Time-to-positivity in bloodstream infection is not a prognostic marker for mortality:analysis of a prospective multicentre randomized control trial

Objectives Time to positivity (TTP), calculated automatically in modern blood culture systems, is considered a proxy for microbial load and has been suggested as a potential prognostic marker in bloodstream infections. In this large, multicentre, prospectively collected cohort, our primary analysis aimed to quantify the relationship between the TTP of monomicrobial blood cultures and mortality. Methods Data from a multicentre randomized controlled trial (RAPIDO) in bloodstream infection were analysed. Bloodstream infections were classified into 13 groups/subgroups. The relationship between mortality and TTP was assessed by logistic regression, adjusted for site, organism, and clinical variables, and linear regression was applied to examine the association between clinical variables and TTP. Robustness was assessed by sensitivity analysis. Results In total 4468 participants were included in the RAPIDO. After exclusions, 3462 were analysed, with the most common organisms being coagulase-negative staphylococci (1072 patients) and Escherichia coli (861 patients); 785 patients (22.7%) died within 28 days. We found no relationship between TTP and mortality for any groups except for streptococci (odds ratio (OR) with each hour 0.98, 95%CI 0.96–1.00) and Candida (OR 1.03, 95%CI 1.00–1.05). There was large variability between organisms and sites in TTP. Fever (geometric mean ratio (GMR) 0.95, 95%CI 0.92–0.99), age (GMR per 10 years 1.01, 95%CI 1.00–1.02), and neutrophilia were associated with TTP (GMR 1.03, 95%CI 1.02–1.04). Conclusions Time to positivity is not associated with mortality, except in the case of Candida spp. (longer times associated with worse outcomes) and possibly streptococci (shorter times associated with worse outcomes). There was a large variation between median times across centres, limiting external validity

Analytical challenges in estimating the effect of exposures that are bounded by follow-up time: experiences from the Blood Stream Infection—Focus on Outcomes study

Abstract Objective To illustrate the challenges of estimating the effect of an exposure that is bounded by duration of follow-up on all-cause 28-day mortality, whilst simultaneously addressing missing data and time-varying covariates. Study design and methods BSI-FOO is a multicentre cohort study with the primary aim of quantifying the effect of modifiable risk factors, including time to initiation of therapy, on all-cause 28-day mortality in patients with bloodstream infection. The primary analysis involved two Cox proportional hazard models, first one for non-modifiable risk factors and second one for modifiable risk factors, with a risk score calculated from the first model included as a covariate in the second model. Modifiable risk factors considered in this study were recorded daily for a maximum of 28 days after infection. Follow-up was split at daily intervals from day 0 to 28 with values of daily collected data updated at each interval (i.e., one row per patient per day). Analytical challenges Estimating the effect of time to initiation of treatment on survival is analytically challenging since only those who survive to time t can wait until time t to start treatment, introducing immortal time bias. Time-varying covariates representing cumulative counts were used for variables bounded by survival time e.g. the cumulative count of days before first receipt of treatment. Multiple imputation using chained equations was used to impute missing data, using conditional imputation to avoid imputing non-applicable data e.g. ward data after discharge. Conclusion Using time-varying covariates represented by cumulative counts within a one row per day per patient framework can reduce the risk of bias in effect estimates. The approach followed uses established methodology and is easily implemented in standard statistical packages

Trade-offs between antibacterial resistance and fitness cost in the production of metallo-b-lactamases by enteric bacteria manifest as sporadic emergence of carbapenem resistance in a clinical setting

Meropenem is a clinically important antibacterial reserved for treatment of multiresistant infections. In meropenem-resistant bacteria of the family Enterobacterales, NDM-1 is considerably more common than IMP-1, despite both metallo-β-lactamases (MBLs) hydrolyzing meropenem with almost identical kinetics. We show that bla(NDM-1) consistently confers meropenem resistance in wild-type Enterobacterales, but bla(IMP-1) does not. The reason is higher bla(NDM-1) expression because of its stronger promoter. However, the cost of meropenem resistance is reduced fitness of bla(NDM-1)-positive Enterobacterales. In parallel, from a clinical case, we identified multiple Enterobacter spp. isolates carrying a plasmid-encoded bla(NDM-1) having a modified promoter region. This modification lowered MBL production to a level associated with zero fitness cost, but, consequently, the isolates were not meropenem resistant. However, we identified a Klebsiella pneumoniae isolate from this same clinical case carrying the same bla(NDM-1) plasmid. This isolate was meropenem resistant despite low-level NDM-1 production because of a ramR mutation reducing envelope permeability. Overall, therefore, we show how the resistance/fitness trade-off for MBL carriage can be resolved. The result is sporadic emergence of meropenem resistance in a clinical setting

Improving the diagnosis and treatment of urinary tract infection in young children in primary care:results from the ‘DUTY’ prospective diagnostic cohort study

PURPOSE Up to 50% of urinary tract infections (UTIs) in young children are missed in primary care. Urine culture is essential for diagnosis, but urine collection is often difficult. Our aim was to derive and internally validate a 2-step clinical rule using (1) symptoms and signs to select children for urine collection; and (2) symptoms, signs, and dipstick testing to guide antibiotic treatment. METHODS We recruited acutely unwell children aged under 5 years from 233 primary care sites across England and Wales. Index tests were parent-reported symptoms, clinician-reported signs, urine dipstick results, and clinician opinion of UTI likelihood (clinical diagnosis before dipstick and culture). The reference standard was microbiologically confirmed UTI cultured from a clean-catch urine sample. We calculated sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operator characteristic (AUROC) curve of coefficient-based (graded severity) and points-based (dichotomized) symptom/sign logistic regression models, and we then internally validated the AUROC using bootstrapping. RESULTS Three thousand thirty-six children provided urine samples, and culture results were available for 2,740 (90%). Of these results, 60 (2.2%) were positive: the clinical diagnosis was 46.6% sensitive, with an AUROC of 0.77. Previous UTI, increasing pain/crying on passing urine, increasingly smelly urine, absence of severe cough, increasing clinician impression of severe illness, abdominal tenderness on examination, and normal findings on ear examination were associated with UTI. The validated coefficient- and points-based model AUROCs were 0.87 and 0.86, respectively, increasing to 0.90 and 0.90, respectively, by adding dipstick nitrites, leukocytes, and blood. CONCLUSIONS A clinical rule based on symptoms and signs is superior to clinician diagnosis and performs well for identifying young children for noninvasive urine sampling. Dipstick results add further diagnostic value for empiric antibiotic treatment

Clinical and cost effectiveness of single stage compared with two stage revision for hip prosthetic joint infection (INFORM):pragmatic, parallel group, open label, randomised controlled trial

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether patient reported outcomes improve after single stage versus two stage revision surgery for prosthetic joint infection of the hip, and to determine the cost effectiveness of these procedures. DESIGN: Pragmatic, parallel group, open label, randomised controlled trial. SETTING: High volume tertiary referral centres or orthopaedic units in the UK (n=12) and in Sweden (n=3), recruiting from 1 March 2015 to 19 December 2018. PARTICIPANTS: 140 adults (aged ≥18 years) with a prosthetic joint infection of the hip who required revision (65 randomly assigned to single stage and 75 to two stage revision). INTERVENTIONS: A computer generated 1:1 randomisation list stratified by hospital was used to allocate participants with prosthetic joint infection of the hip to a single stage or a two stage revision procedure. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary intention-to-treat outcome was pain, stiffness, and functional limitations 18 months after randomisation, measured by the Western Ontario and McMasters Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) score. Secondary outcomes included surgical complications and joint infection. The economic evaluation (only assessed in UK participants) compared quality adjusted life years and costs between the randomised groups. RESULTS: The mean age of participants was 71 years (standard deviation 9) and 51 (36%) were women. WOMAC scores did not differ between groups at 18 months (mean difference 0.13 (95% confidence interval -8.20 to 8.46), P=0.98); however, the single stage procedure was better at three months (11.53 (3.89 to 19.17), P=0.003), but not from six months onwards. Intraoperative events occurred in five (8%) participants in the single stage group and 20 (27%) in the two stage group (P=0.01). At 18 months, nine (14%) participants in the single stage group and eight (11%) in the two stage group had at least one marker of possible ongoing infection (P=0.62). From the perspective of healthcare providers and personal social services, single stage revision was cost effective with an incremental net monetary benefit of £11 167 (95% confidence interval £638 to £21 696) at a £20 000 per quality adjusted life years threshold (£1.0; $1.1; €1.4). CONCLUSIONS: At 18 months, single stage revision compared with two stage revision for prosthetic joint infection of the hip showed no superiority by patient reported outcome. Single stage revision had a better outcome at three months, fewer intraoperative complications, and was cost effective. Patients prefer early restoration of function, therefore, when deciding treatment, surgeons should consider patient preferences and the cost effectiveness of single stage surgery. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN registry ISRCTN10956306.RD&E staff can access the full-text of this article by clicking on the 'Additional Link' above and logging in with NHS OpenAthens if prompted.Unknow

Prediction of fluoroquinolone susceptibility directly from whole-genome sequence data by using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry to identify mutant genotypes

ABSTRACT Fluoroquinolone resistance in Gram-negative bacteria is multifactorial, involving target site mutations, reductions in fluoroquinolone entry due to reduced porin production, increased fluoroquinolone efflux, enzymes that modify fluoroquinolones, and Qnr, a DNA mimic that protects the drug target from fluoroquinolone binding. Here we report a comprehensive analysis, using transformation and in vitro mutant selection, of the relative importance of each of these mechanisms for fluoroquinolone nonsusceptibility using Klebsiella pneumoniae as a model system. Our improved biological understanding was then used to generate 47 rules that can predict fluoroquinolone susceptibility in K. pneumoniae clinical isolates. Key to the success of this predictive process was the use of liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry to measure the abundance of proteins in extracts of cultured bacteria, identifying which sequence variants seen in the whole-genome sequence data were functionally important in the context of fluoroquinolone susceptibility. </jats:p

Optimizing the design and analysis of clinical trials for antibacterials against multidrug-resistant organisms:a white paper from COMBACTE's STAT-Net

Innovations are urgently required for clinical development of antibacterials against multidrug-resistant organisms. Therefore, a European, public-private working group (STAT-Net; part of Combatting Bacterial Resistance in Europe [COMBACTE]), has reviewed and tested several innovative trials designs and analytical methods for randomized clinical trials, which has resulted in 8 recommendations. The first 3 focus on pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic modeling, emphasizing the pertinence of population-based pharmacokinetic models, regulatory procedures for the reassessment of old antibiotics, and rigorous quality improvement. Recommendations 4 and 5 address the need for more sensitive primary end points through the use of rank-based or time-dependent composite end points. Recommendation 6 relates to the applicability of hierarchical nested-trial designs, and the last 2 recommendations propose the incorporation of historical or concomitant trial data through Bayesian methods and/or platform trials. Although not all of these recommendations are directly applicable, they provide a solid, evidence-based approach to develop new, and established, antibacterials and address this public health challenge