The return trip effect: Why the return trip often seems to take less time

Three studies confirm the existence of the return trip effect: The return trip often seems shorter than the initial trip, even though the distance traveled and the actual time spent traveling are identical. A pretest shows that people indeed experience a return trip effect regularly, and the effect was found on a bus trip (Study 1), a bicycle trip (Study 2), and when participants watched a video of someone else traveling (Study 3). The return trip effect also existed when another, equidistant route was taken on the return trip, showing that it is not familiarity with the route that causes this effect. Rather, it seems that a violation of expectations causes this effect

‘Sub-Prime’ Water, Low-Security Entitlements and Policy Challenges in Over-Allocated River Basins: the Case of the Murray–Darling Basin

Environmental policy is often implemented using market instruments. In some cases, including carbon taxing, the links between financial products and the environmental objectives, are transparent. In other cases, including water markets, the links are less transparent. In Australia’s Murray–Darling Basin (MDB), financial water products are known as ‘entitlements’, and are similar to traditional financial products, such as shares. The Australian water market includes ‘Low Security’ entitlements, which are similar to ‘sub-prime’ mortgage bonds because they are unlikely to yield an amount equal to their financial worth. Nearly half the water purchased under the Murray–Darling Basin Plan for environmental purposes is ‘Low Security’. We suggest that the current portfolio of water held by the Australian Government for environmental purposes reflects the mortgage market in the lead-up to the global financial crisis. Banks assumed that the future value of the mortgage market would reflect past trends. Similarly, it is assumed that the future value of water products will reflect past trends, without considering climate change. Historic records of allocations to ‘Low Security’ entitlements in the MDB suggest that, in the context of climate change, the Basin Plan water portfolio may fall short of the target annual average yield of 2075 GL by 511 GL. We recommend adopting finance sector methods including ‘hedging’ ‘Low Security’ entitlements by purchasing an additional 322–2755 GL of ‘Low Security’, or 160–511 GL of ‘High Security’ entitlements. Securing reliable environmental water is a global problem. Finance economics present opportunities for increasing the reliability of environmental flows

Acquisition of Human-Type Receptor Binding Specificity by New H5N1 Influenza Virus Sublineages during Their Emergence in Birds in Egypt

Highly pathogenic avian influenza A virus subtype H5N1 is currently widespread in Asia, Europe, and Africa, with 60% mortality in humans. In particular, since 2009 Egypt has unexpectedly had the highest number of human cases of H5N1 virus infection, with more than 50% of the cases worldwide, but the basis for this high incidence has not been elucidated. A change in receptor binding affinity of the viral hemagglutinin (HA) from α2,3- to α2,6-linked sialic acid (SA) is thought to be necessary for H5N1 virus to become pandemic. In this study, we conducted a phylogenetic analysis of H5N1 viruses isolated between 2006 and 2009 in Egypt. The phylogenetic results showed that recent human isolates clustered disproportionally into several new H5 sublineages suggesting that their HAs have changed their receptor specificity. Using reverse genetics, we found that these H5 sublineages have acquired an enhanced binding affinity for α2,6 SA in combination with residual affinity for α2,3 SA, and identified the amino acid mutations that produced this new receptor specificity. Recombinant H5N1 viruses with a single mutation at HA residue 192 or a double mutation at HA residues 129 and 151 had increased attachment to and infectivity in the human lower respiratory tract but not in the larynx. These findings correlated with enhanced virulence of the mutant viruses in mice. Interestingly, these H5 viruses, with increased affinity to α2,6 SA, emerged during viral diversification in bird populations and subsequently spread to humans. Our findings suggested that emergence of new H5 sublineages with α2,6 SA specificity caused a subsequent increase in human H5N1 influenza virus infections in Egypt, and provided data for understanding the virus's pandemic potential

Cost-effectiveness of a cardiac output-guided haemodynamic therapy algorithm in high-risk patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery.

BACKGROUND: The use of cardiac output monitoring to guide intra-venous fluid and inotropic therapies may improve peri-operative outcomes, but uncertainty exists regarding clinical effectiveness and robust cost-effectiveness evidence is lacking. The objective of the study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of peri-operative cardiac output-guided haemodynamic therapy versus usual care in high-risk patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery. METHODS: The study undertook a cost-effectiveness analysis using data from a multi-centre randomised trial that recruited patients from 17 hospitals in the United Kingdom. The trial compared cardiac output-guided, haemodynamic therapy algorithm for intra-venous fluid and inotrope (dopexamine) infusion during and 6 h following surgery, with usual care. Resource use and outcome data on 734 high-risk trial patients aged over 50 years undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery were used to report cost-effectiveness at 6 months and to project lifetime cost-effectiveness. The cost-effectiveness analysis used information on health-related quality of life (QoL) at randomisation, 30 days, and 6 months combined with information on vital status to report quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Each QALY was valued using the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) recommended threshold of willingness to pay (£20,000 per QALY) in conjunction with the costs of each group to report the incremental net monetary benefits (INB) of the treatment algorithm versus usual care. RESULTS: The mean [SD] quality of life at 30 days and 6 months was similar between the treatment groups (at 6 months, intervention group 0.73 [0.28] versus usual care group 0.71 [0.30]; mean gain 0.03 [95 % confidence interval (CI) -0.01 to 0.08]). At 6 months, survival, mean QALYs and mean healthcare costs (intervention group £8574 versus usual care group £8974) were also similar. At the cost-effectiveness threshold of £20,000 per QALY gained, the incremental net benefit of haemodynamic therapy over the patients' lifetime was positive (£4168 [95 % CI -£3063 to £11,398]). This corresponds to an 87 % probability that this intervention is cost-effective. CONCLUSIONS: Cardiac output-guided haemodynamic therapy algorithm was associated with an average cost reduction and improvement in QALY and is likely to be cost-effective. Further research is needed to confirm the clinical and cost-effectiveness of this treatment. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN04386758

Prophylactic use of levofloxacin during medicinal leech therapy

Background: Medicinal leech therapy is effective in establishing venous outflow in congested flaps and replants. However, its use is also associated with infections, especially from Aeromonas species. To prevent this nosocomial infection, levofloxacin has been established as prophylaxis during leech therapy in our hospital. Objectives: To study the implementation rate of a guideline, to study the effect of levofloxacin on possible Aeromonas infections, and to evaluate the financial impact of this preventive measure. Setting: A retrospective analysis on all patients treated with Hirudo medicinalis between July 2007 and March 2011 was performed at the Ghent University Hospital, Belgium. Method: A list of patients treated with leeches was retrieved from the pharmacy database. Patient characteristics, date of start and stop of leech therapy were collected. Data on routine diagnostic cultures during leech therapy, date and type of clinical sample, while cultivated micro-organism with antibiotic susceptibility were obtained from the laboratory database. Main outcome measure: percentage implementation rate of a guideline, presence of Aeromonas infections, financial impact of levofloxacin prophylaxis. Results: Fifty-one patients were treated with leeches. Forty-six (90.2 %) patients were treated according the guideline. Fourteen out of 51 patients (27.5 %) were suspected for postoperative wound infections. From them, 60 clinical samples were sent for microbiological analysis. These included exudates (26.7 %), peroperative samples (5.0 %), puncture fluid (1.7 %), blood cultures (3.3 %) or smears from burns (63.3 %). No Aeromonas species were cultivated. Comparison between period before and after implementation of levofloxacin prophylaxis revealed that levofloxacin prevents colonization or infection with Aeromonas species in relation to leech therapy. The direct cost for levofloxacin prophylaxis in the current study was 2,570 euro. Based on data obtained in a previous study, we presume that a minimum cost-saving of 20,500 euro was realised during the current study period by implementation of antimicrobial prophylaxis. Conclusions: This study demonstrates successful implementation of a guideline for levofloxacin prophylaxis during leech therapy. Following its introduction, no Aeromonas species related to the use of leeches were isolated as compared to 8.5 % in the baseline period