Understanding inflation dynamics : Where do we stand ?

I summarize recent progress made in the literature on inflation dynamics. This has been a very productive area of research due to the development of the so-called New Keynesian model and the availability of new macroeconomic and microeconomic evidence. Nevertheless, a number of problems still subsist. In particular the importance of temporary price markdowns to inflation dynamics and the characteristics of the information set price-setters use for their price adjustment decision currently constitute unresolved issuesInflation dynamics, New Keynesian model, sticky prices

The patterns and determinants of price setting in the Belgian industry

This paper documents the patterns and determinants of price setting in the Belgian industry. We analyse the micro data underlying the Producer Price Index (PPI) over the period from February 2001 to January 2005. On average only one out of four prices changes in a typical month, whereas the absolute size of a price change amounts to 6%. The frequencies of price adjustment are particularly heterogeneous across sectors, which is determined by heterogeneity in the market and cost structure. We find no signs of downward nominal rigidity. A joint analysis of sizes and frequencies of price adjustment across time shows that price setting is characterised by both time- and state-dependent pricing. About 38% of the exported goods are a¤ected by pricing-to-market. JEL Classification: D40, E31nominal price rigidity, pricing-to-market, producer price setting, staggering, state-dependent pricing, time-dependent pricing

Measuring inflation persistence: a structural time series approach

Time series estimates of inflation persistence incur an upward bias if shifts in the inflation target of the central bank remain unaccounted for. Using a structural time series approach we measure different sorts of inflation persistence allowing for an unobserved timevarying inflation target. Unobserved components are identified using Kalman filtering and smoothing techniques. Posterior densities of the model parameters and the unobserved components are obtained in a Bayesian framework based on importance sampling. We find that inflation persistence, expressed by the halflife of a shock, can range from 1 quarter in case of a costpush shock to several years for a shock to longrun inflation expectations or the output gap.Inflation persistence, inflation target, Kalman filter, Bayesian analysis.

The patterns and determinants of price setting in the Belgian industry

This paper documents the patterns and determinants of price setting in the Belgian industry. We analyse the micro data underlying the Producer Price Index (PPI) over the period from February 2001 to January 2005. On average only one out of four prices changes in a typical month, whereas the absolute size of a price change amounts to 6 p.c. The frequencies of price adjustment are particularly heterogeneous across sectors, which is determined by heterogeneity in the market and cost structure. We find no signs of downward nominal rigidity. A joint analysis of sizes and frequencies of price adjustment across time shows that price setting is characterised by both time and state-dependent pricing. About 38 p.c. of the exported goods are affected by pricing-to-market.producer price setting, nominal price rigidity, pricing-to-market, time-dependent pricing, state-dependent pricing, staggering

The kinked demand curve and price rigidity : evidence from scanner data

This paper uses scanner data from a large euro area retailer. We extend Deaton and Muellbauer's Almost Ideal Demand System to estimate the price elasticity and curvature of demand for a wide range of products. Our results support the introduction of a kinked (concave) demand curve in general equilibrium macro models. We find that the price elasticity of demand is on average higher for price increases than for price decreases. However, the degree of curvature in demand is much lower than is currently imposed. Moreover, for a significant fraction of products we observe a convex demand curve. We find no correlation between the estimated price elasticity/curvature and the observed size or frequency of price adjustment in our dataprice setting, real rigidity, kinked demand curve, behavioral AIDS

Employment, Hours and the Welfare Effects of Intra-Firm Bargaining

Ce Working Paper fait l'objet d'une publication in Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier 〈https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304393218305294〉〈hal-01995026〉Intra-firm bargaining between a multiple-worker firm and an individual employee leads to overhiring. Taking advantage of the decreasing returns to scale in employment, the firm can reduce the marginal product by hiring an additional worker, thereby reducing the bargaining wage paid to all existing employees. We show that this externality is amplified when firms can adjust hours per worker as well as employment. Hours are too low at the steady state. This misallocation of labor leads to sizeable welfare losses. Our finding is important for economies in which hours adjustment play an important role as it does in many Euro Area countries

Effectiveness and transmission of the ECB’s balance sheet policies. National Bank of Belgium Working Paper No. 275, December 2014

We estimate the effects of exogenous innovations to the balance sheet of the ECB since the start of the financial crisis within a structural VAR framework. An expansionary balance sheet shock stimulates bank lending, stabilizes financial markets, and has a positive impact on economic activity and prices. The effects on bank lending and output turn out to be smaller in the member countries that have been more affected by the financial crisis, in particular those countries where the banking system is less well-capitalized