R squared effect-size measures and overlap between direct and indirect effect in mediation analysis

In a recent article in this journal (Fairchild, MacKinnon, Taborga & Taylor, 2009), a method was described for computing the variance accounted for by the direct effect and the indirect effect in mediation analysis. However, application of this method leads to counterintuitive results, most notably that in some situations in which the direct effect is much stronger than the indirect effect, the latter appears to explain much more variance than the former. The explanation for this is that the Fairchild et al. method handles the strong interdependence of the direct and indirect effect in a way that assigns all overlap variance to the indirect effect. Two approaches for handling this overlap are discussed, but none of them is without disadvantages

Long-term Associations Between Physical Frailty and Performance in Specific Cognitive Domains

Objectives: No longitudinal epidemiological research has reported associations between physical frailty and performance in specific cognitive domains. Our aim was to investigate whether such associations existed in the absence of accompanying neurodegenerative disorders such as mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and dementia. Method: We addressed this issue in a population-based sample of 896 adults aged 70 years and older over 4 waves of data covering a 12-year period. Physical frailty was assessed and a cognitive battery included measures of processing speed, verbal fluency, face and word recognition, episodic memory and simple and choice reaction time (RT). Results: Latent growth models showed frailty was associated with poorer baseline performance in processing speed, verbal fluency, simple and choice RT, and choice intraindividual RT variability. However, no significant effects of frailty on slopes of cognition were observed, suggesting that frailty was not associated with cognitive decline. Importantly, when the models took possible dementia into account, significant effects were retained suggesting that differences were not associated with dementia-related neurodegenerative disorders. Discussion: The findings suggest that frailty-related cognitive deficits may exist independently of mechanisms underpinning neurodegenerative disorders such as MCI and dementia. If confirmed, this finding suggests a new avenue for preventative and therapeutic interventions in clinical and public health contexts for older adults

Diffusion tensor image segmentation of the cerebrum provides a single measure of cerebral small vessel disease severity related to cognitive change.

Cerebral small vessel disease (SVD) is the primary cause of vascular cognitive impairment and is associated with decline in executive function (EF) and information processing speed (IPS). Imaging biomarkers are needed that can monitor and identify individuals at risk of severe cognitive decline. Recently there has been interest in combining several magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) markers of SVD into a unitary score to describe disease severity. Here we apply a diffusion tensor image (DTI) segmentation technique (DSEG) to describe SVD related changes in a single unitary score across the whole cerebrum, to investigate its relationship with cognitive change over a three-year period. 98 patients (aged 43-89) with SVD underwent annual MRI scanning and cognitive testing for up to three years. DSEG provides a vector of 16 discrete segments describing brain microstructure of healthy and/or damaged tissue. By calculating the scalar product of each DSEG vector in reference to that of a healthy ageing control we generate an angular measure (DSEG θ) describing the patients' brain tissue microstructural similarity to a disease free model of a healthy ageing brain. Conventional MRI markers of SVD brain change were also assessed including white matter hyperintensities, cerebral atrophy, incident lacunes, cerebral-microbleeds, and white matter microstructural damage measured by DTI histogram parameters. The impact of brain change on cognition was explored using linear mixed-effects models. Post-hoc sample size analysis was used to assess the viability of DSEG θ as a tool for clinical trials. Changes in brain structure described by DSEG θ were related to change in EF and IPS (p < 0.001) and remained significant in multivariate models including other MRI markers of SVD as well as age, gender and premorbid IQ. Of the conventional markers, presence of new lacunes was the only marker to remain a significant predictor of change in EF and IPS in the multivariate models (p = 0.002). Change in DSEG θ was also related to change in all other MRI markers (p < 0.017), suggesting it may be used as a surrogate marker of SVD damage across the cerebrum. Sample size estimates indicated that fewer patients would be required to detect treatment effects using DSEG θ compared to conventional MRI and DTI markers of SVD severity. DSEG θ is a powerful tool for characterising subtle brain change in SVD that has a negative impact on cognition and remains a significant predictor of cognitive change when other MRI markers of brain change are accounted for. DSEG provides an automatic segmentation of the whole cerebrum that is sensitive to a range of SVD related structural changes and successfully predicts cognitive change. Power analysis shows DSEG θ has potential as a monitoring tool in clinical trials. As such it may provide a marker of SVD severity from a single imaging modality (i.e. DTIs)

Adrift upon a salinity-stratified sea

The structure and variability of upper-ocean properties in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) modulate air-sea interactions, which profoundly influence the pattern and intensity of monsoonal precipitation across the Indian subcontinent. In turn, the bay receives a massive amount of freshwater through river input at its boundaries and from heavy local rainfall, leading to a salinity-stratified surface ocean and shallow mixed layers. Small-scale oceanographic processes that drive variability in near-surface BoB waters complicate the tight coupling between ocean and atmosphere implicit in this seasonal feedback. Unraveling these ocean dynamics and their impact on air-sea interactions is critical to improving the forecasting of intraseasonal variability in the southwest monsoon. To that end, we deployed a wave-powered, rapidly profiling system capable of measuring the structure and variability of the upper 100 m of the BoB. The evolution of upper-ocean structure along the trajectory of the instrument’s roughly two-week drift, along with direct estimates of vertical fluxes of salt and heat, permit assessment of the contributions of various phenomena to temporal and spatial variability in the surface mixed layer depth. Further, these observations suggest that the particular “barrier-layer” stratification found in the BoB may decrease the influence of the wind on mixing processes in the interior, thus isolating the upper ocean from the interior below, and tightening its coupling to the atmosphere abov

Reducing suicidal thoughts in the Australian general population through web-based self-help: study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND: Suicidal thoughts are common in the general population, causing significant disability. However, a substantial number of people struggling with suicidality do not access appropriate services. Online self-help may help overcome barriers to help-seeking. This study aims to examine the effectiveness of an online self-help program targeted at reducing suicidal thoughts compared with an attention-matched control condition in the Australian adult population. This trial is based on a Dutch self-help program, which was found to be effective in reducing suicidal thoughts. METHODS/DESIGN: A total of 570 community-dwelling adults (18 to 65 years old) with suicidal thoughts will be recruited via various media and randomly assigned to the 6-week online program aimed at reducing suicidal thoughts or a 6-week attention-matched control program. Primary outcome measure is the severity of suicidal thoughts. Secondary outcome measures include suicide plans, capacity to cope with suicidal thoughts, reasons for living, symptoms of depression, hopelessness, anxiety/worry, rumination, panic, perceived burdensomeness and thwarted belongingness, acquired capability, alcohol consumption, insomnia, and various cost-effectiveness measures. DISCUSSION: Although the original Dutch trial found web-based self-help to be effective in reducing suicidal thoughts, randomized controlled trials (RCT) of online programs for suicidal thoughts are rare. The present study extends previous research by running the first English language RCT of this sort. As a result of the original study, the current RCT includes refinements to the design, including greater levels of participant anonymity and longer follow-up periods. Limitations of this trial include the potential for high drop-out and the inability to ascertain whether any suicides occur during the study.This study is supported by a grant from the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Australia (GNT1046317) and forms part of research conducted by the NHMRC Centre for Research Excellence in Suicide Prevention (CRESP) (GNT1042580). AC is supported by NHMRC Early Career Fellowship 1013199. PB is supported by NHMRC Early Career Fellowship 1035262. HC is supported by NHMRC Fellowship 1056964

Immune-mediated competition in rodent malaria is most likely caused by induced changes in innate immune clearance of merozoites

Malarial infections are often genetically diverse, leading to competitive interactions between parasites. A quantitative understanding of the competition between strains is essential to understand a wide range of issues, including the evolution of virulence and drug resistance. In this study, we use dynamical-model based Bayesian inference to investigate the cause of competitive suppression of an avirulent clone of Plasmodium chabaudi (AS) by a virulent clone (AJ) in immuno-deficient and competent mice. We test whether competitive suppression is caused by clone-specific differences in one or more of the following processes: adaptive immune clearance of merozoites and parasitised red blood cells (RBCs), background loss of merozoites and parasitised RBCs, RBC age preference, RBC infection rate, burst size, and within-RBC interference. These processes were parameterised in dynamical mathematical models and fitted to experimental data. We found that just one parameter μ, the ratio of background loss rate of merozoites to invasion rate of mature RBCs, needed to be clone-specific to predict the data. Interestingly, μ was found to be the same for both clones in single-clone infections, but different between the clones in mixed infections. The size of this difference was largest in immuno-competent mice and smallest in immuno-deficient mice. This explains why competitive suppression was alleviated in immuno-deficient mice. We found that competitive suppression acts early in infection, even before the day of peak parasitaemia. These results lead us to argue that the innate immune response clearing merozoites is the most likely, but not necessarily the only, mediator of competitive interactions between virulent and avirulent clones. Moreover, in mixed infections we predict there to be an interaction between the clones and the innate immune response which induces changes in the strength of its clearance of merozoites. What this interaction is unknown, but future refinement of the model, challenged with other datasets, may lead to its discovery

Mixing to monsoons: Air-sea interactions in the bay of Bengal

More than 1 billion people depend on rainfall from the South Asian monsoon for their livelihoods. Summertime monsoonal precipitation is highly variable on intraseasonal time scales, with alternating "active" and "break" periods. These intraseasonal oscillations in large-scale atmospheric convection and winds are closely tied to 1°C-2°C variations of sea surface temperature in the Bay of Bengal

The addition of fluoxetine to cognitive behavioural therapy for youth depression (YoDA-C): study protocol for a randomised control trial.

The aim of the Youth Depression Alleviation-Combined Treatment (YoDA-C) study is to determine whether antidepressant medication should be started as a first-line treatment for youth depression delivered concurrently with psychotherapy. Doubts about the use of medication have been raised by meta-analyses in which the efficacy and safety of antidepressants in young people have been questioned, and subsequent treatment guidelines for youth depression have provided only qualified support