Estimation of the Default Risk of Publicly Traded Canadian Companies

In this paper, we investigate the hybrid contingent claim approach with publicly traded Canadian companies listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange. Our goal is to assess how combining their continuous valuation by the market with the value given in their financial statements improves our ability to predict their probability of default. Our results indicate that the predicted structural probabilities of default (PDs from the structural model) contribute significantly to explaining default probabilities when PDs are included alongside the retained accounting variables. We also show that quarterly updates to the PDs add a large amount of dynamic information to explain the probabilities of default over the course of a year. This flexibility would not be possible with a reduced-form model. We also conducted a preliminary analysis of correlations between sructural probabilities of default for the firms in our database. Our results indicate that there are substantial correlations in the studied data.Default risk, public firm, structural model, reduced form model, hybrid model, probit model, Toronto Stock Exchange, correlations between default probabilities

Estimation of the Default Risk of Publicly Traded Canadian Companies

Two models of default risk are prominent in the financial literature: Merton's structural model and Altman's non-structural model. Merton's structural model has the benefit of being responsive, since the probabilities of default can continually be updated with the evolution of firms' asset values. Its main flaw lies in the fact that it may over- or underestimate the probabilities of default, since asset values are unobservable and must be extrapolated from the share prices. Altman's nonstructural model, on the other hand, is more precise, since it uses firms' accounting data-but it is less flexible. In this paper, the authors investigate the hybrid contingent claims approach with publicly traded Canadian companies listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange. The authors' goal is to assess how their ability to predict companies' probability of default is improved by combining the companies' continuous market valuation (structural model) with the value given in their financial statements (non-structural model). The authors' results indicate that the predicted structural probabilities of default (PDs from the structural model) contribute significantly to explaining default probabilities when PDs are included alongside the retained accounting variables in the hybrid model. The authors also show that quarterly updates to the PDs add a large amount of dynamic information to explain the probabilities of default over the course of a year. This flexibility would not be possible with a non-structural model. The authors conduct a preliminary analysis of correlations between structural probabilities of default for the firms in their database. Their results indicate that there are substantial correlations in the studied data.Debt management; Credit and credit aggregates; Financial markets; Recent economic and financial developments; Econometric and statistical methods

International Asteroid Warning Network Timing Campaign : 2019 XS

Peer reviewe

Portal Vein and Mesenteric Artery Thrombosis Following the Administration of an Ad26.COV2-S Vaccine—First Case from Romania: A Case Report

COVID-19 has significantly affected public health, social life, and economies worldwide. The only effective way to combat the pandemic is through vaccines. Although the vaccines have been in use for some time, safety concerns have still been raised. The most typical adverse effects of receiving a COVID-19 vaccine are localized reactions near the injection site, followed by general physical symptoms such as headaches, fatigue, muscle pain, and fever. Additionally, some people may experience VITT (vaccine-induced immune thrombotic thrombocytopenia), a rare side effect after vaccination. We present the case of a 60-year-old female patient that developed VITT-like symptoms with spleno-portal thrombosis and intestinal ischemia two weeks after the administration of the Ad26.COV2-S vaccine. Surgical treatment consisted of extensive bowel resection with end jejunostomy and feeding ileostomy. Two weeks after the first operation, a duodenal-ileal anastomosis was performed. The patient was discharged five weeks after the onset of the symptoms. Although some rare adverse effects are associated with the SARS-CoV-2 vaccines, the risk of hospitalization from these harmful effects is lower than the risk of hospitalization from COVID-19. Therefore, recognizing VITT is significant for ensuring the early treatment of clots and proper follow-up

Evaluation of Dispersion Methods and Mechanical Behaviour of Glass Fibre Composites with Embedded Self-Healing Systems

The present paper is focused on evaluating the most suitable dispersion method in the epoxy matrix of two self-healing systems containing dicyclopentadiene (DCPD) and 5-ethylidene-2-norbornene (ENB) monomers encapsulated in a urea-formaldehyde (UF) shell, prior to integration, fabrication and impact testing of specimens. Both microstructural analysis and three-point bending tests were performed to evaluate and assess the optimum dispersion method. It was found that ultrasonication damages the microcapsules of both healing systems, thus magnetic stirring was used for the dispersion of both healing systems in the epoxy matrix. Using magnetic dispersion, 5%, 7%, 10%, 12% and 15% volumes of microcapsules were embedded in glass fibre composites. Some of the samples were subjected to thermal cycling between −20 °C and +100 °C for 8 h, to evaluate the behaviour of both healing systems after temperature variation. Impact test results showed that the mechanical behaviour decreases with increasing microcapsule volume, while for specimens subjected to thermal cycling, the impact strength increases with microcapsule volume up to 10%, after which a severe drop in impact strength follows. Retesting after 48 h shows a major drop in mechanical properties in specimens containing 15% MUF-ENB microcapsules, up to total penetration of the specimen

Percutaneous Tricuspid Valve Regurgitation Repair With the MitraClip Device Using an Edge-to-Edge Bicuspidization Technique.

Patients who present with both severe mitral and tricuspid regurgitation who are symptomatic despite optimal medical therapy and at prohibitive risk for surgery pose a significant therapeutic challenge. The MitraClip device (Abbott Vascular) is approved for percutaneous mitral valve repair in high-risk and non-operative patients, and has also been used for tricuspid valve repair. Imaging support for percutaneous edge-to-edge tricuspid valve repair has not been reported and is a vital part of the procedure. Here, we present a periprocedural imaging strategy for percutaneous tricuspid valve repair with the MitraClip device using a bicuspidization technique

International Asteroid Warning Network Timing Campaign : 2019 XS

Peer reviewe

Evaluation of a quality improvement intervention to reduce anastomotic leak following right colectomy (EAGLE): pragmatic, batched stepped-wedge, cluster-randomized trial in 64 countries

Background Anastomotic leak affects 8 per cent of patients after right colectomy with a 10-fold increased risk of postoperative death. The EAGLE study aimed to develop and test whether an international, standardized quality improvement intervention could reduce anastomotic leaks. Methods The internationally intended protocol, iteratively co-developed by a multistage Delphi process, comprised an online educational module introducing risk stratification, an intraoperative checklist, and harmonized surgical techniques. Clusters (hospital teams) were randomized to one of three arms with varied sequences of intervention/data collection by a derived stepped-wedge batch design (at least 18 hospital teams per batch). Patients were blinded to the study allocation. Low- and middle-income country enrolment was encouraged. The primary outcome (assessed by intention to treat) was anastomotic leak rate, and subgroup analyses by module completion (at least 80 per cent of surgeons, high engagement; less than 50 per cent, low engagement) were preplanned. Results A total 355 hospital teams registered, with 332 from 64 countries (39.2 per cent low and middle income) included in the final analysis. The online modules were completed by half of the surgeons (2143 of 4411). The primary analysis included 3039 of the 3268 patients recruited (206 patients had no anastomosis and 23 were lost to follow-up), with anastomotic leaks arising before and after the intervention in 10.1 and 9.6 per cent respectively (adjusted OR 0.87, 95 per cent c.i. 0.59 to 1.30; P = 0.498). The proportion of surgeons completing the educational modules was an influence: the leak rate decreased from 12.2 per cent (61 of 500) before intervention to 5.1 per cent (24 of 473) after intervention in high-engagement centres (adjusted OR 0.36, 0.20 to 0.64; P < 0.001), but this was not observed in low-engagement hospitals (8.3 per cent (59 of 714) and 13.8 per cent (61 of 443) respectively; adjusted OR 2.09, 1.31 to 3.31). Conclusion Completion of globally available digital training by engaged teams can alter anastomotic leak rates. Registration number: NCT04270721 (http://www.clinicaltrials.gov)