Climate Change and Water Resources: The Role of Risk Management Methods

Risk management methods in water resources in theUnited States and elsewhere have been applied within thecontext of highly developed sets of planning criteria. Inconsidering these methods, many of which are listed here,it is helpful to distinguish between the use of thesetechniques to assess risk and to manage risk. While theuse of risk assessment and management methods forwater resources planning varies widely among agencies,the robustness and resiliency of existing methods for riskmanagement in water planning have the potential to serveeffectively as the basis for adapting to changes in thesupply and demand for water resulting from climatechange. There are, however, substantial research,application, and technology transfer issues to beconfronted

COVID-19 Vaccine Acceptance: We Need to Start Now

In this perspective, we discuss the importance of developing a vaccine to help curb transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. The question remains: Once a safe and effective vaccine is developed, will the public be willing to get it? We present information from one of the first tracking polls to assess public attitudes and perceptions toward a possible coronavirus disease 2019 vaccine that suggests public hesitancy over a potential vaccine, concern regarding accelerating clinical trials, and unease over the vaccine approval process. Public health experts, government officials, advocates, and others in the scientific community should respect the signals of hesitancy and communicate sensitivity, applying lessons not only to how we message, but also in how we build this urgently needed vaccine if we are to have successful uptake once available

Fielding Vaccines-Challenges and Opportunities in Outbreaks, Complex Emergencies, and Mass Gatherings

With the recent COVID-19 pandemic, the importance of vaccine development, distribution, and uptake has come to the forefront of the public eye. Effectively fielding vaccines during an emergency-whether that emergency is a result of an infectious disease or not-requires an understanding of usual vaccine-related processes; the impact of outbreak, complex emergencies, mass gatherings, and other events on patients, communities, and health systems; and ways in which diverse resources can be applied to successfully achieve needed vaccine uptake. In this review, both the emergency setting and briefly vaccine product design are discussed in these contexts in order to provide a concise source of general knowledge from experts in fielding vaccines that can aid in future vaccine ventures and increase general awareness of the process and barriers in various settings

Identifying Nontraditional Epidemic Disease Risk Factors Associated with Major Health Events from World Health Organization and World Bank Open Data

Health events emerge from host, community, environment, and pathogen factors-forecasting epidemics is a complex task. We describe an exploratory analysis to identify economic risk factors that could aid epidemic risk assessment. A line list was constructed using the World Health Organization Disease Outbreaks News (2016-2018) and economic indicators from the World Bank. Poisson regression employing forward imputations was used to establish relationships with the frequency with which countries reported public health events. Economic indicators demonstrated strong performance appropriate for further assessment in surveillance programming. In our analysis, three economic indicators were significantly associated to event reporting: how much the country\u27s urban population changed, its average forest area, and a novel economic indicator we developed that assessed how much the gross domestic product changed per capita. Other economic indicators performed less well: changes in total, female, urban, and rural population sizes; population density; net migration; change in per cent forest area; total forest area; and another novel indicator, change in percent of trade as a fraction of the total economy. We then undertook a further analysis of the start of the current COVID-19 pandemic that revealed similar associations, but confounding by global disease burden is likely. Continued development of forecasting approaches capturing information relevant to whole-of-society factors (e.g., economic factors as assessed in our study) could improve the risk management process through earlier hazard identification and inform strategic decision processes in multisectoral strategies to preventing, detecting, and responding to pandemic-threat events

Identifying Nontraditional Epidemic Disease Risk Factors Associated with Major Health Events from World Health Organization and World Bank Open Data

Health events emerge from host, community, environment, and pathogen factors-forecasting epidemics is a complex task. We describe an exploratory analysis to identify economic risk factors that could aid epidemic risk assessment. A line list was constructed using the World Health Organization Disease Outbreaks News (2016-2018) and economic indicators from the World Bank. Poisson regression employing forward imputations was used to establish relationships with the frequency with which countries reported public health events. Economic indicators demonstrated strong performance appropriate for further assessment in surveillance programming. In our analysis, three economic indicators were significantly associated to event reporting: how much the country\u27s urban population changed, its average forest area, and a novel economic indicator we developed that assessed how much the gross domestic product changed per capita. Other economic indicators performed less well: changes in total, female, urban, and rural population sizes; population density; net migration; change in per cent forest area; total forest area; and another novel indicator, change in percent of trade as a fraction of the total economy. We then undertook a further analysis of the start of the current COVID-19 pandemic that revealed similar associations, but confounding by global disease burden is likely. Continued development of forecasting approaches capturing information relevant to whole-of-society factors (e.g., economic factors as assessed in our study) could improve the risk management process through earlier hazard identification and inform strategic decision processes in multisectoral strategies to preventing, detecting, and responding to pandemic-threat events

Spatial Hypersurfaces in Causal Set Cosmology

Within the causal set approach to quantum gravity, a discrete analog of a spacelike region is a set of unrelated elements, or an antichain. In the continuum approximation of the theory, a moment-of-time hypersurface is well represented by an inextendible antichain. We construct a richer structure corresponding to a thickening of this antichain containing non-trivial geometric and topological information. We find that covariant observables can be associated with such thickened antichains and transitions between them, in classical stochastic growth models of causal sets. This construction highlights the difference between the covariant measure on causal set cosmology and the standard sum-over-histories approach: the measure is assigned to completed histories rather than to histories on a restricted spacetime region. The resulting re-phrasing of the sum-over-histories may be fruitful in other approaches to quantum gravity.Comment: Revtex, 12 pages, 2 figure

Are You PEPped and PrEPped for Travel? Risk Mitigation of HIV Infection for Travelers

The HIV pandemic persists globally and travelers are at risk for infection by the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV). While HIV-focused guidelines delineate risk stratification and mitigation strategies for people in their home communities, travel issues are not addressed. In this review, direct and indirect evidence on HIV risk among travelers is explored. The burgeoning practice of employing pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) with anti-retroviral therapy in the non-travel setting is introduced, as well as the more established use of post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP). Challenges in applying these lessons to travelers are discussed, and a new guidelines process is scoped and recommended

The Hemocompatibility of a Nitric Oxide Generating Polymer that Catalyzes S-nitrosothiol Decomposition in an Extracorporeal Circulation Model

Nitric oxide (NO) generating (NOGen) materials have been shown previously to create localized increases in NO concentration by the catalytic decomposition of blood S-nitrosothiols (RSNO) via copper (Cu)-containing polymer coatings and may improve extracorporeal circulation (ECC) hemocompatibility. In this work, a NOGen polymeric coating composed of a Cuo-nanoparticle (80 nm)-containing hydrophilic polyurethane (SP-60D-60) combined with the intravenous infusion of an RSNO, S- nitroso-N-acetylpenicillamine (SNAP), is evaluated in a 4 h rabbit thrombogenicity model and the anti-thrombotic mechanism is investigated. Polymer films containing 10 wt.% Cuo-nanoparticles coated on the inner walls of ECC circuits are employed concomitantly with systemic SNAP administration (0.1182 μmol/kg/min) to yield significantly reduced ECC thrombus formation compared to polymer control + systemic SNAP or 10 wt.% Cu NOGen + systemic saline after 4 h blood exposure (0.4 ± 0.2 NOGen/SNAP vs 4.9 ± 0.5 control/SNAP or 3.2 ± 0.2 pixels/cm2 NOGen/saline). Platelet count (3.9 ± 0.7 NOGen/SNAP vs 1.8 ± 0.1 control/SNAP or 3.0 ± 0.2 × 108/ml NOGen/saline) and plasma fibrinogen levels were preserved after 4 h blood exposure with the NOGen/SNAP combination vs either the control/SNAP or the NOGen/saline groups. Platelet function as measured by aggregometry (51 ± 9 NOGen/SNAP vs 49 ± 3% NOGen/saline) significantly decreased in both the NOGen/SNAP and NOGen/saline groups while platelet P-selectin mean fluorescence intensity (MFI) as measured by flow cytometry was not decreased after 4 h on ECC to ex vivo collagen stimulation (26 ± 2 NOGen/SNAP vs 29 ± 1 MFI baseline). Western blotting showed that fibrinogen activation as assessed by Aγ dimer expression was reduced after 4 h on ECC with NOGen/SNAP (68 ± 7 vs 83 ± 3% control/SNAP). These results suggest that the NOGen polymer coating combined with SNAP infusion preserves platelets in blood exposure to ECCs by attenuating activated fibrinogen and preventing platelet aggregation. These NO-mediated platelet changes were shown to improve thromboresistance of the NOGen polymer-coated ECCs when adequate levels of RSNOs are present