Forecasting the term structure of crude oil futures prices with neural networks

The paper contributes to the rare literature modeling term structure of crude oil markets. We explain term structure of crude oil prices using dynamic Nelson-Siegel model, and propose to forecast them with the generalized regression framework based on neural networks. The newly proposed framework is empirically tested on 24 years of crude oil futures prices covering several important recessions and crisis periods. We find 1-month, 3-month, 6-month and 12-month-ahead forecasts obtained from focused time-delay neural network to be significantly more accurate than forecasts from other benchmark models. The proposed forecasting strategy produces the lowest errors across all times to maturity

Influence of modelling disorder on Hirshfeld atom refinement results of an organo-gold(I) compound.

Details of the validation of disorder modelling with Hirshfeld atom refinement (HAR) for a previously investigated organo-gold(I) compound are presented here. The impact of refining disorder on HAR results is discussed using an analysis of the differences of dynamic structure factors. These dynamic structure factor differences are calculated from thermally smeared quantum mechanical electron densities based on wavefunctions that include or exclude electron correlation and relativistic effects. When disorder is modelled, the electron densities stem from a weighted superposition of two (or more) different conformers. Here this is shown to impact the relative importance of electron correlation and relativistic effect estimates expressed by the structure factor magnitudes. The role of disorder modelling is also compared with the effect of the treatment of hydrogen anisotropic displacement parameter (ADP) values and atomic anharmonicity of the gold atom. The analysis of ADP values of gold and disordered carbon atoms showed that the effect of disorder significantly altered carbon ADP values and did not influence those of the gold atom

Aurophilic Interactions Studied by Quantum Crystallography.

This is the first use of a wave-function-based crystallographic method to characterize aurophilic interactions from X-ray diffraction data. Theoretical calculations previously suggested the importance of electron correlation and dispersion forces, but no influence of relativistic corrections to the Au...Au interaction energy was found. In this study, we confirm the importance of relativistic corrections in the characterization of aurophilic interactions in addition to electron correlation and dispersion

Nephrotic syndrome unfavorable course correlates with downregulation of podocyte vascular endothelial growth factor receptor (VEGFR)-2

Idiopathic nephrotic syndrome (INS) in children is most commonly caused by primary glomerulopathies. Morphological lesions observed in INS might be secondary to inflammatory factors of mainly extra-renal origin. The vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) family is regarded as playing a crucial role in this pathomechanism. The aim of the present work was to analyze the possible relation between VEGF-C and VEGF receptor (VEGFR)-2 expressions at electron microscopy level in different INS cases. The study group comprised 18 children with minimal change disease (MCD), 30 patients diagnosed with diffuse mesangial proliferation (DMP) and 11 subjects with focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS). An indirect immunohistochemical assay employing monoclonal anti-VEGF-C and anti-VEGFR-2 antibodies was applied in the study. The immunohistochemical expression of VEGF-C within podocyte cytoplasm was significantly increased in DMP subjects who were resistant to steroids and in all FSGS patients compared to MCD children and controls (p < 0.05). VEGF-C over-expression in these cases was followed by downregulation of VEGFR-2. Nephrotic syndrome progression correlates with the downregulation of podocyte VEGFR-2. For this reason, decreased VEGFR-2 expression in the podocyte processes of children with idiopathic nephrotic syndrome might be regarded as a potent factor of unfavorable prognosis. (Folia Histochemica et Cytobiologica 2011; Vol. 49, No. 3, pp. 472&#8211;478

Current use and legal status of crop protection inputs

This deliverable presents the results of the survey carried out in the frame of Tasks 3.1. and Task 5.1 in the Horizon 2020 Project Organic PLUS. A common table/questionnaire for both tasks was used in order to map the use of contentious inputs linked to plant protection (mainly Cu, S and mineral oils), and the use of peat, plastic and fertilisers used in growing, in 10 countries participating in Organic-PLUS (Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Norway, Poland, Spain, Turkey and UK). The survey was carried out mainly by interviewing one to three experienced advisors per crop, asking them to fill in a table describing a typical organic production of the relevant crop, emphasising the use of various inputs. In some cases the survey was based on already available data of the Organic-PLUS partner while an online questionnaire was also developed and used (e.g. CUT for Poland). The collected raw material is presented in a separeate report, the D3.1 Annex I. Statistical data concerning the organic farming in the countries under study are also presented. The deliverable includes also documentation of current policies and legal status of the use of contentious plant protection products in organic farming with emphasis on potato, tomato, citrus and olive crops. Copper-based products are used in plant protection as bactericides and fungicides. Copper is the only active ingredient with a strong antimicrobial effect and a wide range of action that is approved for use in organic farming particularly for grape, potato and apple crops. Recently, the demonstrated adverse effects on the environment (on soil organisms and auxiliary species) have led to a reduction in its use in several European countries. The current regulation in EU related to the use of copper in organic production sets the limit of up to 6 kg copper per ha per year. For perennial crops, Member States may, by derogation, provide that the 6 kg copper limit can be exceeded in a given year provided that the average quantity actually used over a 5-year period consisting of that year and of the four preceding years does not exceed 6 kg. Among the investigated crops (mainly citrus, olive, tomato, potato, strawberry), large amounts of copper are used mainly by Mediterranean growers in citrus, olive and potato. For crops like citrus and olives the limit of 6 kg per ha and per year may not be always respected. Tomato producers apply high amounts of copper in winter crops (greenhouses). In the case of Norway, the use of copper and mineral oil were not permitted for organic growing until March 2017, when the EC regulations were implemented. However, the national limit for copper in Norway is 4 kg per ha and year, thus it is easier for these growers to comply with lower limits of copper use than those in EU. In Denmark, copper is not used in organic agriculture at all because national authorities have not (yet) been asked to approve any commercial product containing copper, or they have not approved it. Many alternatives to copper are under development, but few are already available on the market, and fewer still are currently used by growers to a substantial extent. Alternatives with a low concentration of copper ion are demonstrating good levels of efficacy. Possibly, a reduction of the concentration of copper, together with more efficient formulations, could reduce the presence of copper in the crops (and soils). Nevertheless, abandoning copper cannot be easily achieved through a simple substitution strategy (for instance, replacing copper by biocontrol products); it requires a more or less profound reconstruction of the crop production system, including changing cultivars (in favour of resistant ones), developing prophylaxis and sanitation measures, adjusting fertilisation, etc. This requires an integrative approach, which is still under-developed. Regarding sulphur, this substance is very common for organic vegetable growers, especially for greenhouse growers. The uses of sulphur can move from 10 to 100 kg/ha/year depending on the production system and the incidence of pests. However, it is seldom considered that the use of sulphur is problematic, except as a main component of sulphites in wine production. It is a sort of universal phytosanitary product: repellent to pests, killer of mites, and effective against powdery mildews. However, it is not selective, and it has harmful effects on beneficial arthropods. So, the use of sulphur can limit biological control. Alternatives to sulphur are not currently applied mainly for economic reasons since sulphur is cheap compared to other compounds. Moreover, since sulphur can be an alternative to mineral oil, its use is not easily reduced. Mineral oils are applied to exclusively control insects and mites in citrus and olive orchards and occasionally in tomato. There are not many data available for the use of mineral oils but from the data presented it was found that in some cases (e.g. in citrus) they are considered as the main contentious input. The wide spectrum of this substance makes it more versatile than other alternatives. In other cases, mineral oils are of minor use, and can easily be replaced by organic oils

Management of poultry manure in Poland : current state and future perspectives

This review aimed to analyse the current state of management practices for poultry manure in Poland and present future perspectives in terms of technologies allowing closing the loops for circular economy, and thus recovery of nutrients and energy. The scope of the review focused primarily on: (1) the analysis of poultry production and generation of poultry manure with special references to quantities, properties (e.g. fertilizing properties), seasonality, etc.; (2) the overview of current practices and methods for managing poultry manure including advantages and limitations; (3) the analysis of potential and realistic threats and risk related to managing poultry manure, and also (4) the analysis of promising technologies for converting poultry manure into added value products and energy. The review addressed the following technologies: composting of poultry manure to obtain fertilizers and soil improvers, anaerobic digestion of poultry manure for energy recovery, and also pyrolysis of poultry manure into different types of biochar that can be applied in agriculture, horticulture and industry. Poultry manure is rich in macro- and micronutrients but also can contain various contaminants such as antibiotics or pesticides, and thus posing a realistic threat to soil and living organisms when applied to soil directly or after biological treatment. The main challenge in poultry manure processing is to assure sufficient closing of carbon, nitrogen and phosphorous loops and safe application to soil

Hemifacial microsomia – a literature review

Hemifacial microsomia is a congenital syndrome of the I and II branchial arches caracterized by asymmetrical hypoplasia of the facial skeleton (mandible, maxilla, temporomandibular joint, zygoma, temporal bone), external and middle ear and facial soft tissues. The phenotype may be variable, including additional craniofacial and general anomalies. The treatment in most cases is long-lasting and interdisciplinary

Current use of peat, plastic and fertiliser inputs in organic horticultural and arable crops across Europe

The use of contentious inputs linked to plant protection, and the use of peat, plastic and fertilisers used in growing have been mapped in selected organically produced crops in 10 countries across Europe. This report refers the output of this mapping. It shows that organic production has not come very far to phase out peat or plastic. The consumption of these materials seems to be quite comparable to non-organic production systems.The main utilisation of peat is for production of young plants (transplants). Most organic growers purchase plants e.g. for citrus, olives and grafted tomatoes and the growing media has usually a high content of peat. Vegetable transplants are also commonly produced by special growers. Peat is also used for casing layers for organic mushrooms, and as a potting media for aromatic plants. For plastic, the use is extensive for mulching and to protect crops against frost, less often for insect protection. The use of plastic materials to attach young plants to sticks etc., and to protect grafting wounds in young trees, was also observed. While not big in volume, this use may contribute to micro-plastic waste. Plastic is also very common for solarisation and for tunnels and greenhouses, especially in southern countries. In northern countries,greenhouses are usually made of other materials than plastic. Further research within the Organic PLUS project will reveal farmers and growers who have worked with promising alternatives and develop these further. For applied fertilisers, which in our context need to be approved for use in certified organic production, the application of commercial products seems to be higher in some countries, e.g. Greece, whereas other countries seem to use much less. This may be explained by economic conditions of the growers, cultural differences, by the extent of organic production and development of a market for such products, by the availability of national fertiliser Companies and by other factors. Information about raw materials used to produce these fertilisers is commonly not readily available but may sometimes be found under information about the company’s history. These website sections also reveal that fusions of fertiliser Companies occur rapidly. Many fertiliser products seem to be derived from residuals from sugar or starch production. Horn grid, meat and bone meal, blood meal and feather meals are well known organic fertilisers but were not so much observed in this study. Instead, we observed that animal hides are an important raw material for organic N fertilisers. Seaweed products are quite common, whereas fish-based products were only mentioned from UK. Non-organic manure (from conventional farms) is used in all countries, commonly as pelletised dry poultry manure