Development of a best practice statement on the use of ankle-foot orthoses following stroke in Scotland

A National Health Service Quality Improvement Scotland (NHS QIS) scoping exercise in 2007 identified the use of ankle-foot orthoses (AFOs) following stroke as a clinical improvement priority, leading to the development of a best practice statement (BPS) on AFO use after stroke. This paper outlines the development process of the BPS which is available from NHS QIS. The authors were involved in the development of the BPS as part of a working group that included practitioners from the fields of orthotics, physiotherapy, stroke nursing and bioengineering, and staff of NHS QIS and a patient representative. In consultation with an NHS QIS health services researcher, the authors undertook a systematic literature review to evidence where possible the recommendations made in the BPS. Where evidence was unavailable, consensus was reached by the expert working group. As the BPS was designed for the non-specialist and non-orthotic practitioner the authors also developed educational resources which were included within the BPS to aid the understanding of the principles underpinning orthotic design and prescription. The BPS has been widely distributed throughout the health service in Scotland and is available electronically at no cost via the NHS QIS website. At part of an ongoing evaluation of the impact of the BPS on the quality of orthotic provision, NHS QIS has invited feedback regarding successes and challenges to implementation

Predicting Fluid Intelligence of Children using T1-weighted MR Images and a StackNet

In this work, we utilize T1-weighted MR images and StackNet to predict fluid intelligence in adolescents. Our framework includes feature extraction, feature normalization, feature denoising, feature selection, training a StackNet, and predicting fluid intelligence. The extracted feature is the distribution of different brain tissues in different brain parcellation regions. The proposed StackNet consists of three layers and 11 models. Each layer uses the predictions from all previous layers including the input layer. The proposed StackNet is tested on a public benchmark Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development Neurocognitive Prediction Challenge 2019 and achieves a mean squared error of 82.42 on the combined training and validation set with 10-fold cross-validation. In addition, the proposed StackNet also achieves a mean squared error of 94.25 on the testing data. The source code is available on GitHub.Comment: 8 pages, 2 figures, 3 tables, Accepted by MICCAI ABCD-NP Challenge 2019; Added ND

Logistic early warning scores to predict death, cardiac arrest or unplanned intensive care unit re-admission after cardiac surgery.

NHS England recently mandated that the National Early Warning Score of vital signs be used in all acute hospital trusts in the UK despite limited validation in the postoperative setting. We undertook a multicentre UK study of 13,631 patients discharged from intensive care after risk-stratified cardiac surgery in four centres, all of which used VitalPACTM to electronically collect postoperative National Early Warning Score vital signs. We analysed 540,127 sets of vital signs to generate a logistic score, the discrimination of which we compared with the national additive score for the composite outcome of: in-hospital death; cardiac arrest; or unplanned intensive care admission. There were 578 patients (4.2%) with an outcome that followed 4300 sets of observations (0.8%) in the preceding 24 h: 499 out of 578 (86%) patients had unplanned re-admissions to intensive care. Discrimination by the logistic score was significantly better than the additive score. Respective areas (95%CI) under the receiver-operating characteristic curve with 24-h and 6-h vital signs were: 0.779 (0.771-0.786) vs. 0.754 (0.746-0.761), p < 0.001; and 0.841 (0.829-0.853) vs. 0.813 (0.800-0.825), p < 0.001, respectively. Our proposed logistic Early Warning Score was better than the current National Early Warning Score at discriminating patients who had an event after cardiac surgery from those who did not

Quantum gravitational contributions to quantum electrodynamics

Quantum electrodynamics describes the interactions of electrons and photons. Electric charge (the gauge coupling constant) is energy dependent, and there is a previous claim that charge is affected by gravity (described by general relativity) with the implication that the charge is reduced at high energies. But that claim has been very controversial with the situation inconclusive. Here I report an analysis (free from earlier controversies) demonstrating that that quantum gravity corrections to quantum electrodynamics have a quadratic energy dependence that result in the reduction of the electric charge at high energies, a result known as asymptotic freedom.Comment: To be published in Nature. 19 pages LaTeX, no figure

Quantum error correction : an introductory guide

Quantum error correction protocols will play a central role in the realisation of quantum computing; the choice of error correction code will influence the full quantum computing stack, from the layout of qubits at the physical level to gate compilation strategies at the software level. As such, familiarity with quantum coding is an essential prerequisite for the understanding of current and future quantum computing architectures. In this review, we provide an introductory guide to the theory and implementation of quantum error correction codes. Where possible, fundamental concepts are described using the simplest examples of detection and correction codes, the working of which can be verified by hand. We outline the construction and operation of the surface code, the most widely pursued error correction protocol for experiment. Finally, we discuss issues that arise in the practical implementation of the surface code and other quantum error correction codes

Use of Advanced Flexible Modeling Approaches for Survival Extrapolation from Early Follow-up Data in two Nivolumab Trials in Advanced NSCLC with Extended Follow-up

Objectives: Immuno-oncology (IO) therapies are often associated with delayed responses that are deep and durable, manifesting as long-term survival benefits in patients with metastatic cancer. Complex hazard functions arising from IO treatments may limit the accuracy of extrapolations from standard parametric models (SPMs). We evaluated the ability of flexible parametric models (FPMs) to improve survival extrapolations using data from 2 trials involving patients with non–small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Methods: Our analyses used consecutive database locks (DBLs) at 2-, 3-, and 5-y minimum follow-up from trials evaluating nivolumab versus docetaxel in patients with pretreated metastatic squamous (CheckMate-017) and nonsquamous (CheckMate-057) NSCLC. For each DBL, SPMs, as well as 3 FPMs—landmark response models (LRMs), mixture cure models (MCMs), and Bayesian multiparameter evidence synthesis (B-MPES)—were estimated on nivolumab overall survival (OS). The performance of each parametric model was assessed by comparing milestone restricted mean survival times (RMSTs) and survival probabilities with results obtained from externally validated SPMs. Results: For the 2- and 3-y DBLs of both trials, all models tended to underestimate 5-y OS. Predictions from nonvalidated SPMs fitted to the 2-y DBLs were highly unreliable, whereas extrapolations from FPMs were much more consistent between models fitted to successive DBLs. For CheckMate-017, in which an apparent survival plateau emerges in the 3-y DBL, MCMs fitted to this DBL estimated 5-y OS most accurately (11.6% v. 12.3% observed), and long-term predictions were similar to those from the 5-y validated SPM (20-y RMST: 30.2 v. 30.5 mo). For CheckMate-057, where there is no clear evidence of a survival plateau in the early DBLs, only B-MPES was able to accurately predict 5-y OS (14.1% v. 14.0% observed [3-y DBL]). Conclusions: We demonstrate that the use of FPMs for modeling OS in NSCLC patients from early follow-up data can yield accurate estimates for RMST observed with longer follow-up and provide similar long-term extrapolations to externally validated SPMs based on later data cuts. B-MPES generated reasonable predictions even when fitted to the 2-y DBLs of the studies, whereas MCMs were more reliant on longer-term data to estimate a plateau and therefore performed better from 3 y. Generally, LRM extrapolations were less reliable than those from alternative FPMs and validated SPMs but remained superior to nonvalidated SPMs. Our work demonstrates the potential benefits of using advanced parametric models that incorporate external data sources, such as B-MPES and MCMs, to allow for accurate evaluation of treatment clinical and cost-effectiveness from trial data with limited follow-up. Flexible advanced parametric modeling methods can provide improved survival extrapolations for immuno-oncology cost-effectiveness in health technology assessments from early clinical trial data that better anticipate extended follow-up. Advantages include leveraging additional observable trial data, the systematic integration of external data, and more detailed modeling of underlying processes. Bayesian multiparameter evidence synthesis performed particularly well, with well-matched external data. Mixture cure models also performed well but may require relatively longer follow-up to identify an emergent plateau, depending on the specific setting. Landmark response models offered marginal benefits in this scenario and may require greater numbers in each response group and/or increased follow-up to support improved extrapolation within each subgroup

Automatic Network Fingerprinting through Single-Node Motifs

Complex networks have been characterised by their specific connectivity patterns (network motifs), but their building blocks can also be identified and described by node-motifs---a combination of local network features. One technique to identify single node-motifs has been presented by Costa et al. (L. D. F. Costa, F. A. Rodrigues, C. C. Hilgetag, and M. Kaiser, Europhys. Lett., 87, 1, 2009). Here, we first suggest improvements to the method including how its parameters can be determined automatically. Such automatic routines make high-throughput studies of many networks feasible. Second, the new routines are validated in different network-series. Third, we provide an example of how the method can be used to analyse network time-series. In conclusion, we provide a robust method for systematically discovering and classifying characteristic nodes of a network. In contrast to classical motif analysis, our approach can identify individual components (here: nodes) that are specific to a network. Such special nodes, as hubs before, might be found to play critical roles in real-world networks.Comment: 16 pages (4 figures) plus supporting information 8 pages (5 figures

Childhood interleukin-6, C-reactive protein and atopic disorders as risk factors for hypomanic symptoms in young adulthood: a longitudinal birth cohort study

$\textbf{Background.}$ There are no existing longitudinal studies of inflammatory markers and atopic disorders in childhood and risk of hypomanic symptoms in adulthood. This study examined if childhood: (1) serum interleukin-6 (IL-6) and C-reactive protein (CRP); and (2) asthma and/or eczema are associated with features of hypomania in young adulthood. $\textbf{Method.}$ Participants in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, a prospective general population UK birth cohort, had non-fasting blood samples for IL-6 and CRP measurement at the age of 9 years ($n$ = 4645), and parents answered a question about doctor-diagnosed atopic illness before the age of 10 years ($n$ = 7809). These participants completed the Hypomania Checklist at age 22 years ($n$ = 3361). $\textbf{Results.}$ After adjusting for age, sex, ethnicity, socio-economic status, past psychological and behavioural problems, body mass index and maternal postnatal depression, participants in the top third of IL-6 values at 9 years, compared with the bottom third, had an increased risk of hypomanic symptoms by age 22 years [adjusted odds ratio 1.77, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.10-2.85, $p$ < 0.001]. Higher IL-6 levels in childhood were associated with adult hypomania features in a dose-response fashion. After further adjustment for depression at the age of 18 years this association remained (adjusted odds ratio 1.70, 95% CI 1.03-2.81, $p$ = 0.038). There was no evidence of an association of hypomanic symptoms with CRP levels, asthma or eczema in childhood. $\textbf{Conclusions.}$ Higher levels of systemic inflammatory marker IL-6 in childhood were associated with hypomanic symptoms in young adulthood, suggesting that inflammation may play a role in the pathophysiology of mania. Inflammatory pathways may be suitable targets for the prevention and intervention for bipolar disorder.The UK Medical Research Council and the Wellcome Trust (grant reference 102215/2/13/2) and the University of Bristol provide core support for ALSPAC. J.F.H. is supported by a Medical Research Council Population Health Scientist Fellowship (grant code: MR/K021362/1)

Optimal measurement of visual motion across spatial and temporal scales

Sensory systems use limited resources to mediate the perception of a great variety of objects and events. Here a normative framework is presented for exploring how the problem of efficient allocation of resources can be solved in visual perception. Starting with a basic property of every measurement, captured by Gabor's uncertainty relation about the location and frequency content of signals, prescriptions are developed for optimal allocation of sensors for reliable perception of visual motion. This study reveals that a large-scale characteristic of human vision (the spatiotemporal contrast sensitivity function) is similar to the optimal prescription, and it suggests that some previously puzzling phenomena of visual sensitivity, adaptation, and perceptual organization have simple principled explanations.Comment: 28 pages, 10 figures, 2 appendices; in press in Favorskaya MN and Jain LC (Eds), Computer Vision in Advanced Control Systems using Conventional and Intelligent Paradigms, Intelligent Systems Reference Library, Springer-Verlag, Berli