Construct-level predictive validity of educational attainment and intellectual aptitude tests in medical student selection: meta-regression of six UK longitudinal studies

Background: Measures used for medical student selection should predict future performance during training. A problem for any selection study is that predictor-outcome correlations are known only in those who have been selected, whereas selectors need to know how measures would predict in the entire pool of applicants. That problem of interpretation can be solved by calculating construct-level predictive validity, an estimate of true predictor-outcome correlation across the range of applicant abilities. Methods: Construct-level predictive validities were calculated in six cohort studies of medical student selection and training (student entry, 1972 to 2009) for a range of predictors, including A-levels, General Certificates of Secondary Education (GCSEs)/O-levels, and aptitude tests (AH5 and UK Clinical Aptitude Test (UKCAT)). Outcomes included undergraduate basic medical science and finals assessments, as well as postgraduate measures of Membership of the Royal Colleges of Physicians of the United Kingdom (MRCP(UK)) performance and entry in the Specialist Register. Construct-level predictive validity was calculated with the method of Hunter, Schmidt and Le (2006), adapted to correct for right-censorship of examination results due to grade inflation. Results: Meta-regression analyzed 57 separate predictor-outcome correlations (POCs) and construct-level predictive validities (CLPVs). Mean CLPVs are substantially higher (.450) than mean POCs (.171). Mean CLPVs for first-year examinations, were high for A-levels (.809; CI: .501 to .935), and lower for GCSEs/O-levels (.332; CI: .024 to .583) and UKCAT (mean = .245; CI: .207 to .276). A-levels had higher CLPVs for all undergraduate and postgraduate assessments than did GCSEs/O-levels and intellectual aptitude tests. CLPVs of educational attainment measures decline somewhat during training, but continue to predict postgraduate performance. Intellectual aptitude tests have lower CLPVs than A-levels or GCSEs/O-levels. Conclusions: Educational attainment has strong CLPVs for undergraduate and postgraduate performance, accounting for perhaps 65% of true variance in first year performance. Such CLPVs justify the use of educational attainment measure in selection, but also raise a key theoretical question concerning the remaining 35% of variance (and measurement error, range restriction and right-censorship have been taken into account). Just as in astrophysics, ‘dark matter’ and ‘dark energy’ are posited to balance various theoretical equations, so medical student selection must also have its ‘dark variance’, whose nature is not yet properly characterized, but explains a third of the variation in performance during training. Some variance probably relates to factors which are unpredictable at selection, such as illness or other life events, but some is probably also associated with factors such as personality, motivation or study skills

Genomic analysis of the function of the transcription factor gata3 during development of the Mammalian inner ear

We have studied the function of the zinc finger transcription factor gata3 in auditory system development by analysing temporal profiles of gene expression during differentiation of conditionally immortal cell lines derived to model specific auditory cell types and developmental stages. We tested and applied a novel probabilistic method called the gamma Model for Oligonucleotide Signals to analyse hybridization signals from Affymetrix oligonucleotide arrays. Expression levels estimated by this method correlated closely (p<0.0001) across a 10-fold range with those measured by quantitative RT-PCR for a sample of 61 different genes. In an unbiased list of 26 genes whose temporal profiles clustered most closely with that of gata3 in all cell lines, 10 were linked to Insulin-like Growth Factor signalling, including the serine/threonine kinase Akt/PKB. Knock-down of gata3 in vitro was associated with a decrease in expression of genes linked to IGF-signalling, including IGF1, IGF2 and several IGF-binding proteins. It also led to a small decrease in protein levels of the serine-threonine kinase Akt2/PKB beta, a dramatic increase in Akt1/PKB alpha protein and relocation of Akt1/PKB alpha from the nucleus to the cytoplasm. The cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitor p27(kip1), a known target of PKB/Akt, simultaneously decreased. In heterozygous gata3 null mice the expression of gata3 correlated with high levels of activated Akt/PKB. This functional relationship could explain the diverse function of gata3 during development, the hearing loss associated with gata3 heterozygous null mice and the broader symptoms of human patients with Hearing-Deafness-Renal anomaly syndrome

Shattered pellet injection experiments at JET in support of the ITER disruption mitigation system design

A series of experiments have been executed at JET to assess the efficacy of the newly installed shattered pellet injection (SPI) system in mitigating the effects of disruptions. Issues, important for the ITER disruption mitigation system, such as thermal load mitigation, avoidance of runaway electron (RE) formation, radiation asymmetries during thermal quench mitigation, electromagnetic load control and RE energy dissipation have been addressed over a large parameter range. The efficiency of the mitigation has been examined for the various SPI injection strategies. The paper summarises the results from these JET SPI experiments and discusses their implications for the ITER disruption mitigation scheme

New H-mode regimes with small ELMs and high thermal confinement in the Joint European Torus

New H-mode regimes with high confinement, low core impurity accumulation, and small edge-localized mode perturbations have been obtained in magnetically confined plasmas at the Joint European Torus tokamak. Such regimes are achieved by means of optimized particle fueling conditions at high input power, current, and magnetic field, which lead to a self-organized state with a strong increase in rotation and ion temperature and a decrease in the edge density. An interplay between core and edge plasma regions leads to reduced turbulence levels and outward impurity convection. These results pave the way to an attractive alternative to the standard plasmas considered for fusion energy generation in a tokamak with a metallic wall environment such as the ones expected in ITER.&amp; nbsp;Published under an exclusive license by AIP Publishing

Overview of JET results for optimising ITER operation

The JET 2019–2020 scientific and technological programme exploited the results of years of concerted scientific and engineering work, including the ITER-like wall (ILW: Be wall and W divertor) installed in 2010, improved diagnostic capabilities now fully available, a major neutral beam injection upgrade providing record power in 2019–2020, and tested the technical and procedural preparation for safe operation with tritium. Research along three complementary axes yielded a wealth of new results. Firstly, the JET plasma programme delivered scenarios suitable for high fusion power and alpha particle (α) physics in the coming D–T campaign (DTE2), with record sustained neutron rates, as well as plasmas for clarifying the impact of isotope mass on plasma core, edge and plasma-wall interactions, and for ITER pre-fusion power operation. The efficacy of the newly installed shattered pellet injector for mitigating disruption forces and runaway electrons was demonstrated. Secondly, research on the consequences of long-term exposure to JET-ILW plasma was completed, with emphasis on wall damage and fuel retention, and with analyses of wall materials and dust particles that will help validate assumptions and codes for design and operation of ITER and DEMO. Thirdly, the nuclear technology programme aiming to deliver maximum technological return from operations in D, T and D–T benefited from the highest D–D neutron yield in years, securing results for validating radiation transport and activation codes, and nuclear data for ITER

The role of ETG modes in JET-ILW pedestals with varying levels of power and fuelling

We present the results of GENE gyrokinetic calculations based on a series of JET-ITER-like-wall (ILW) type I ELMy H-mode discharges operating with similar experimental inputs but at different levels of power and gas fuelling. We show that turbulence due to electron-temperature-gradient (ETGs) modes produces a significant amount of heat flux in four JET-ILW discharges, and, when combined with neoclassical simulations, is able to reproduce the experimental heat flux for the two low gas pulses. The simulations plausibly reproduce the high-gas heat fluxes as well, although power balance analysis is complicated by short ELM cycles. By independently varying the normalised temperature gradients (omega(T)(e)) and normalised density gradients (omega(ne )) around their experimental values, we demonstrate that it is the ratio of these two quantities eta(e) = omega(Te)/omega(ne) that determines the location of the peak in the ETG growth rate and heat flux spectra. The heat flux increases rapidly as eta(e) increases above the experimental point, suggesting that ETGs limit the temperature gradient in these pulses. When quantities are normalised using the minor radius, only increases in omega(Te) produce appreciable increases in the ETG growth rates, as well as the largest increases in turbulent heat flux which follow scalings similar to that of critical balance theory. However, when the heat flux is normalised to the electron gyro-Bohm heat flux using the temperature gradient scale length L-Te, it follows a linear trend in correspondence with previous work by different authors

Spectroscopic camera analysis of the roles of molecularly assisted reaction chains during detachment in JET L-mode plasmas

The roles of the molecularly assisted ionization (MAI), recombination (MAR) and dissociation (MAD) reaction chains with respect to the purely atomic ionization and recombination processes were studied experimentally during detachment in low-confinement mode (L-mode) plasmas in JET with the help of experimentally inferred divertor plasma and neutral conditions, extracted previously from filtered camera observations of deuterium Balmer emission, and the reaction coefficients provided by the ADAS, AMJUEL and H2VIBR atomic and molecular databases. The direct contribution of MAI and MAR in the outer divertor particle balance was found to be inferior to the electron-atom ionization (EAI) and electron-ion recombination (EIR). Near the outer strike point, a strong atom source due to the D+2-driven MAD was, however, observed to correlate with the onset of detachment at outer strike point temperatures of Te,osp = 0.9-2.0 eV via increased plasma-neutral interactions before the increasing dominance of EIR at Te,osp &lt; 0.9 eV, followed by increasing degree of detachment. The analysis was supported by predictions from EDGE2D-EIRENE simulations which were in qualitative agreement with the experimental observations

Testing a prediction model for the H-mode density pedestal against JET-ILW pedestals

The neutral ionisation model proposed by Groebner et al (2002 Phys. Plasmas 9 2134) to determine the plasma density profile in the H-mode pedestal, is extended to include charge exchange processes in the pedestal stimulated by the ideas of Mahdavi et al (2003 Phys. Plasmas 10 3984). The model is then tested against JET H-mode pedestal data, both in a 'standalone' version using experimental temperature profiles and also by incorporating it in the Europed version of EPED. The model is able to predict the density pedestal over a wide range of conditions with good accuracy. It is also able to predict the experimentally observed isotope effect on the density pedestal that eludes simpler neutral ionization models