Grand Strategy Analysis: A Proto-Theoretical Approach

International relations scholarship begins and ends with assumptions—about human nature; about human interaction; about starting points, relative information, and outcomes. Such assumptions are necessary to further the intellectual coherence and development of scholarly work. However, they restrict the applicability of scholarly research to those situations that parallel the work\u27s underlying assumptions. This work argues the body of international relations scholarship as a whole would benefit from the development of a pre-theory state, absent any assumptions about international relations, from which observers can identify those works of scholarship that are most effective in explaining perceptive states and the strategic decisions taken in light of them. Such a state of thinking acts as a proto-theory of international relations. Proto-theory embraces the full realm of international relations scholarship, other fields, and any other area of human thought that provides insight into the manner in which strategic thinkers perceive themselves, their nations, and their situations. By expressing no initial preference for a particular model of decision-making or theory of international relations, it offers a means of transcending debates regarding the “correctness” of any particular view. Rather, proto-theory allows observers to focus on the explanatory power of any particular concept regarding the context under investigation. This work tests the feasibility of a proto-theoretical approach to international relations by employing it in an examination of the United States\u27 abandonment of its longstanding strategy of containment. It identifies the views prevalent in the United States prior to and at the time of its decision to alter its grand strategy in general and its approach to its competition with the Soviet Union in particular. It then compares the scholarly approaches most relevant to those views to determine if the behavioral indicators identified by them are accurate in their description of subsequent grand strategy

Monitoring the Abundance of American Shad and River Herring in Virginia’s Rivers 2021 Annual Report

This report describes the results of the twenty-fourth year of a continuing study to estimate the relative abundance and assess the status of American shad (Alosa sapidissima) stocks in Virginia by monitoring the spawning runs in the James, York and Rappahannock rivers in spring 2021, evaluating hatchery programs, and contributing to coast-wide assessments (ASMFC 2007, ASMFC 2020). We also report on two fishery independent monitoring programs using anchor gillnets in the Rappahannock River (year 4) and the Chickahominy River (year 7; a major tributary of the James River), to determine relative abundance and stock structure for the adult spawning run of river herring (A. pseudoharengus, and A. aestivalis). Further, we report on the year 6 of a monitoring program for juvenile alosines by using nighttime surface trawls in the Chickahominy River and present an index of juvenile abundance from this survey. Additional objectives were to monitor bycatch of American shad in a permitted gill-net fishery and American shad and river herring in pound-net fisheries

Patterns of Hatchery-Produced Returns of American Shad in the James River, Virginia

American Shad Alosa sapidissima is an anadromous clupeid that once supported a robust fishery but has declined drastically throughout its native range due to overfishing, dam proliferation, and poor water quality. A hatchery program on the James River in Virginia was introduced in 1992 to support the recovery of stocks. Following a moratorium of the fishery enacted in 1994, a fisheries-independent survey was initiated in 1998 to monitor the population recovery efforts and status of American Shad stocks in Virginia. This paper examined 22 years of monitoring data for the James River and determined the effect of hatchery inputs on the James River stock of American Shad. The spawning stock index increased from 2.57 in 1998 to a peak of 9.33 in 2003 but has generally been declining since and has been at very low levels in most recent years. The hatchery prevalence for female American Shad (i.e., the percentage of fish derived from the hatchery) ranged between 3.6% and 60.5%. Years with higher spawning stock index values were significantly correlated to higher percentages of hatchery fish returning to spawn. The stock–recruitment relationship was best explained by the Ricker model, which had the lowest residual standard error and Akaike information criterion value. A threshold level of hatchery-released individuals (approximately 4 million larvae) was necessary to achieve the highest numbers of returning spawners, but stocking above 7 million larvae correlated with declining returns. Long-term monitoring of the James River American Shad spawning population allowed for the critical examination of the contribution of hatchery individuals to the yearly spawning run and the relative success rate of each hatchery year-class. From these data, we consider that the James River spawning stock of American Shad was dependent upon hatchery inputs, with ideal hatchery returns occurring during years of moderate levels of hatchery stocking

Monitoring the Abundance of American Shad and River Herring in Virginia’s Rivers 2020 Annual Report

This report describes the results of the twenty-third year of a continuing study to estimate the relative abundance and assess the status of American shad (Alosa sapidissima) stocks in Virginia by monitoring the spawning runs in the James, York and Rappahannock rivers in spring 2020, evaluating hatchery programs, and contributing to coast-wide assessments (ASMFC 2007, ASMFC 2020). We also report on two fisheryindependent monitoring programs using anchor gillnets in the Rappahannock River (year 3) and the Chickahominy River (year 6; a major tributary of the James River), to determine relative abundance and stock structure for the adult spawning run of river herring (A. pseudoharengus, and A. aestivalis). Further, we report on the year 5 of a monitoring program for juvenile alosines by using nighttime surface trawls in the Chickahominy River and present an index of juvenile abundance from this survey. Additional objectives were to monitor bycatch of American shad in a permitted gill-net fishery and American shad and river herring in pound-net fisheries

Monitoring the Abundance of American Shad and River Herring in Virginia’s Rivers 2022 Annual Report

This report describes the results of a continuing study to estimate the relative abundance and assess the status of American shad (Alosa sapidissima) stocks in Virginia by monitoring the spawning runs in the James, York and Rappahannock rivers in spring 2022, evaluating hatchery programs and contributing to coast-wide assessments (ASMFC 2007a; ASMFC 2020). We also report on a fishery-independent monitoring program to determine abundance and stock structure of river herring (A. pseudoharengus, and A. aestivalis) in Virginia by evaluating the adult spawning runs in the Chickahominy River, a major tributary of the James River, and the Rappahannock River. Further, a recently added objective of this study was to complement the monitoring of the adult spawning population of American shad and river herring in the James River system by monitoring juvenile alosines by using nighttime surface trawls in the Chickahominy River and calculate an index of juvenile abundance. Additional objectives were to monitor bycatch of American shad in a permitted gillnet fishery and American shad and river herring in pound net fisheries

Intrinsic Anthropometric Factors Associated with Bone Stress Injuries in Collegiate Runners: New Risk Metrics & Novel Field Screening Tools

Lower extremity bone stress injuries (BSI) (i.e. pelvis, femur, tibia) are common in distance running athletes relative to other sports. PURPOSE: To (1) characterize bone mineral density (BMD), body composition (BComp, DXA), and anthropometric parameters in D1A collegiate runners presenting with and without BSIs during a collegiate season and (2) develop BMD prediction models with an accompanying mobile application for novel noninvasive field prediction of BMD and BSI risk. METHODS: Distance runners (n = 79; 42♂, 37♀) from a single university track and field team were retrospectively enrolled into study. The runners completed a DXA scan during fall screening (August-November). Three months after scanning, medical records were reviewed for the occurrence of BSI confirmed by a licensed physician. A t-test was used to compare BMD (total and regional [spine, pelvis, and legs]), BComp (% body fat, fat mass, and lean mass), and anthropometric measurements (shoulder width and leg, arm, and trunk length) between runners with versus without BSI (included subgroup analysis by sex). Multiple linear regression with stepwise removal was used to determine variables most predictive of BMD. Xcode (Apple Inc.) was used to develop the mobile application based on the derived BMD prediction models utilizing lower-bound 95% confidence intervals for runner-specific BMD norms as risk cutoffs. RESULTS: Eighteen runners (22.8%; 11♀, 7♂) sustained a lower limb BSI. Compared to the noninjured group (NoBSI), injured runners (BSI) had lower total BMD (NoBSI: 1.24 0.02, BSI: 1.15 0.04, p\u3c0.001) and regional BMD (spine -11%, legs -9%, pelvis -10%, p\u3c0.001). Injured athletes were observed to have shorter leg length (NoBSI: 95.6 1.4cm, BSI: 91.9 2.6cm, p=0.015) and arm length (NoBSI: 56.1 0.8, BSI: 53.8 1.5, p=0.006). Injured males had lower fat mass (NoBSI: 7.7 0.5kg, BSI: 6.4 0.7cm, p=0.041) and injured females had lower leg lean mass (NoBSI: 14.7 0.6kg, BSI: 13.5 0.7kg, p=0.035). BComp and anthropometric measures were predictive of bone mass (p\u3c0.05, R2 =0.61; SE= ±0.27kg) and BMD (Total: p\u3c0.05, R2 =0.77; SE= ±0.05g/cm2). BONE MASS, kg = (0.046 x Ageyears) +(0.024 x Weightkg) +(0.014 x %BodyFat) +(-0.017 x Arm Lengthcm) +(0.017 x Shoulder Widthcm) +(-0.009 x Trunk Lengthcm) +(0.037 x Leg Lengthcm) -2.867] | BMD, g cm2 =(-0.011 x %BodyFat) + (0.016 x Fat Mass kg) + (0.203 x Bone Masskg) +(-0.003 x Leg Lengthcm) +1.023. The mobile application was able to successfully run the developed prediction models for BMD assessment. CONCLUSION: Collegiate distance runners with shorter limb lengths, reduced fat mass(♂), reduced leg lean mass(♀), and lower BMD are at an increased risk for a lower extremity BSI. BComp and anthropometric measures are predictive of BMD in this population and may be utilized with the mobile application developed here as a screening tool to identify potentially “at-risk” runners

Monitoring the Abundance of American Shad and River Herring in Virginia\u27s Rivers - 2016 Annual Report

This report describes the results of the nineteenth year of a continuing study to estimate the relative abundance and assess the status of American shad (Alosa sapidissima) stocks in Virginia by monitoring the spawning runs in the James, York and Rappahannock rivers in spring 2016, evaluating hatchery programs, and contributing to coast-wide assessments (ASMFC 2007). We also report on a new fishery-independent monitoring program using staked gillnets to determine relative abundance and stock structure for the adult spawning run of river herring (A. pseudoharengus, and A. aestivalis) in the Rappahannock River. Data are also reported from two separate fishery-independent monitoring programs using a drift gillnet (year 3) and anchor gillnets (year 2) to assess the status of the spawning run of river herring in the Chickahominy River, a major tributary of the James River. Further, we report on the second year of a monitoring program for juvenile alosines by using nighttime surface trawls in the Chickahominy River and calculate an index of juvenile abundance. Additional objectives were to monitor bycatch of American shad in a permitted gill-net fishery and American shad and river herring in pound-net fisheries

Monitoring the Abundance of American Shad and River Herring in Virginia\u27s Rivers - 2019 Annual Report

This report describes the results of the twenty-second year of a continuing study to estimate the relative abundance and assess the status of American shad (Alosa sapidissima) stocks in Virginia by monitoring the spawning runs in the James, York and Rappahannock rivers in spring 2019, evaluating hatchery programs, and contributing to coast-wide assessments (ASMFC 2007). We also report on two fishery-independent monitoring programs using anchor gillnets in the Rappahannock River (year 2) and the Chickahominy River (year 5; a major tributary of the James River), to determine relative abundance and stock structure for the adult spawning run of river herring (A. pseudoharengus, and A. aestivalis). Further, we report on the fourth year of a monitoring program for juvenile alosines by using nighttime surface trawls in the Chickahominy River and calculate an index of juvenile abundance. Additional objectives were to monitor bycatch of American shad in a permitted gill-net fishery and American shad and river herring in pound-net fisheries