An assessment of existing models for individualized breast cancer risk estimation in a screening program in Spain

Background: The aim of this study was to evaluate the calibration and discriminatory power of three predictive models of breast cancer risk. Methods: We included 13,760 women who were first-time participants in the Sabadell-Cerdanyola Breast Cancer Screening Program, in Catalonia, Spain. Projections of risk were obtained at three and five years for invasive cancer using the Gail, Chen and Barlow models. Incidence and mortality data were obtained from the Catalan registries. The calibration and discrimination of the models were assessed using the Hosmer-Lemeshow C statistic, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and the Harrell’s C statistic. Results: The Gail and Chen models showed good calibration while the Barlow model overestimated the number of cases: the ratio between estimated and observed values at 5 years ranged from 0.86 to 1.55 for the first two models and from 1.82 to 3.44 for the Barlow model. The 5-year projection for the Chen and Barlow models had the highest discrimination, with an AUC around 0.58. The Harrell’s C statistic showed very similar values in the 5-year projection for each of the models. Although they passed the calibration test, the Gail and Chen models overestimated the number of cases in some breast density categories. Conclusions: These models cannot be used as a measure of individual risk in early detection programs to customize screening strategies. The inclusion of longitudinal measures of breast density or other risk factors in joint models of survival and longitudinal data may be a step towards personalized early detection of BC.This study was funded by grant PS09/01340 and The Spanish Network on Chronic Diseases REDISSEC (RD12/0001/0007) from the Health Research Fund (Fondo de Investigación Sanitaria) of the Spanish Ministry of Health

Lump-Sum Bonus Satisfaction: Testing the Construct Validity of a New Pay Satisfaction Dimension

There are both practical and theoretical reasons to measure lump-sum bonus satisfaction. The practical need for such a measure stems from its increased use as a component in modern compensation practices. Based on the means of administering and allocating lump-sum bonuses, a theoretical case can be built suggesting that lump-sum bonus satisfaction constitutes a separate component of pay satisfaction fitting into the Pay Satisfaction Questionaire\u27s (PSQ) theoretical framework. We develop 4 questions that complement the PSQ, and use a series of techniques to test the convergent and discriminant validity of the measure. Empirical evidence shows that bonus-related items are more related to the lump-sum bonus satisfaction measure than other PSQ dimensions. We also demonstrate that the dimension of lump-sum bonus satisfaction has a substantive relationship with attitudinal variables beyond that provided by pay level variables and the PSQ. The development of this measure should foster greater accuracy when assessing pay satisfaction levels and the effects of lump-sum bonus pay policies

Association of maternal serum concentrations of 2,2', 4,4'5,5'-hexachlorobiphenyl (CB-153) and 1,1-dichloro-2,2-bis (p-chlorophenyl)-ethylene (p,p'-DDE) levels with birth weight, gestational age and preterm births in Inuit and European populations

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Epidemiological studies on the association between maternal exposure to persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and fetal growth alteration report inconsistent findings which weights in favor of additional studies.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Blood samples were collected from interviewed pregnant women in Greenland (572), Kharkiv (611) and Warsaw (258) and were analyzed for CB-153 and p,p'-DDE by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. Data on birth weight, gestational age and preterm birth were obtained for 1322 singleton live births. We examined the association between natural log-transformed serum POPs concentration and birth weight and gestational age using multiple linear regression and the association with prematurity using logistic regression controlling for potential confounding factors.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The median serum concentrations of CB-153 and p,p'-DDE were for Inuit mothers 105.6 and 298.9, for Kharkiv mothers 27.0 and 645.4 and for Warsaw mothers 10.7 and 365.2 ng/g lipids, respectively. Increase in CB-153 concentration by one unit on the log scale in Inuit mothers serum was associated with significant decrease in infant birth weight of -59 g and gestational age by -0.2 week. Decreases observed in the cohorts in Kharkiv (-10 g and -0.1 week) and in Warsaw (-49 g and -0.2 week) were not statistically significant. Increase in p,p'-DDE concentration by one unit on the log scale was associated with a statistically significant decrease in infant birth weight of -39.4 g and -104.3 g and shortening of gestational age of -0.2 week and -0.6 week in the Inuit and Warsaw cohorts, respectively. In the Kharkiv cohort decrease in birth weight (-30.5 g) was not significant, however a shortening of gestational age of -0.2 week per increase in p,p'-DDE concentration by one unit on the log scale was of the borderline significance. There was no significant association between CB-153 and p,p'-DDE concentrations and risk of preterm birth however, in all cohorts the odds ratio was above 1.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p><it>In utero </it>exposure to POPs may reduce birth weight and gestational age of newborns however, new insights as to why results vary across studies were not apparent.</p

Analysis of the Prevention of Mother-to-Child Transmission (PMTCT) Service utilization in Ethiopia: 2006-2010

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Introduction</p> <p>Although progressive improvements have been made in the coverage and quality of prevention of HIV/AIDS mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) services in Ethiopia, the national coverage remained persistently low. Analysis of the cascaded PMTCT services can reveal the advancements made and the biggest hurdles faced during implementation.</p> <p>Objective</p> <p>To examine the progresses and unaddressed needs in access and utilization of PMTCT services in Ethiopia from 2006 to 2010 thereby developing best-fit regression models to predict the values of key PMTCT indicators at critical future points.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Five-year national level PMTCT data were analyzed in a cascaded manner. Five levels of analysis were used for ten major PMTCT indicators. These included description of progress made, assessment of unaddressed needs, developing best-fit models, prediction for future points and estimation using constant prevalence. Findings were presented using numerical and graphic summaries.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Based on the current trend, Ethiopia could achieve universal ANC coverage by 2015. The prevalence of HIV at PMTCT sites has shown a four-fold decrease during the five-year period. This study has found that only 53% of known HIV-positive mothers and 48% of known HIV-exposed infants have received ARV prophylaxis. Based on assumption of constant HIV prevalence, the estimated ARV coverage was found to be 11.6% for HIV positive mothers and 8.4% for their babies.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>There has been a remarkable improvement in the potential coverage of PMTCT services due to rapid increase in the number of PMTCT service outlets. However, the actual coverage remained low. Integration of PMTCT services with grassroots level health systems could unravel the problem.</p

The association of mammographic density with ductal carcinoma in situ of the breast: the Multiethnic Cohort

INTRODUCTION: It is well established that women with high mammographic density are at greater risk for breast cancer than are women with low breast density. However, little research has been done on mammographic density and ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) of the breast, which is thought to be a precursor lesion to some invasive breast cancers. METHOD: We conducted a nested case-control study within the Multiethnic Cohort, and compared the mammographic densities of 482 patients with invasive breast cancer and 119 with breast DCIS cases versus those of 667 cancer-free control subjects. A reader blinded to disease status performed computer-assisted density assessment. For women with more than one mammogram, mean density values were computed. Polytomous logistic regression models were used to compute adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for two measurements of mammographic density: percentage density and dense area. RESULTS: Mammographic density was associated with invasive breast cancer and breast DCIS. For the highest category of percentage breast density (≥50%) as compared with the lowest (<10%), the OR was 3.58 (95% CI 2.26–5.66) for invasive breast cancer and 2.86 (1.38–5.94) for breast DCIS. Similarly, for the highest category of dense area (≥45 cm(2)) as compared with the lowest (<15 cm(2)), the OR was 2.92 (95% CI 2.01–4.25) for invasive breast cancer and 2.59 (1.39–4.82) for breast DCIS. Trend tests were significant for invasive breast cancer (P for trend < 0.0001) and breast DCIS (P for trend < 0.001) for both percentage density and dense area. CONCLUSION: The similar strength of association for mammographic density with breast DCIS and invasive breast cancer supports the hypothesis that both diseases may have a common etiology

Effects of backpacking holidays in Australia on alcohol, tobacco and drug use of UK residents

BACKGROUND: Whilst alcohol and drug use among young people is known to escalate during short holidays and working breaks in international nightlife resorts, little empirical data are available on the impact of longer backpacking holidays on substance use. Here we examine changes in alcohol, tobacco and drug use when UK residents go backpacking in Australia. METHODS: Matched information on alcohol and drug use in Australia and the UK was collected through a cross sectional cohort study of 1008 UK nationals aged 18–35 years, holidaying in Sydney or Cairns, Australia, during 2005. RESULTS: The use of alcohol and other drugs by UK backpackers visiting Australia was common with use of illicit drugs being substantially higher than in peers of the same age in their home country. Individuals showed a significant increase in frequency of alcohol consumption in Australia compared to their behaviour in the UK with the proportion drinking five or more times per week rising from 20.7% (UK) to 40.3% (Australia). Relatively few individuals were recruited into drug use in Australia (3.0%, cannabis; 2.7% ecstasy; 0.7%, methamphetamine). However, over half of the sample (55.0%) used at least one illicit drug when backpacking. Risk factors for illicit drug use while backpacking were being regular club goers, being male, Sydney based, travelling without a partner or spouse, having been in Australia more than four weeks, Australia being the only destination on their vacation and drinking or smoking five or more days a week. CONCLUSION: As countries actively seek to attract more international backpacker tourists, interventions must be developed that target this population's risk behaviours. Developing messages on drunkenness and other drug use specifically for backpackers could help minimise their health risks directly (e.g. adverse drug reactions) and indirectly (e.g. accidents and violence) as well as negative impacts on the host country