Analysis for time discrete approximations of blow-up solutions of semilinear parabolic equations

We prove a posteriori error estimates for time discrete approximations, for semilinear parabolic equations with solutions that might blow up in finite time. In particular we consider the backward Euler and the Crank–Nicolson methods. The main tools that are used in the analysis are the reconstruction technique and energy methods combined with appropriate fixed point arguments. The final estimates we derive are conditional and lead to error control near the blow up time

Galerkin and Runge–Kutta methods: unified formulation, a posteriori error estimates and nodal superconvergence

Abstract. We unify the formulation and analysis of Galerkin and Runge–Kutta methods for the time discretization of parabolic equations. This, together with the concept of reconstruction of the approximate solutions, allows us to establish a posteriori superconvergence estimates for the error at the nodes for all methods. 1

A new accuracy measure based on bounded relative error for time series forecasting

Many accuracy measures have been proposed in the past for time series forecasting comparisons. However, many of these measures suffer from one or more issues such as poor resistance to outliers and scale dependence. In this paper, while summarising commonly used accuracy measures, a special review is made on the symmetric mean absolute percentage error. Moreover, a new accuracy measure called the Unscaled Mean Bounded Relative Absolute Error (UMBRAE), which combines the best features of various alternative measures, is proposed to address the common issues of existing measures. A comparative evaluation on the proposed and related measures has been made with both synthetic and real-world data. The results indicate that the proposed measure, with user selectable benchmark, performs as well as or better than other measures on selected criteria. Though it has been commonly accepted that there is no single best accuracy measure, we suggest that UMBRAE could be a good choice to evaluate forecasting methods, especially for cases where measures based on geometric mean of relative errors, such as the geometric mean relative absolute error, are preferred

AF-MSCs fate can be regulated by culture conditions

Human mesenchymal stem cells (hMSCs) represent a population of multipotent adherent cells able to differentiate into many lineages. In our previous studies, we isolated and expanded fetal MSCs from second-trimester amniotic fluid (AF) and characterized them based on their phenotype, pluripotency and proteomic profile. In the present study, we investigated the plasticity of these cells based on their differentiation, dedifferentiation and transdifferentiation potential in vitro. To this end, adipocyte-like cells (AL cells) derived from AF-MSCs can regain, under certain culture conditions, a more primitive phenotype through the process of dedifferentiation. Dedifferentiated AL cells derived from AF-MSCs (DAF-MSCs), gradually lost the expression of adipogenic markers and obtained similar morphology and differentiation potential to AF-MSCs, together with regaining the pluripotency marker expression. Moreover, a comparative proteomic analysis of AF-MSCs, AL cells and DAF-MSCs revealed 31 differentially expressed proteins among the three cell populations. Proteins, such as vimentin, galectin-1 and prohibitin that have a significant role in stem cell regulatory mechanisms, were expressed in higher levels in AF-MSCs and DAF-MSCs compared with AL cells. We next investigated whether AL cells could transdifferentiate into hepatocyte-like cells (HL cells) directly or through a dedifferentiation step. AL cells were cultured in hepatogenic medium and 4 days later they obtained a phenotype similar to AF-MSCs, and were termed as transdifferentiated AF-MSCs (TRAF-MSCs). This finding, together with the increase in pluripotency marker expression, indicated the adaption of a more primitive phenotype before transdifferentiation. Additionally, we observed that AF-, DAF- and TRAF-MSCs displayed similar clonogenic potential, secretome and proteome profile. Considering the easy access to this fetal cell source, the plasticity of AF-MSCs and their potential to dedifferentiate and transdifferentiate, AF may provide a valuable tool for cell therapy and tissue engineering applications

Extrapolation for Time-Series and Cross-Sectional Data

Extrapolation methods are reliable, objective, inexpensive, quick, and easily automated. As a result, they are widely used, especially for inventory and production forecasts, for operational planning for up to two years ahead, and for long-term forecasts in some situations, such as population forecasting. This paper provides principles for selecting and preparing data, making seasonal adjustments, extrapolating, assessing uncertainty, and identifying when to use extrapolation. The principles are based on received wisdom (i.e., experts’ commonly held opinions) and on empirical studies. Some of the more important principles are:• In selecting and preparing data, use all relevant data and adjust the data for important events that occurred in the past.• Make seasonal adjustments only when seasonal effects are expected and only if there is good evidence by which to measure them.• In extrapolating, use simple functional forms. Weight the most recent data heavily if there are small measurement errors, stable series, and short forecast horizons. Domain knowledge and forecasting expertise can help to select effective extrapolation procedures. When there is uncertainty, be conservative in forecasting trends. Update extrapolation models as new data are received.• To assess uncertainty, make empirical estimates to establish prediction intervals.• Use pure extrapolation when many forecasts are required, little is known about the situation, the situation is stable, and expert forecasts might be biased

Variational Multiscale Stabilization and the Exponential Decay of Fine-scale Correctors

This paper addresses the variational multiscale stabilization of standard finite element methods for linear partial differential equations that exhibit multiscale features. The stabilization is of Petrov-Galerkin type with a standard finite element trial space and a problem-dependent test space based on pre-computed fine-scale correctors. The exponential decay of these correctors and their localisation to local cell problems is rigorously justified. The stabilization eliminates scale-dependent pre-asymptotic effects as they appear for standard finite element discretizations of highly oscillatory problems, e.g., the poor $L^2$ approximation in homogenization problems or the pollution effect in high-frequency acoustic scattering

Forecasting Player Behavioral Data and Simulating in-Game Events

Understanding player behavior is fundamental in game data science. Video games evolve as players interact with the game, so being able to foresee player experience would help to ensure a successful game development. In particular, game developers need to evaluate beforehand the impact of in-game events. Simulation optimization of these events is crucial to increase player engagement and maximize monetization. We present an experimental analysis of several methods to forecast game-related variables, with two main aims: to obtain accurate predictions of in-app purchases and playtime in an operational production environment, and to perform simulations of in-game events in order to maximize sales and playtime. Our ultimate purpose is to take a step towards the data-driven development of games. The results suggest that, even though the performance of traditional approaches such as ARIMA is still better, the outcomes of state-of-the-art techniques like deep learning are promising. Deep learning comes up as a well-suited general model that could be used to forecast a variety of time series with different dynamic behaviors

Evaluation of bottom-up and top-down strategies for aggregated forecasts: state space models and arima applications

Abstract. In this research, we consider monthly series from the M4 competition to study the relative performance of top-down and bottom-up strategies by means of implementing forecast automation of state space and ARIMA models. For the bottomup strategy, the forecast for each series is developed individually and then these are combined to produce a cumulative forecast of the aggregated series. For the top-down strategy, the series or components values are first combined and then a single forecast is determined for the aggregated series. Based on our implementation, state space models showed a higher forecast performance when a top-down strategy is applied. ARIMA models had a higher forecast performance for the bottom-up strategy. For state space models the top-down strategy reduced the overall error significantly. ARIMA models showed to be more accurate when forecasts are first determined individually. As part of the development we also proposed an approach to improve the forecasting procedure of aggregation strategies