Combined Calculated, Experimental and Determinated and Probable Justifications for Strength of Trunk Crude Oil Pipelines

Within the long-term Russian and foreign practice, deterministic methods of basic strength calculations have been developed and are being developed at the design stage of long-distance pipelines. Occurring operational damages, failures, accidents, and catastrophes show there are no direct substantiations for the prevention of such emergencies in the framework of existing calculations. In order to respond to these situations, the following are developed: additional precise deterministic, static, and probabilistic calculations with linear and nonlinear criteria of deformation and fracture mechanics, complex diagnostics of the state of the pipeline using in-line pigs, and laboratory, model, bench, and field tests of pipelines with technological and operational defects. The results of systematic scientific research and applied developments are presented

Analysis of Terrorist Attack Scenarios and Measures for Countering Terrorist Threats

The chapter will present the classification of the types of modern terrorism and describe scenarios and probabilistic models of ordinary, technological, and the so-called intelligent terrorism that are distinguished by their triggering events, propagation modes, damaging factors, probabilities, and consequences. A comparative assessment of these three types of terrorism is presented. Dynamic three-sided models allow assessing the situation from standpoints of terrorists and law enforcement agencies, the administration of the complex engineering system, and analyzing actions and counteractions of various sides involved. A new comprehensive approach to ensuring complex engineering system security is described. This approach is focused not only on the development of protection barriers and safeguards against predetermined list of design-basis scenarios of terrorist attacks but also on increasing the system’s resilience toward beyond design-basis attack scenarios

Probabilistic Analysis of Transportation Systems for Oil and Natural Gas

In this chapter, the need of probabilistic modeling for design, construction, and operation of oil and gas pipelines is justified. Such modeling should use information and databases on deterministic and statistical dependencies related to deformation, damage accumulation, failure, fracture accidents, and catastrophes. The probabilistic design equations and their parameters for the characteristics of strength, durability, fracture toughness, risks of accidents, and manmade catastrophes are given. The economic efficiency of pipeline management based on controlling probabilistic characteristics through conducting diagnostic, repair-and-renewal operations while ensuring the acceptable levels of reliability and safety parameters is substantiated. The results of studies in the field of statistics and probabilities of emergency situations during manufacturing, construction, and operation conducted by Russian and foreign specialists are presented

Laboratory, Bench, and Full-Scale Researches of Strength, Reliability, and Safety of High-Power Hydro Turbines

Large hydropower plants (HPPs) are categorized as critically and strategically important infrastructure facilities in industrialized countries. Therefore, the issues of ensuring HPPs safety are of paramount importance. In this chapter, the basic aspects of the safety analysis of HPPs, calculation and experimental substantiation of the strength, and resource and reliability of the main equipment are discussed. The scientific and technical measures to ensure safety of HPPs are presented. As a defining measure of safety, it is proposed to ensure the protection of HPPs from severe accidents and disasters according to risk criteria. The main provisions of the risk assessment are presented on the basis of a sequential analysis of loads, features of stress-strain states, characteristics of mechanical properties, and limit states of hydraulic equipment of HPPs. The issues of calculation and experimental evaluation of hydro turbine’s resource, which limit the safety of HPPs, are considered. The features of technical diagnosis of hydraulic turbines are considered; characteristic defects and damages are described. The main provisions of the estimated residual life of hydro turbines are presented. The results of the risk estimates of HPPs and hydro turbine resource are given

Probabilistic Predictive Modelling for Complex System Risk Assessments

The risks assessment is described by the action of estimating the probability distribution functions of possible successes or failures of a system during a given prediction period. Typical probabilistic predictive models and methods for solving risks prediction problems are described, and their classification is given. Priority development directions for risks prediction in standard system processes and their implementation procedures are proposed. The reported examples demonstrate the effects and interpretation of the predictive results obtained. Notes: 1. System is a combination of interacting elements organized to achieve one or more stated purposes (according to ISO/IEC/IEEE 15288 “Systems and software engineering—System life cycle processes”). 2. Risk is defined as the effect of uncertainty on objectives considering consequences. An effect is a deviation from the expected — positive and/or negative (according to ISO Guide 73)

Probability Modeling Taking into Account Nonlinear Processes of a Deformation and Fracture for the Equipment of Nuclear Power Plants

At the solution of integrated tasks of strength, safe life and service safety maintenance for the nuclear power plants (NPP) equipment with slow reactors—water-moderated power reactors (WMPR) of VVER type and channel-type graphite-moderated power reactors (GMPR) of RBMK type arise necessity of physical and mathematical modeling of nonlinear processes of a deformation, fracture and damage at nonlinear probability statement. First of all, it concerns deriving determined, statistical and probabilistic characteristics of mechanical properties of reactor materials. Expectations and variation factors of mechanical properties’ characteristics obtained from experimental researches are inducted into the equations for the verification calculations at determination of static and cyclic strength margins with the use of nominal and local stresses and strains. For the improved determined and probability analysis of these margins modeling experimental researches of stress-strain states of the analyzed equipment are conducted. Special attention at such tests is given to concentration factors and variation factors of loading conditions. The final stage of estimation of basic normative and verification calculation accuracy at laboratory, modeling and test bench researches are full-scale pre-operational tests (cold-hot running-in) of pilot nuclear reactors with the use of the experimental mechanics methods. The conditions of safety service of the NPP equipment are estimated taking into account factors of reaching limiting states by criteria of risk of initiation of emergency situations

Hybrid Modeling of Offshore Platforms’ Stress-Deformed and Limit States Taking into Account Probabilistic Parameters

Offshore platforms should be referred to critically and strategically important objects of a technosphere due to technological and operational challenges, on the one hand, and the danger potential level, on the other hand. Environmental, social and economic losses occurred over several decades of accidents and disasters in unique Great Britain, Norwegian. The Russian and the USA platforms were evaluated in death of dozens of operators, destruction of platforms, environment contamination and hence in multi-bullion losses. All of these indicate insufficiency of currently taken engineering solutions, providing structure strength, operational life and safety. The scientific, design, expert and supervising organizations in Russia and in the world are developing and improving mathematical and physical methods, implementing the probabilistic formulations for accidents and disasters, risk assessment and risks reduction on offshore platforms. The solutions of the following problems are included: extension of the comprehensive computational and experimental strength, operational life and survivability analysis to the cases of nonroutine events, accidental and catastrophic conditions; numerical justification of modelling of critical elements, zones and points with the maximum tension, deformations and damages occurring under impacts of external extreme seismic, ice, wind, low temperature; implementation of comprehensive diagnostic methods for damage states evaluation within nonlinear and probabilistic fracture mechanics; and use of new structural design and technological systems for reduction of negative extreme impacts as well as emergency protection systems. The solution of the specified problems is illustrated by case studies of the Russian specialists for each life cycle stage of the platforms offshore Caspian and Kara Seas and Sea of Okhotsk

Theoretical and Experimental Analysis of Structural Properties of Load-Bearing Components of Thermonuclear Tokamak Installations

The chapter presents the results of research carried out in Mechanical Engineering Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences that were focused on validation and application of design diagrams, methods and systems for measuring stresses under the modes of Tokamak instillation cooling and management of electromagnetic fields during startups. The examples of tensometric systems and results of measurements of stresses under cryogenic temperatures and strong magnetic fields as well as results of analysis of the states of stresses and strains of structurally heterogeneous components of load-bearing and conductive structures are presented. Operation conditions and limit states of Tokamak components are considered. Results of research summarized in the chapter demonstrate the correctness of the adopted design solutions, which result in a relatively low level of local stresses in the load-bearing components of the thermonuclear installations

Defects Assessment in Subsea Pipelines by Risk Criteria

Subsea inter-field pipelines are an important element of offshore oil and gas infrastructure. Leakage or fracture of these pipelines is associated with the risk of large economic and environmental losses. One of the main sources of pipeline fracture is pipe defects. The presented section discusses the methodological aspects of assessing the hazard of defects of subsea inter-field pipelines by risk criteria of accidents. A conceptual approach of defects hazard assessing by risk criteria has been formulated, based on analysis the requirement of modern standards. The risk is defined as the probability of negative consequences, the scale of which is determined by the hazard class of pipeline accidents. The probability and scale of accidents are linked by a risk matrix. A method for a three-level assessment of the suitability of a pipeline for operation after in-line inspection has been developed. The method allows assessing the hazard of the most typical defects in subsea pipelines, such as metal loss, metal delamination, cracks and crack-like defects. The allowable defect sizes are determined for the given risk criteria using partial safety factors. The novelty of the methodology lies in the substantiation of safety factors according to risk criteria corresponding to a given class of damage and loss. A scheme for making decisions on the admissibility of defects by risk criteria has been developed. An example of hazard assessment of defects in subsea pipelines is presented

Abstracts of The Second Eurasian RISK-2020 Conference and Symposium

This abstract book contains abstracts of the various research ideas presented at The Second Eurasian RISK-2020 Conference and Symposium.The RISK-2020 Conference and Symposium served as a perfect venue for practitioners, engineers, researchers, scientists, managers and decision-makers from all over the world to exchange ideas and technology about the latest innovation developments dealing with risk minimization