet to look for health or medical information (Y/N). Teens then described family responsibility for 9 asthma management tasks (e.g. full caregiver responsibility, shared responsibility, or full teen responsibility). We examined responsibility sum scores in addition to responsibility for individual management tasks. We used bivariate and multivariate analyses to compare health-related internet use with participant characteristics, teen-reported asthma symptoms, and management responsibility. Results We examined data for 425 adolescents (mean age 13.4 years). Almost half (45%) reported seeking health information on the Internet. In adjusted analyses, health-related internet use was strongly associated with teen responsibility (sum score and tasks relating to carrying and using medications); internet use was also more likely among teens who were older, female, or reported uncontrolled disease. Conclusions Adolescents with persistent asthma who share responsibility for home management or report uncontrolled disease are more likely to seek health information online. Future interventions to support teens who co-manage asthma should work to engage patients in both clinical and digital spaces, and ensure that all patients can access accurate, patient-centered asthma information when needed

Obstacles and Challenges to Implementing Multi-departmental QI at a Large, Academic Training Center-Lessons Learned from a HCV Screening Program

Objectives: We aimed to double the HCV screening rate of ‘baby-boomers’ admitted to the medicine teaching service at Methodist Hospital over the course of 6 months and demonstrate improved linkage to care for HCV RNA+ individuals. Initial efforts were a collaboration between Emergency Medicine, where faculty had experience implementing an HIV screening program, and Gastroenterology, a key stakeholder in linkage to care. Our pilot period coincided with new state regulations mandating that hospitals implement HCV screening for inpatients. These new regulations dramatically altered the scope and goals of the project.https://jdc.jefferson.edu/patientsafetyposters/1030/thumbnail.jp

Pre-transplant reduction of isohaemagglutinin titres by donor group plasma infusion does not reduce the incidence of pure red cell aplasia in major ABO-mismatched transplants

Major ABO incompatibility in stem cell transplant recipients has been associated with pure red cell aplasia (PRCA). Reduction of incompatible isohaemagglutinin titres pre-transplant by various methods has been thought to reduce the incidence of PRCA. Our data suggest that pre-transplant reduction of incompatible isohaemagglutinin titres by donor group plasma infusion does not reduce the incidence of PRCA. We also failed to find any relationship between pre-transplant ABO isohaemagglutinin titre and the risk of developing PRCA

PAC-Bayesian Bounds for Randomized Empirical Risk Minimizers

The aim of this paper is to generalize the PAC-Bayesian theorems proved by Catoni in the classification setting to more general problems of statistical inference. We show how to control the deviations of the risk of randomized estimators. A particular attention is paid to randomized estimators drawn in a small neighborhood of classical estimators, whose study leads to control the risk of the latter. These results allow to bound the risk of very general estimation procedures, as well as to perform model selection

Bronchoscopic survillance during early postoperative period after lung transplantation

Background: Lung transplant has become an accepted modality of treatment of patients with end stage pulmonary disease, establishing protocols for improving survival in these patients is the need of the hour. The aim of this study was to assess the use of bronchoscopic surveillance during early post-operative period after lung transplantation.Methods: It is a hospital based retrospective study; the study was carried out in a lung transplant centre located in Chennai, India.  A total of eight cases of single lung transplantation were done during the period of one year. Six patients were selected based on the inclusion criteria and the use of bronchoscopy during the immediate post-operative period followed by bronchoscopy during the early hours of everyday for the first week and the success in reduction of immediate post-operative infection and observations has been analysed.Results: In analysis of all the six cases, the positive signs of early morning bronchoscopy done were identified, mucus plugs which contribute to significant hypoxemia and morbidity were not observed in any of the patients.  New patch was also not observed in any of these patients. Culture positivity from the donor lung carrying over to the recipient was observed in just one of these patients.Conclusions: This protocol based frequent bronchoscopy prevents ‘Surprise’ patches in the lungs. Performance of Broncho Alveolar Lavage on a regular basis avoided the possibility of infections developing by early screening and aided as a tool for identification of acute neo lung rejection