56 research outputs found
Identifying the sources of uncertainty in climate model simulations of solar radiation modification with the G6sulfur and G6solar Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) simulations
We present here results from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) simulations for the experiments G6sulfur and G6solar for six Earth system models participating in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phase 6. The aim of the experiments is to reduce the warming that results from a high-tier emission scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP5-8.5) to that resulting from a medium-tier emission scenario (SSP2-4.5). These simulations aim to analyze the response of climate models to a reduction in incoming surface radiation as a means to reduce global surface temperatures, and they do so either by simulating a stratospheric sulfate aerosol layer or, in a more idealized way, through a uniform reduction in the solar constant in the model. We find that over the final two decades of this century there are considerable inter-model spreads in the needed injection amounts of sulfate (29±9Tg-SO2/yr between 2081 and 2100), in the latitudinal distribution of the aerosol cloud and in the stratospheric temperature changes resulting from the added aerosol layer. Even in the simpler G6solar experiment, there is a spread in the needed solar dimming to achieve the same global temperature target (1.91±0.44). The analyzed models already show significant differences in the response to the increasing CO2 concentrations for global mean temperatures and global mean precipitation (2.05K±0.42K and 2.28±0.80, respectively, for SSP5-8.5 minus SSP2-4.5 averaged over 2081-2100). With aerosol injection, the differences in how the aerosols spread further change some of the underlying uncertainties, such as the global mean precipitation response (-3.79±0.76 for G6sulfur compared to -2.07±0.40 for G6solar against SSP2-4.5 between 2081 and 2100). These differences in the behavior of the aerosols also result in a larger uncertainty in the regional surface temperature response among models in the case of the G6sulfur simulations, suggesting the need to devise various, more specific experiments to single out and resolve particular sources of uncertainty. The spread in the modeled response suggests that a degree of caution is necessary when using these results for assessing specific impacts of geoengineering in various aspects of the Earth system. However, all models agree that compared to a scenario with unmitigated warming, stratospheric aerosol geoengineering has the potential to both globally and locally reduce the increase in surface temperatures. © 2021 Daniele Visioni et al
Regional Hydroclimate Response to Stratospheric Sulfate Geoengineering and the Role of Stratospheric Heating
Geoengineering methods could potentially offset aspects of greenhouse gasâdriven climate change. However, before embarking on any such strategy, a comprehensive understanding of its impacts must be obtained. Here, a 20âmember ensemble of simulations with the Community Earth System Model with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model as its atmospheric component is used to investigate the projected hydroclimate changes that occur when greenhouse gasâdriven warming, under a high emissions scenario, is offset with stratospheric aerosol geoengineering. Notable features of the late 21st century hydroclimate response, relative to present day, include a reduction in precipitation in the Indian summer monsoon, over much of Africa, Amazonia and southern Chile and a wintertime precipitation reduction over the Mediterranean. Over most of these regions, the soil desiccation that occurs with global warming is, however, largely offset by the geoengineering. A notable exception is India, where soil desiccation and an approximate doubling of the likelihood of monsoon failures occurs. The role of stratospheric heating in the simulated hydroclimate change is determined through additional experiments where the aerosolâinduced stratospheric heating is imposed as a temperature tendency, within the same model, under present day conditions. Stratospheric heating is found to play a key role in many aspects of projected hydroclimate change, resulting in a general wetâgetâdrier, dryâgetâwetter pattern in the tropics and extratropical precipitation changes through midlatitude circulation shifts. While a rather extreme geoengineering scenario has been considered, many, but not all, of the precipitation features scale linearly with the offset global warming
Climate response to off-equatorial stratospheric sulfur injections in three Earth system models â Part 1: Experimental protocols and surface changes
There is now substantial literature on climate model studies of equatorial or tropical stratospheric SO2 injections that aim to counteract the surface warming produced by rising concentrations of greenhouse gases. Here we present the results from the first systematic intercomparison of climate responses in three Earth system models wherein the injection of SO2 occurs at different latitudes in the lower stratosphere: CESM2-WACCM6, UKESM1.0 and GISS-E2.1-G. The first two use a modal aerosol microphysics scheme, while two versions of GISS-E2.1-G use a bulk aerosol (One-Moment Aerosol, OMA) and a two-moment (Multiconfiguration Aerosol TRacker of mIXing state, MATRIX) microphysics approach, respectively. Our aim in this work is to determine commonalities and differences between the climate model responses in terms of the distribution of the optically reflective sulfate aerosols produced from the oxidation of SO2 and in terms of the surface response to the resulting reduction in solar radiation. A focus on understanding the contribution of characteristics of models transport alongside their microphysical and chemical schemes, and on evaluating the resulting stratospheric responses in different models, is given in the companion paper (Bednarz et al., 2023). The goal of this exercise is not to evaluate these single-point injection simulations as stand-alone proposed strategies to counteract global warming; instead we determine sources and areas of agreement and uncertainty in the simulated responses and, ultimately, the possibility of designing a comprehensive intervention strategy capable of managing multiple simultaneous climate goals through the combination of different injection locations.
We find large disagreements between GISS-E2.1-G and the CESM2-WACCM6 and UKESM1.0 models regarding the magnitude of cooling per unit of aerosol optical depth (AOD) produced, which varies from 4.7âK per unit of AOD in CESM2-WACCM6 to 16.7âK in the GISS-E2.1-G version with two-moment aerosol microphysics. By normalizing the results with the global mean response in each of the models and thus assuming that the amount of SO2 injected is a free parameter that can be managed independently, we highlight some commonalities in the overall distributions of the aerosols, in the inter-hemispheric surface temperature response and in shifts to the Intertropical Convergence Zone, as well as some areas of disagreement, such as the extent of the aerosol confinement in the equatorial region and the efficiency of the transport to polar latitudes. In conclusion, we demonstrate that it is possible to use these simulations to produce more comprehensive injection strategies in multiple climate models. However, large differences in the injection magnitudes can be expected, potentially increasing inter-model spreads in some stratospheric quantities (such as aerosol distribution) while reducing the spread in the surface response in terms of temperature and precipitation; furthermore, the selection of the injection locations may be dependent on the models' specific stratospheric transport.</p
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Detecting sulphate aerosol geoengineering with different methods
Sulphate aerosol injection has been widely discussed as a possible way to engineer future climate. Monitoring it would require detecting its effects amidst internal variability and in the presence of other external forcings. We investigate how the use of different detection methods and filtering techniques affects the detectability of sulphate aerosol geoengineering in annual-mean global-mean near-surface air temperature. This is done by assuming a future scenario that injects 5âTgâyrâ1 of sulphur dioxide into the stratosphere and cross-comparing simulations from 5 climate models. 64% of the studied comparisons would require 25 years or more for detection when no filter and the multi-variate method that has been extensively used for attributing climate change are used, while 66% of the same comparisons would require fewer than 10 years for detection using a trend-based filter. This highlights the high sensitivity of sulphate aerosol geoengineering detectability to the choice of filter. With the same trend-based filter but a non-stationary method, 80% of the comparisons would require fewer than 10 years for detection. This does not imply sulphate aerosol geoengineering should be deployed, but suggests that both detection methods could be used for monitoring geoengineering in global, annual mean temperature should it be needed
Climate response to off-equatorial stratospheric sulfur injections in three Earth system models â Part 2: Stratospheric and free-tropospheric response
The paper constitutes Part 2 of a study performing a first systematic
inter-model comparison of the atmospheric responses to stratospheric aerosol
injection (SAI) at various single latitudes in the tropics, as simulated by
three state-of-the-art Earth system models â CESM2-WACCM6, UKESM1.0, and
GISS-E2.1-G. Building on Part 1 (Visioni et al., 2023) we demonstrate
the role of biases in the climatological circulation and specific aspects of
the model microphysics in driving the inter-model differences in the
simulated sulfate distributions. We then characterize the simulated changes
in stratospheric and free-tropospheric temperatures, ozone, water vapor, and
large-scale circulation, elucidating the role of the above aspects in
the surface SAI responses discussed in Part 1.
We show that the differences in the aerosol spatial distribution can be
explained by the significantly faster shallow branches of the BrewerâDobson
circulation in CESM2, a relatively isolated tropical pipe and older tropical
age of air in UKESM, and smaller aerosol sizes and relatively stronger
horizontal mixing (thus very young stratospheric age of air) in the two GISS
versions used. We also find a large spread in the magnitudes of the tropical
lower-stratospheric warming amongst the models, driven by microphysical,
chemical, and dynamical differences. These lead to large differences in
stratospheric water vapor responses, with significant increases in
stratospheric water vapor under SAI in CESM2 and GISS that were largely not
reproduced in UKESM. For ozone, good agreement was found in the tropical
stratosphere amongst the models with more complex microphysics, with lower
stratospheric ozone changes consistent with the SAI-induced modulation of
the large-scale circulation and the resulting changes in transport. In
contrast, we find a large inter-model spread in the Antarctic ozone
responses that can largely be explained by the differences in the simulated
latitudinal distributions of aerosols as well as the degree of
implementation of heterogeneous halogen chemistry on sulfate in the models.
The use of GISS runs with bulk microphysics demonstrates the importance of
more detailed treatment of aerosol processes, with contrastingly different
stratospheric SAI responses to the models using the two-moment aerosol
treatment; however, some problems in halogen chemistry in GISS are also
identified that require further attention. Overall, our results contribute
to an increased understanding of the underlying physical mechanisms as well
as identifying and narrowing the uncertainty in model projections of climate
impacts from SAI.</p
Dynamic climate emulators for solar geoengineering
Climate emulators trained on existing simulations can be used to project
project the climate effects that result from different possible future
pathways of anthropogenic forcing, without further relying on general
circulation model (GCM) simulations. We extend this idea to include different
amounts of solar geoengineering in addition to different pathways of
greenhouse gas concentrations, by training emulators from a multi-model
ensemble of simulations from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project
(GeoMIP). The emulator is trained on the abrupt 4âĂâCO<sub>2</sub> and a
compensating solar reduction simulation (G1), and evaluated by comparing
predictions against a simulated 1âŻ% per year CO<sub>2</sub> increase and a
similarly smaller solar reduction (G2). We find reasonable agreement in most
models for predicting changes in temperature and precipitation (including
regional effects), and annual-mean Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent, with
the difference between simulation and prediction typically being smaller than
natural variability. This verifies that the linearity assumption used in
constructing the emulator is sufficient for these variables over the range of
forcing considered. Annual-minimum Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent is less
well predicted, indicating a limit to the linearity assumption
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