Validation of Model Forecasts of the Ambient Solar Wind

Independent and automated validation is a vital step in the progression of models from the research community into operational forecasting use. In this paper we describe a program in development at the CCMC to provide just such a comprehensive validation for models of the ambient solar wind in the inner heliosphere. We have built upon previous efforts published in the community, sharpened their definitions, and completed a baseline study. We also provide first results from this program of the comparative performance of the MHD models available at the CCMC against that of the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model. An important goal of this effort is to provide a consistent validation to all available models. Clearly exposing the relative strengths and weaknesses of the different models will enable forecasters to craft more reliable ensemble forecasting strategies. Models of the ambient solar wind are developing rapidly as a result of improvements in data supply, numerical techniques, and computing resources. It is anticipated that in the next five to ten years, the MHD based models will supplant semi-empirical potential based models such as the WSA model, as the best available forecast models. We anticipate that this validation effort will track this evolution and so assist policy makers in gauging the value of past and future investment in modeling support

Simulations of Astrophysical Fluid Instabilities

We present direct numerical simulations of mixing at Rayleigh-Taylor unstable interfaces performed with the FLASH code, developed at the ASCI/Alliances Center for Astrophysical Thermonuclear Flashes at the University of Chicago. We present initial results of single-mode studies in two and three dimensions. Our results indicate that three-dimensional instabilities grow significantly faster than two-dimensional instabilities and that grid resolution can have a significant effect on instability growth rates. We also find that unphysical diffusive mixing occurs at the fluid interface, particularly in poorly resolved simulations.Comment: 3 pages, 1 figure. To appear in the proceedings of the 20th Texas Symposium on Relativistic Astrophysic

Space Weather Products at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a US inter-agency activity aiming at research in support of the generation of advanced space weather models. As one of its main functions, the CCMC provides to researchers the use of space science models, even if they are not model owners themselves. The second CCMC activity is to support Space Weather forecasting at national Space Weather Forecasting Centers. This second activity involves model evaluations, model transitions to operations, and the development of space weather forecasting tools. Owing to the pace of development in the science community, new model capabilities emerge frequently. Consequently, space weather products and tools involve not only increased validity, but often entirely new capabilities. This presentation will review the present state of space weather tools as well as point out emerging future capabilities

Verification of real-time WSA-ENLIL+Cone simulations of CME arrival-time at the CCMC from 2010-2016

The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA)-ENLIL+Cone model is used extensively in space weather operations world-wide to model CME propagation. As such, it is important to assess its performance. We present validation results of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model installed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) and executed in real-time by the CCMC space weather team. CCMC uses the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model to predict CME arrivals at NASA missions throughout the inner heliosphere. In this work we compare model predicted CME arrival-times to in-situ ICME leading edge measurements at STEREO-A, STEREO-B, and Earth (Wind and ACE) for simulations completed between March 2010-December 2016 (over 1,800 CMEs). We report hit, miss, false alarm, and correct rejection statistics for all three locations. For all predicted CME arrivals, the hit rate is 0.5, and the false alarm rate is 0.1. For the 273 events where the CME was predicted to arrive at Earth, STEREO-A, or STEREO-B, and was actually observed (hit event), the mean absolute arrival-time prediction error was 10.4 +/- 0.9 hours, with a tendency to early prediction error of -4.0 hours. We show the dependence of the arrival-time error on CME input parameters. We also explore the impact of the multi-spacecraft observations used to initialize the model CME inputs by comparing model verification results before and after the STEREO-B communication loss (since September 2014) and STEREO-A sidelobe operations (August 2014-December 2015). There is an increase of 1.7 hours in the CME arrival time error during single, or limited two-viewpoint periods, compared to the three-spacecraft viewpoint period. This trend would apply to a future space weather mission at L5 or L4 as another coronagraph viewpoint to reduce CME arrival time errors compared to a single L1 viewpoint

Large-Scale Simulations of Clusters of Galaxies

We discuss some of the computational challenges encountered in simulating the evolution of clusters of galaxies. Eulerian adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) techniques can successfully address these challenges but are currently being used by only a few groups. We describe our publicly available AMR code, FLASH, which uses an object-oriented framework to manage its AMR library, physics modules, and automated verification. We outline the development of the FLASH framework to include collisionless particles, permitting it to be used for cluster simulation.Comment: 3 pages, 3 figures, to appear in Proceedings of the VII International Workshop on Advanced Computing and Analysis Techniques in Physics Research (ACAT 2000), Fermilab, Oct. 16-20, 200

NASA GSFC CCMC Recent Model Validation Activities

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) holds the largest assembly of state-of-the-art physics-based space weather models developed by the international space physics community. In addition to providing the community easy access to these modern space research models to support science research, its another primary goal is to test and validate models for transition from research to operations. In this presentation, we provide an overview of the space science models available at CCMC. Then we will focus on the community-wide model validation efforts led by CCMC in all domains of the Sun-Earth system and the internal validation efforts at CCMC to support space weather servicesjoperations provided its sibling organization - NASA GSFC Space Weather Center (http://swc.gsfc.nasa.gov). We will also discuss our efforts in operational model validation in collaboration with NOAA/SWPC

Multigrid elliptic equation solver with adaptive mesh refinement

In this paper we describe in detail the computational algorithm used by our parallel multigrid elliptic equation solver with adaptive mesh refinement. Our code uses truncation error estimates to adaptively refine the grid as part of the solution process. The presentation includes a discussion of the orders of accuracy that we use for prolongation and restriction operators to ensure second order accurate results and to minimize computational work. Code tests are presented that confirm the overall second order accuracy and demonstrate the savings in computational resources provided by adaptive mesh refinement.Comment: 12 pages, 9 figures, Modified in response to reviewer suggestions, added figure, added references. Accepted for publication in J. Comp. Phy

Validation for global solar wind prediction using Ulysses comparison: Multiple coronal and heliospheric models installed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

The prediction of the background global solar wind is a necessary part of space weather forecasting. Several coronal and heliospheric models have been installed and/or recently upgraded at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), including the Wangâ Sheelyâ Arge (WSA)â Enlil model, MHDâ Aroundâ aâ Sphere (MAS)â Enlil model, Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF), and heliospheric tomography using interplanetary scintillation data. Ulysses recorded the last fast latitudinal scan from southern to northern poles in 2007. By comparing the modeling results with Ulysses observations over seven Carrington rotations, we have extended our thirdâ party validation from the previous nearâ Earth solar wind to middle to high latitudes, in the same late declining phase of solar cycle 23. Besides visual comparison, we have quantitatively assessed the models’ capabilities in reproducing the time series, statistics, and latitudinal variations of solar wind parameters for a specific range of model parameter settings, inputs, and grid configurations available at CCMC. The WSAâ Enlil model results vary with three different magnetogram inputs. The MASâ Enlil model captures the solar wind parameters well, despite its underestimation of the speed at middle to high latitudes. The new version of SWMF misses many solar wind variations probably because it uses lower grid resolution than other models. The interplanetary scintillationâ tomography cannot capture the latitudinal variations of solar wind well yet. Because the model performance varies with parameter settings which are optimized for different epochs or flow states, the performance metric study provided here can serve as a template that researchers can use to validate the models for the time periods and conditions of interest to them.Key PointsPerformance metrics for the global solar wind prediction are developedEight model combinations are validated with strengths and weaknesses identified for each modelEffect of model internal parameter settings and magnetogram input is discussedPeer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/134247/1/swe20343_am.pdfhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/134247/2/swe20343.pd