Updating outdated predictive accident models for modern rural roads [forthcoming]

Reliable predictive accident models (PAMs) are essential to design and maintain safe road networks however, ongoing changes in road and vehicle design coupled with road safety initiatives, mean that these models can quickly become dated. Unfortunately, because the fitting of sophisticated PAMs including a wide range of explanatory variables is not a trivial task, available models tend to be based on data collected many years ago and seem unlikely to give reliable estimates of current accidents. Large, expensive studies to produce new models are likely to be, at best, only a temporary solution. This paper thus seeks to develop a practical and efficient methodology to allow currently available PAMs to be updated to give unbiased estimates of accident frequencies at any point in time. Two principal issues are examined: the extent to which the temporal transferability of predictive accident models varies with model complexity; and the practicality and efficiency of two alternative updating strategies. The models used to illustrate these issues are the suites of models developed for rural dual and single carriageway roads in the UK. These are widely used in several software packages in spite of being based on data collected during the 1980s. It was found that increased model complexity by no means ensures better temporal transferability and that calibration of the models using a scale factor can be a practical alternative to fitting new models

Bayesian Conditioning, the Reflection Principle, and Quantum Decoherence

The probabilities a Bayesian agent assigns to a set of events typically change with time, for instance when the agent updates them in the light of new data. In this paper we address the question of how an agent's probabilities at different times are constrained by Dutch-book coherence. We review and attempt to clarify the argument that, although an agent is not forced by coherence to use the usual Bayesian conditioning rule to update his probabilities, coherence does require the agent's probabilities to satisfy van Fraassen's [1984] reflection principle (which entails a related constraint pointed out by Goldstein [1983]). We then exhibit the specialized assumption needed to recover Bayesian conditioning from an analogous reflection-style consideration. Bringing the argument to the context of quantum measurement theory, we show that "quantum decoherence" can be understood in purely personalist terms---quantum decoherence (as supposed in a von Neumann chain) is not a physical process at all, but an application of the reflection principle. From this point of view, the decoherence theory of Zeh, Zurek, and others as a story of quantum measurement has the plot turned exactly backward.Comment: 14 pages, written in memory of Itamar Pitowsk

Cross-species gene expression analysis of species specific differences in the preclinical assessment of pharmaceutical compounds

Animals are frequently used as model systems for determination of safety and efficacy in pharmaceutical research and development. However, significant quantitative and qualitative differences exist between humans and the animal models used in research. This is as a result of genetic variation between human and the laboratory animal. Therefore the development of a system that would allow the assessment of all molecular differences between species after drug exposure would have a significant impact on drug evaluation for toxicity and efficacy. Here we describe a cross-species microarray methodology that identifies and selects orthologous probes after cross-species sequence comparison to develop an orthologous cross-species gene expression analysis tool. The assumptions made by the use of this orthologous gene expression strategy for cross-species extrapolation is that; conserved changes in gene expression equate to conserved pharmacodynamic endpoints. This assumption is supported by the fact that evolution and selection have maintained the structure and function of many biochemical pathways over time, resulting in the conservation of many important processes. We demonstrate this cross-species methodology by investigating species specific differences of the peroxisome proliferatoractivator receptor (PPAR) a response in rat and human

24-h severe energy restriction impairs postprandial glycaemic control in young, lean males

Intermittent energy restriction (IER) involves short periods of severe energy restriction interspersed with periods of adequate energy intake, and can induce weight loss. Insulin sensitivity is impaired by short-term, complete energy restriction, but the effects of IER are not well known. In randomised order, fourteen lean men (age: 25 (sd 4) years; BMI: 24 (sd 2) kg/m2; body fat: 17 (4) %) consumed 24-h diets providing 100 % (10 441 (sd 812) kJ; energy balance (EB)) or 25 % (2622 (sd 204) kJ; energy restriction (ER)) of estimated energy requirements, followed by an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT; 75 g of glucose drink) after fasting overnight. Plasma/serum glucose, insulin, NEFA, glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1), glucose-dependent insulinotropic peptide (GIP) and fibroblast growth factor 21 (FGF21) were assessed before and after (0 h) each 24-h dietary intervention, and throughout the 2-h OGTT. Homoeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA2-IR) assessed the fasted response and incremental AUC (iAUC) or total AUC (tAUC) were calculated during the OGTT. At 0 h, HOMA2-IR was 23 % lower after ER compared with EB (P<0·05). During the OGTT, serum glucose iAUC (P<0·001), serum insulin iAUC (P<0·05) and plasma NEFA tAUC (P<0·01) were greater during ER, but GLP-1 (P=0·161), GIP (P=0·473) and FGF21 (P=0·497) tAUC were similar between trials. These results demonstrate that severe energy restriction acutely impairs postprandial glycaemic control in lean men, despite reducing HOMA2-IR. Chronic intervention studies are required to elucidate the long-term effects of IER on indices of insulin sensitivity, particularly in the absence of weight loss

A frequentist framework of inductive reasoning

Reacting against the limitation of statistics to decision procedures, R. A. Fisher proposed for inductive reasoning the use of the fiducial distribution, a parameter-space distribution of epistemological probability transferred directly from limiting relative frequencies rather than computed according to the Bayes update rule. The proposal is developed as follows using the confidence measure of a scalar parameter of interest. (With the restriction to one-dimensional parameter space, a confidence measure is essentially a fiducial probability distribution free of complications involving ancillary statistics.) A betting game establishes a sense in which confidence measures are the only reliable inferential probability distributions. The equality between the probabilities encoded in a confidence measure and the coverage rates of the corresponding confidence intervals ensures that the measure's rule for assigning confidence levels to hypotheses is uniquely minimax in the game. Although a confidence measure can be computed without any prior distribution, previous knowledge can be incorporated into confidence-based reasoning. To adjust a p-value or confidence interval for prior information, the confidence measure from the observed data can be combined with one or more independent confidence measures representing previous agent opinion. (The former confidence measure may correspond to a posterior distribution with frequentist matching of coverage probabilities.) The representation of subjective knowledge in terms of confidence measures rather than prior probability distributions preserves approximate frequentist validity.Comment: major revisio

What Research Is Needed to Stop TB? Introducing the TB Research Movement

Christian Lienhardt and colleagues describe the development of the TB Research Movement, which aims to create a framework for concrete actions to harmonize and synergize TB research efforts globally

Surveillance Recommendations for Children with Overgrowth Syndromes and Predisposition to Wilms Tumors and Hepatoblastoma

A number of genetic syndromes have been linked to increased risk for Wilms tumor (WT), hepatoblastoma (HB), and other embryonal tumors. Here, we outline these rare syndromes with at least a 1% risk to develop these tumors and recommend uniform tumor screening recommendations for North America. Specifically, for syndromes with increased risk for WT, we recommend renal ultrasounds every 3 months from birth (or the time of diagnosis) through the seventh birthday. For HB, we recommend screening with full abdominal ultrasound and alpha-fetoprotein serum measurements every 3 months from birth (or the time of diagnosis) through the fourth birthday. We recommend that when possible, these patients be evaluated and monitored by cancer predisposition specialists. At this time, these recommendations are not based on the differential risk between different genetic or epigenetic causes for each syndrome, which some European centers have implemented. This differentiated approach largely represents distinct practice environments between the United States and Europe, and these guidelines are designed to be a broad framework within which physicians and families can work together to implement specific screening. Further study is expected to lead to modifications of these recommendations.This study was supported by NCI K08 CA1939915, Alex's Lemonade Stand Foundation for Childhood Cancer, and St. Baldrick's Foundation (to J.M. Kalish); European Research Council Advanced Researcher Award (to E.R. Maher); and NCI 5P30CA054174-21 (to G.E. Tomlinson)

Motor control or graded activity exercises for chronic low back pain? A randomised controlled trial

Background: Chronic low back pain remains a major health problem in Australia and around the world. Unfortunately the majority of treatments for this condition produce small effects because not all patients respond to each treatment. It appears that only 25-50% of patients respond to exercise. The two most popular types of exercise for low back pain are graded activity and motor control exercises. At present however, there are no guidelines to help clinicians select the best treatment for a patient. As a result, time and money are wasted on treatments which ultimately fail to help the patient

Comparison of Strategies to Detect Epistasis from eQTL Data

Genome-wide association studies have been instrumental in identifying genetic variants associated with complex traits such as human disease or gene expression phenotypes. It has been proposed that extending existing analysis methods by considering interactions between pairs of loci may uncover additional genetic effects. However, the large number of possible two-marker tests presents significant computational and statistical challenges. Although several strategies to detect epistasis effects have been proposed and tested for specific phenotypes, so far there has been no systematic attempt to compare their performance using real data. We made use of thousands of gene expression traits from linkage and eQTL studies, to compare the performance of different strategies. We found that using information from marginal associations between markers and phenotypes to detect epistatic effects yielded a lower false discovery rate (FDR) than a strategy solely using biological annotation in yeast, whereas results from human data were inconclusive. For future studies whose aim is to discover epistatic effects, we recommend incorporating information about marginal associations between SNPs and phenotypes instead of relying solely on biological annotation. Improved methods to discover epistatic effects will result in a more complete understanding of complex genetic effects

Calpain-5 gene variants are associated with diastolic blood pressure and cholesterol levels

BACKGROUND: Genes implicated in common complex disorders such as obesity, type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) or cardiovascular diseases are not disease specific, since clinically related disorders also share genetic components. Cysteine protease Calpain 10 (CAPN10) has been associated with T2DM, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, increased body mass index (BMI) and polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS), a reproductive disorder of women in which isunlin resistance seems to play a pathogenic role. The calpain 5 gene (CAPN5) encodes a protein homologue of CAPN10. CAPN5 has been previously associated with PCOS by our group. In this new study, we have analysed the association of four CAPN5 gene variants(rs948976A>G, rs4945140G>A, rs2233546C>T and rs2233549G>A) with several cardiovascular risk factors related to metabolic syndrome in general population. METHODS: Anthropometric measurements, blood pressure, insulin, glucose and lipid profiles were determined in 606 individuals randomly chosen from a cross-sectional population-based epidemiological survey in the province of Segovia in Central Spain (Castille), recruited to investigate the prevalence of anthropometric and physiological parameters related to obesity and other components of the metabolic syndrome. Genotypes at the four polymorphic loci in CAPN5 gene were detected by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). RESULTS: Genotype association analysis was significant for BMI (p ≤ 0.041), diastolic blood pressure (p = 0.015) and HDL-cholesterol levels (p = 0.025). Different CAPN5 haplotypes were also associated with diastolic blood pressure (DBP) (0.0005 ≤ p ≤ 0.006) and total cholesterol levels (0.001 ≤ p ≤ 0.029). In addition, the AACA haplotype, over-represented in obese individuals, is also more frequent in individuals with metabolic syndrome defined by ATPIII criteria (p = 0.029). CONCLUSION: As its homologue CAPN10, CAPN5 seems to influence traits related to increased risk for cardiovascular diseases. Our results also may suggest CAPN5 as a candidate gene for metabolic syndrome