DETERMINANTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION AMONG MALE AND FEMALE HEADED FARM HOUSEHOLDS IN EASTERN UGANDA

Adaptation is considered an appropriate response to climate change and variability, especially for the smallholder farmers. However, the response decisions and actions of male and female farmers may be influenced by various factor and factor combinations that are not adequately understood. We hypothesized that both male and female farmers are climate change conscious and responsive; and that there is a gender dimension to the choice of a climate change adaptation strategy. We utilised a combination of descriptive statistics and logistic regression analysis to study the factors that influence the choice of a decision to adapt to a climate change scenario. Using cross-sectional data collected from 136 households in eastern Uganda, we undertook the analysis at two levels; pooled sample analysis and a gender disaggregated analysis. Contrary to perceived wisdom and evidence from other empirical studies, the factors that influence the climate change adaptation decision vary considerably between male and female household heads. Climate change adaptation decisions of female heads depended on and were sensitive to more covariates compared to the decisions of male heads of household. Furthermore, climate change adaptation decisions of female heads were influenced by more liquid household assets, while those of male heads were influenced by real estate, especially land. Additionally, beyond gender, other demographic factors appeared to play no significant role in the decision to adapt to climate change.L\u2019adaptation est consid\ue9r\ue9e comme \ue9tant une r\ue9ponse appropri\ue9e au changement et \ue0 la variabilit\ue9 climatique, sp\ue9cialement pour les petits fermiers. Par ailleurs, les d\ue9cisions de la r\ue9ponse et les actions entreprises par les hommes et les femmes seraient influenc\ue9es par des facteurs vari\ue9s et une combinaison des facteurs on encore ad\ue9quatement compris. Nous avons pos\ue9s des hypoth\ue8ses selon lesquelles les fermiers hommes et femmes sont conscients du changement climatique et y r\ue9agissent cons\ue9quemment. Aussi, il existe une dimension du genre face au choix d\u2019une strat\ue9gie d\u2019adaptation au changement climatique. Nous avons utilis\ue9 une combinaison de la statistique descriptive et l\u2019analyse de la r\ue9gression logistique pour \ue9tudier les facteurs qui influencent le choix d\u2019une d\ue9cision d\u2019adaptation \ue0 un scenario de changement climatique. En utilisant des donn\ue9es transversales collect\ue9es dans 136 m\ue9nages \ue0 l\u2019Est de l\u2019Uganda, l\u2019analyse \ue9tait faite en deux niveaux : l\u2019analyse des \ue9chantillons group\ue9s et l\u2019analyse du genre d\ue9sagr\ue9g\ue9. Contrairement \ue0 la sagesse et l\u2019\ue9vidence per\ue7ues d\u2019autres \ue9tudes empiriques, les facteurs qui influencent la d\ue9cision pour l\u2019adaptation au changement climatique varient consid\ue9rablement entre hommes et femmes responsables des m\ue9nages. La prise des d\ue9cisions par les femmes responsables des m\ue9nages d\ue9pendait de plusieurs co-variantes en comparaison aux d\ue9cisions prises par les hommes. En plus, les d\ue9cisions prises par les femmes \ue9taient influenc\ue9es par des biens liquides de m\ue9nages, la prise des d\ue9cisions par les hommes \ue9tait dict\ue9e par des avoirs tels que la terre. Additionnellement, au del\ue0 du facteur genre, d\u2019autres facteurs d\ue9mographiques ont jou\ue9 un r\uf4le bien que non significatif dans la prise des d\ue9cisions pour l\u2019adaptation au changement climatique

VEGETATION BIOMASS PREDICTION IN THE CATTLE CORRIDOR OF UGANDA

Pastoralists in Sub-Saharan Africa face complex problems notably frequent and severe droughts. This study was conducted in the cattle corridor of Uganda, a largely semiarid area to estimate the likely vegetative biomass production under the 2O71-2100 projected rainfall conditions. Spatio-temporal pattern of vegetative biomass production were determined by analysis of the seasonal variation of Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) for 10 years from 2001-2010. A biomass relationship was established between the NDVI and the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI); and used to project the period 2071-2100 NDVI using downscaled rainfall for the cattle corridor. A change trajectory performed on the annual means revealed the highest increase in vegetation in 2008 (0.031) and decrease in 2009 (-0.022). The SPI revealed two main droughts that were established to have occurred in the years of 2004 - 2005 and 2008-2009. The wettest year was 2003 and corresponded with the increase in NDVI. A strong positive correlation of rainfall and vegetation was established (r=0.99). Precipitation has influenced vegetative biomass in the cattle corridor as there is a positive correlation between precipitation and the vegetative biomass production. Secondly, vegetation is likely to be concentrated in areas that will have high precipitation in 2070-2100, such as Luwero and the districts south of it of the cattle corridor compared to those in the north of the cattle corridor of Uganda.Les \ue9leveurs en Afrique Sub-saharienne se confrontent aux probl\ue8mes complexes notamment les s\ue9cheresses fr\ue9quentes et plus graves. Cette \ue9tude a \ue9t\ue9 men\ue9e dans le corridor du b\ue9tail de l\u2019ouganda, une r\ue9gion largement semi-aride pour estimer la production susceptible de biomasse v\ue9g\ue9tale sous les conditions pluviom\ue9triques projet\ue9es en 2071-2100. Le mod\ue8le spatio-temporel de production de biomasse v\ue9g\ue9tale a \ue9t\ue9 d\ue9termin\ue9 par l\u2019analyse de la variation saisonni\ue8re de l\u2019Indice de V\ue9g\ue9tation par Diff\ue9rence Normalis\ue9e (NDVI) pendant 10 ans dans l\u2019intervalle de temps 2001-2010. Une relation de biomasse a \ue9t\ue9 \ue9tablie entre l\u2019indice de v\ue9g\ue9tation NDVI et l\u2019indice de pr\ue9cipitations normalis\ue9 (SPI), et elle est utilis\ue9e pour projeter le NDVI de la p\ue9riode 2071-2100 en utilisant les pr\ue9cipitations \ue0 \ue9chelle r\ue9duite pour le corridor du b\ue9tail. Une trajectoire de changement effectu\ue9e sur les moyennes annuelles a r\ue9v\ue9l\ue9 la plus forte augmentation de la v\ue9g\ue9tation en 2008 (0.031) et une diminution en 2009 (-0.022). Le SPI a r\ue9v\ue9l\ue9 deux principales s\ue9cheresses qui ont \ue9t\ue9 \ue9tablies pour avoir eu lieu dans les ann\ue9es 2004 - 2005 et 2008-2009. L\u2019ann\ue9e la plus humide \ue9tait 2OO3 et correspondait \ue0 une augmentation de l\u2019indice de v\ue9g\ue9tation NDVI. Une forte corr\ue9lation positive entre les pr\ue9cipitations et la v\ue9g\ue9tation a \ue9t\ue9 \ue9tablie (r = 0.99). Les pr\ue9cipitations ont influenc\ue9 la biomasse v\ue9g\ue9tale dans le corridor du b\ue9tail, car il existe une corr\ue9lation positive entre les pr\ue9cipitations et la production de la biomasse v\ue9g\ue9tale. Deuxi\ue8mement, la v\ue9g\ue9tation est susceptible d\u2019\ueatre concentr\ue9e dans les zones qui auront de fortes pr\ue9cipitations en 2070-2100, comme Luwero et les districts du Sud de celui-ci du corridor du b\ue9tail par rapport \ue0 ceux dans le nord du corridor du b\ue9tail de l\u2019ouganda

Dynamics of forest cover conversion in and around Bwindi impenetrable forest, Southwestern Uganda

Forest cover has been converted to agricultural land use in and around the protected areas of Uganda. The objectives of this study were; to examine the dynamics of forest cover change in and around Bwindi impenetrable forest between 1973 and 2010 and to identify the drivers of forest cover change. The trend in forest cover change was assessed by analyzing a series of orthorectified landsat imageries of 1973, 1987 and 2001 using unsupervised and supervised classification. Land use/cover map for 2010 was reconstructed by analyzing 2001 image, validated and/or reconstructed by ground truthing, use of secondary data and key informant interviews. A series of focused group discussions and key informant interviews were also used to identify drivers of land use/cover change. Policies and institutional arrangements that could have affected forest cover change for the studied time period were also identified. Results showed that protected forest and woodlot in unprotected area had declined by 7.8% and 70.7% respectively as small scale farming and tea plantations had increased by 13.9% and 78.3% respectively between 1973 and 2010. The conversions were attributed to land use pressure due to population growth, change in socio-economic conditions and institutional arrangements. The severe loss of woodlot outside the protected area not only poses a potential threat to the protected forest but also calls for intervention measures if efforts to mitigate climate change impacts are to be realized

REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL PERFORMANCE AND PREDICTION oF SEASONAL RAINFALL AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE oF UGANDA

Knowledge about future climate provides valuable insights into how the challenges posed by climate change and variability can be addressed. This study assessed the skill of the United Kingdom (UK) Regional Climate Model (RCM) PRECIS (Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies) in simulating rainfall and temperature over Uganda and also assess future impacts of climate when forced by an ensemble of two Global Climate Models (GCMs) for the period 2070-2100. Results show that the models captured fairly well the large scale flow signals influencing rainfall and temperature patterns over Uganda. Rainfall and temperature patterns were better resolved by the RCM than the GCMs. The rainfall and temperature patterns differed among the three seasons. Rainy season March to May (MAM) is likely to experience increment in both surface temperature (0.9\ub0 C) and rainfall (0.2 mm day-1). For September to october (SON) rainy season, an opposite trend in the two climate parameters, temperature and rainfall, will be registered with the former increasing by 0.9 \ub0C and the latter dropping by 0.7 mm day-1. For the dry season, June to August (JJA), both temperature and rainfall are projected to decrease by 0.3 \ub0 C and 0.4 mm day-1, respectively.La connaissance du climat de demain fournit un aper\ue7u sur la mani\ue8re dont les d\ue9fis pos\ue9s peuvent \ueatre adress\ue9s. Cette \ue9tude a \ue9valu\ue9 la comp\ue9tence du Mod\ue8le Climatique R\ue9gional (RCM) PRECIS du Royaume Uni (fournissant des climats r\ue9gionaux pour des \ue9tudes d\u2019impacts) dans la simulation de la pluviom\ue9trie et la temp\ue9rature en ouganda et, d\u2019autre part, \ue9tudier les impacts des climats une fois forc\ue9e par un ensemble de deux Mod\ue8les Climatiques \ue0 l\u2019\ue9chelle de l\u2019Univers (GCMs) pour les p\ue9riodes 2070-2100. Les r\ue9sultats montrent que les mod\ue8les ont raisonnablement saisi une large \ue9chelle du flow des signaux qui influencent la tendance de la pluviom\ue9trie et la temp\ue9rature en ouganda. Les tendances de la pluviom\ue9trie et la temp\ue9rature \ue9taient mieux d\ue9termin\ue9es par RCM que GCMs. Les tendances de la pluviom\ue9trie et la temp\ue9rature diff\ue9raient au cours des trois saisons. La saison pluvieuse Mars \ue0 Mai (MAM) connaitra probablement une augmentation de la temp\ue9rature (0.9 \ub0C) et de la pluviom\ue9trie (0.2 mm jr-1). Pour la saison de pluie de Septembre \ue0 octobre, une tendance contraire dans les deux param\ue8tres climatiques sera enregistr\ue9e avec la m\ueame augmentation de 0.9 \ub0C et une diminution de 0.7 mm jr-1de pluie. Pour la saison s\ue8che de Juin \ue0 Ao\ufbt (JJA), les projections montrent une diminution de la temp\ue9rature et de la pluie de 0.3 \ub0C et 0.4 mm jr-1, respectivement

LAND USE/COVER CHANGE PATTERNS IN HIGHLAND ECOSYSTEMS OF LAKE BUNYONYI CATCHMENT IN WESTERN UGANDA

Land use and cover changes influence the livelihood and degradation of fragile ecosystems. The extents of these changes in pattern were investigated in Lake Bunyonyi Catchment which lies in the South Western Highlands of Uganda. The dynamics and magnitude of land use and cover changes were assessed using Landsat (TM/ETM+) satellite images and collection of socio-economic data through interviews. The images were processed and analysed using the mean-shift image segmentation algorithm to cluster and quantify the land use and cover features. The study noted that in the assessment period 1987-2014, the small-scale farmlands, open water and grasslands remained quasi constant; while the woodlots followed a quadratic trend, with the lowest acreage experienced in 2000. The tropical high forests and wetlands cover types experienced significant decline over the years (P<0.05). Patches of small-scale farmlands, woodlots, and wetland interchangeably lost or gained more land dependant on climate variability. Even though the tropical high forest lost more than it gained, it only gained and lost to small scale farmland and woodlots; while grassland mainly lost to small scale farmland and woodlots.L\u2019occupation du sol et les changements de couverture influencent la subsistance et la d\ue9gradation des \ue9cosyst\ue8mes fragiles. La tendance des niveaux de ces changements \ue9taient \ue9valu\ue9e dans le basin versant du lac Bunyonyi qui relie les r\ue9gions montagneuses du Sud-Ouest d\u2019Ouganda. Les dynamiques et l\u2019 envergure d\u2019utilisaton de la terre et les changements de couverture \ue9taient \ue9valu\ue9es en utilisant les images du satellite Landsat (TM/ETM+) et la collecte des donn\ue9es socio-\ue9conomiques \ue0 travers des interviews. Les images \ue9taient trait\ue9es et analy\ue9es en utilisant l\u2019algorithme de segmentation de passage-moyen-d\u2019image pour grouper et quantifier les occupations du sol et les caract\ue9ristiques de la couverture. L\u2019\ue9tude a montr\ue9 que dans la p\ue9riode d\u2019\ue9valuation de 1987-2014, la petite \ue9tendue de terres cultivables, l\u2019eau libre et les prairies sont demeur\ue9es quasi constantes; tandis que les terres bois\ue9es ont suivi une tendance quadratique, avec la plus petite superficie observ\ue9e en l\u2019an 2000. Les grandes for\ueats tropicales et les zones humides ont exp\ue9riment\ue9 un d\ue9clin significatif au cours des ann\ue9es (P<0.05). Les petites parcelles de terres agricoles, les terres bois\ue9es, et les zones humides indistinctement ont perdu et gagn\ue9 plus de terres d\ue9pendamment de la variabilit\ue9 climatique. Bien que la grande for\ueat tropicale aie perdu plus qu\u2019elle en a gagn\ue9e; elle a seulement perdu de tr\ue8s petites \ue9tendues de terres agricoles et bois\ue9es; alors que les prairies ont principalement perdu de tr\ue8s petites \ue9tendues de terres agricoles et bois\ue9es

DETERMINANTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION AMONG MALE AND FEMALE HEADED FARM HOUSEHOLDS IN EASTERN UGANDA

Adaptation is considered an appropriate response to climate change and variability, especially for the smallholder farmers. However, the response decisions and actions of male and female farmers may be influenced by various factor and factor combinations that are not adequately understood. We hypothesized that both male and female farmers are climate change conscious and responsive; and that there is a gender dimension to the choice of a climate change adaptation strategy. We utilised a combination of descriptive statistics and logistic regression analysis to study the factors that influence the choice of a decision to adapt to a climate change scenario. Using cross-sectional data collected from 136 households in eastern Uganda, we undertook the analysis at two levels; pooled sample analysis and a gender disaggregated analysis. Contrary to perceived wisdom and evidence from other empirical studies, the factors that influence the climate change adaptation decision vary considerably between male and female household heads. Climate change adaptation decisions of female heads depended on and were sensitive to more covariates compared to the decisions of male heads of household. Furthermore, climate change adaptation decisions of female heads were influenced by more liquid household assets, while those of male heads were influenced by real estate, especially land. Additionally, beyond gender, other demographic factors appeared to play no significant role in the decision to adapt to climate change.L’adaptation est considérée comme étant une réponse appropriée au changement et à la variabilité climatique, spécialement pour les petits fermiers. Par ailleurs, les décisions de la réponse et les actions entreprises par les hommes et les femmes seraient influencées par des facteurs variés et une combinaison des facteurs on encore adéquatement compris. Nous avons posés des hypothèses selon lesquelles les fermiers hommes et femmes sont conscients du changement climatique et y réagissent conséquemment. Aussi, il existe une dimension du genre face au choix d’une stratégie d’adaptation au changement climatique. Nous avons utilisé une combinaison de la statistique descriptive et l’analyse de la régression logistique pour étudier les facteurs qui influencent le choix d’une décision d’adaptation à un scenario de changement climatique. En utilisant des données transversales collectées dans 136 ménages à l’Est de l’Uganda, l’analyse était faite en deux niveaux : l’analyse des échantillons groupés et l’analyse du genre désagrégé. Contrairement à la sagesse et l’évidence perçues d’autres études empiriques, les facteurs qui influencent la décision pour l’adaptation au changement climatique varient considérablement entre hommes et femmes responsables des ménages. La prise des décisions par les femmes responsables des ménages dépendait de plusieurs co-variantes en comparaison aux décisions prises par les hommes. En plus, les décisions prises par les femmes étaient influencées par des biens liquides de ménages, la prise des décisions par les hommes était dictée par des avoirs tels que la terre. Additionnellement, au delà du facteur genre, d’autres facteurs démographiques ont joué un rôle bien que non significatif dans la prise des décisions pour l’adaptation au changement climatique

REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL PERFORMANCE AND PREDICTION oF SEASONAL RAINFALL AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE oF UGANDA

Knowledge about future climate provides valuable insights into how the challenges posed by climate change and variability can be addressed. This study assessed the skill of the United Kingdom (UK) Regional Climate Model (RCM) PRECIS (Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies) in simulating rainfall and temperature over Uganda and also assess future impacts of climate when forced by an ensemble of two Global Climate Models (GCMs) for the period 2070-2100. Results show that the models captured fairly well the large scale flow signals influencing rainfall and temperature patterns over Uganda. Rainfall and temperature patterns were better resolved by the RCM than the GCMs. The rainfall and temperature patterns differed among the three seasons. Rainy season March to May (MAM) is likely to experience increment in both surface temperature (0.9° C) and rainfall (0.2 mm day-1). For September to october (SON) rainy season, an opposite trend in the two climate parameters, temperature and rainfall, will be registered with the former increasing by 0.9 °C and the latter dropping by 0.7 mm day-1. For the dry season, June to August (JJA), both temperature and rainfall are projected to decrease by 0.3 ° C and 0.4 mm day-1, respectively.La connaissance du climat de demain fournit un aperçu sur la manière dont les défis posés peuvent être adressés. Cette étude a évalué la compétence du Modèle Climatique Régional (RCM) PRECIS du Royaume Uni (fournissant des climats régionaux pour des études d’impacts) dans la simulation de la pluviométrie et la température en ouganda et, d’autre part, étudier les impacts des climats une fois forcée par un ensemble de deux Modèles Climatiques à l’échelle de l’Univers (GCMs) pour les périodes 2070-2100. Les résultats montrent que les modèles ont raisonnablement saisi une large échelle du flow des signaux qui influencent la tendance de la pluviométrie et la température en ouganda. Les tendances de la pluviométrie et la température étaient mieux déterminées par RCM que GCMs. Les tendances de la pluviométrie et la température différaient au cours des trois saisons. La saison pluvieuse Mars à Mai (MAM) connaitra probablement une augmentation de la température (0.9 °C) et de la pluviométrie (0.2 mm jr-1). Pour la saison de pluie de Septembre à octobre, une tendance contraire dans les deux paramètres climatiques sera enregistrée avec la même augmentation de 0.9 °C et une diminution de 0.7 mm jr-1de pluie. Pour la saison sèche de Juin à Août (JJA), les projections montrent une diminution de la température et de la pluie de 0.3 °C et 0.4 mm jr-1, respectivement

Dynamics of forest cover conversion in and around Bwindi impenetrable forest, Southwestern Uganda

Forest cover has been converted to agricultural land use in and around the protected areas of Uganda. The objectives of this study were; to examine the dynamics of forest cover change in and around Bwindi impenetrable forest between 1973 and 2010 and to identify the drivers of forest cover change. The trend in forest cover change was assessed by analyzing a series of orthorectified landsat imageries of 1973, 1987 and 2001 using unsupervised and supervised classification. Land use/cover map for 2010 was reconstructed by analyzing 2001 image, validated and/or reconstructed by ground truthing, use of secondary data and key informant interviews. A series of focused group discussions and key informant interviews were also used to identify drivers of land use/cover change. Policies and institutional arrangements that could have affected forest cover change for the studied time period were also identified. Results showed that protected forest and woodlot in unprotected area had declined by 7.8% and 70.7% respectively as small scale farming and tea plantations had increased by 13.9% and 78.3% respectively between 1973 and 2010. The conversions were attributed to land use pressure due to population growth, change in socio-economic conditions and institutional arrangements. The severe loss of woodlot outside the protected area not only poses a potential threat to the protected forest but also calls for intervention measures if efforts to mitigate climate change impacts are to be realize