Social distancing strategies against disease spreading

The recurrent infectious diseases and their increasing impact on the society has promoted the study of strategies to slow down the epidemic spreading. In this review we outline the applications of percolation theory to describe strategies against epidemic spreading on complex networks. We give a general outlook of the relation between link percolation and the susceptible-infected-recovered model, and introduce the node void percolation process to describe the dilution of the network composed by healthy individual, $i.e$, the network that sustain the functionality of a society. Then, we survey two strategies: the quenched disorder strategy where an heterogeneous distribution of contact intensities is induced in society, and the intermittent social distancing strategy where health individuals are persuaded to avoid contact with their neighbors for intermittent periods of time. Using percolation tools, we show that both strategies may halt the epidemic spreading. Finally, we discuss the role of the transmissibility, $i.e$, the effective probability to transmit a disease, on the performance of the strategies to slow down the epidemic spreading.Comment: to be published in "Perspectives and Challenges in Statistical Physics and Complex Systems for the Next Decade", Word Scientific Pres

Monitoring luminous yellow massive stars in M33: new yellow hypergiant candidates

The evolution of massive stars surviving the red supergiant (RSG) stage remains unexplored due to the rarity of such objects. The yellow hypergiants (YHGs) appear to be the warm counterparts of post-RSG classes located near the Humphreys-Davidson upper luminosity limit, which are characterized by atmospheric instability and high mass-loss rates. We aim to increase the number of YHGs in M33 and thus to contribute to a better understanding of the pre-supernova evolution of massive stars. Optical spectroscopy of five dust-enshrouded YSGs selected from mid-IR criteria was obtained with the goal of detecting evidence of extensive atmospheres. We also analyzed BVI photometry for 21 of the most luminous YSGs in M33 to identify changes in the spectral type. To explore the properties of circumstellar dust, we performed SED-fitting of multi-band photometry of the 21 YSGs. We find three luminous YSGs in our sample to be YHG candidates, as they are surrounded by hot dust and are enshrouded within extended, cold dusty envelopes. Our spectroscopy of star 2 shows emission of more than one H$\alpha$ component, as well as emission of CaII, implying an extended atmospheric structure. In addition, the long-term monitoring of the star reveals a dimming in the visual light curve of amplitude larger than 0.5 mag that caused an apparent drop in the temperature that exceeded 500 K. We suggest the observed variability to be analogous to that of the Galactic YHG $\rho$ Cas. Five less luminous YSGs are suggested as post-RSG candidates showing evidence of hot or/and cool dust emission. We demonstrate that mid-IR photometry, combined with optical spectroscopy and time-series photometry, provide a robust method for identifying candidate YHGs. Future discovery of YHGs in Local Group galaxies is critical for the study of the late evolution of intermediate-mass massive stars.Comment: 24 pages, 12 figures, 7 Tables. A&A in pres

The 2MASS Tully-Fisher Survey : Mapping the Mass in the Universe

The 2MASS Tully-Fisher Survey (2MTF) aims to measure Tully-Fisher (TF) distances for all bright inclined spirals in the 2MASS Redshift Survey (2MRS) using high quality HI widths and 2MASS photometry. Compared with previous peculiar velocity surveys, the 2MTF survey provides more accurate width measurements and more uniform sky coverage, combining observations with the Green Bank, Arecibo and Parkes telescopes. With this new redshift-independent distance database, we will significantly improve our understanding of the mass distribution in the local universe.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures, IAU Symposium 289 proceedin

Evolution equation for a model of surface relaxation in complex networks

In this paper we derive analytically the evolution equation of the interface for a model of surface growth with relaxation to the minimum (SRM) in complex networks. We were inspired by the disagreement between the scaling results of the steady state of the fluctuations between the discrete SRM model and the Edward-Wilkinson process found in scale-free networks with degree distribution $P(k) \sim k^{-\lambda}$ for $\lambda <3$ [Pastore y Piontti {\it et al.}, Phys. Rev. E {\bf 76}, 046117 (2007)]. Even though for Euclidean lattices the evolution equation is linear, we find that in complex heterogeneous networks non-linear terms appear due to the heterogeneity and the lack of symmetry of the network; they produce a logarithmic divergency of the saturation roughness with the system size as found by Pastore y Piontti {\it et al.} for $\lambda <3$.Comment: 9 pages, 2 figure

The Cepheid distance to the maser-host galaxy NGC 4258: Studying systematics with the Large Binocular Telescope

We identify and phase a sample of 81 Cepheids in the maser-host galaxy NGC 4258 using the Large Binocular Telescope (LBT), and obtain calibrated mean magnitudes in up to 4 filters for a subset of 43 Cepheids using archival HST data. We employ 3 models to study the systematic effects of extinction, the assumed extinction law, and metallicity on the Cepheid distance to NGC 4258. We find a correction to the Cepheid colors consistent with a grayer extinction law in NGC 4258 compared to the Milky Way ($R_V =4.9$), although we believe this is indicative of other systematic effects. If we combine our Cepheid sample with previously known Cepheids, we find a significant metallicity adjustment to the distance modulus of $\gamma_1 = -0.61 \pm 0.21$ mag/dex, for the Zaritsky et al. (1994) metallicity scale, as well as a weak trend of Cepheid colors with metallicity. Conclusions about the absolute effect of metallicity on Cepheid mean magnitudes appear to be limited by the available data on the metallicity gradient in NGC 4258, but our Cepheid data require at least some metallicity adjustment to make the Cepheid distance consistent with independent distances to the LMC and NGC 4258. From our ensemble of models and the geometric maser distance of NGC 4258 ($\mu_{N4258} = 29.40 \pm 0.06$ mag), we estimate $\mu_{LMC} = 18.57 \pm 0.14$ mag ($51.82 \pm 3.23$ kpc).Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRAS. 28 pages, 13 figures, 11 tables. A brief video summarizing the key results of this paper can be found at http://youtu.be/ICTTNyxZ89

A prototype for SONTRAC, a scintillating plastic fiber tracking detector for neutron imaging and spectroscopy

We report on tests of a prototype detector system designed to perform imaging and spectroscopy on 20 to 250 MeV neutrons. Although developed for the study of high-energy solar flare processes, the detection techniques employed for SONTRAC, the SOlar Neutron TRACking experiment, can be applied to measurements in a variety of disciplines including atmospheric physics, radiation therapy and nuclear materials monitoring. The SONTRAC instrument measures the energy and direction ofneutrons by detecting double neutron-proton scatters and recording images of the ionization tracks of the recoil protons in a densely packed bundle of scintillating plastic fibers stacked in orthogonal layers. By tracking the recoil protons from individual neutrons, the kinematics of the scatter are determined. This directional information results in a high signal to noise measurement. SONTRAC is also capable of detecting and measuring high-energy gamma rays \u3e20 MeV as a “solid-state spark chamber”. The self-triggering and track imaging features of a prototype for tracking in two dimensions are demonstrated in calibrations with cosmic-ray muons, 14 to ~65 MeV neutrons and ~20 MeV protons

Slow epidemic extinction in populations with heterogeneous infection rates

We explore how heterogeneity in the intensity of interactions between people affects epidemic spreading. For that, we study the susceptible-infected-susceptible model on a complex network, where a link connecting individuals $i$ and $j$ is endowed with an infection rate $\beta_{ij} = \lambda w_{ij}$ proportional to the intensity of their contact $w_{ij}$, with a distribution $P(w_{ij})$ taken from face-to-face experiments analyzed in Cattuto $et\;al.$ (PLoS ONE 5, e11596, 2010). We find an extremely slow decay of the fraction of infected individuals, for a wide range of the control parameter $\lambda$. Using a distribution of width $a$ we identify two large regions in the $a-\lambda$ space with anomalous behaviors, which are reminiscent of rare region effects (Griffiths phases) found in models with quenched disorder. We show that the slow approach to extinction is caused by isolated small groups of highly interacting individuals, which keep epidemic alive for very long times. A mean-field approximation and a percolation approach capture with very good accuracy the absorbing-active transition line for weak (small $a$) and strong (large $a$) disorder, respectively