Intercomparison of the northern hemisphere winter mid-latitude atmospheric variability of the IPCC models

We compare, for the overlapping time frame 1962-2000, the estimate of the northern hemisphere (NH) mid-latitude winter atmospheric variability within the XX century simulations of 17 global climate models (GCMs) included in the IPCC-4AR with the NCEP and ECMWF reanalyses. We compute the Hayashi spectra of the 500hPa geopotential height fields and introduce an integral measure of the variability observed in the NH on different spectral sub-domains. Only two high-resolution GCMs have a good agreement with reanalyses. Large biases, in most cases larger than 20%, are found between the wave climatologies of most GCMs and the reanalyses, with a relative span of around 50%. The travelling baroclinic waves are usually overestimated, while the planetary waves are usually underestimated, in agreement with previous studies performed on global weather forecasting models. When comparing the results of various versions of similar GCMs, it is clear that in some cases the vertical resolution of the atmosphere and, somewhat unexpectedly, of the adopted ocean model seem to be critical in determining the agreement with the reanalyses. The GCMs ensemble is biased with respect to the reanalyses but is comparable to the best 5 GCMs. This study suggests serious caveats with respect to the ability of most of the presently available GCMs in representing the statistics of the global scale atmospheric dynamics of the present climate and, a fortiori, in the perspective of modelling climate change.Comment: 39 pages, 8 figures, 2 table

Accuracy of telepsychiatric assessment of new routine outpatient referrals

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Studies on the feasibility of telepsychiatry tend to concentrate only on a subset of clinical parameters. In contrast, this study utilises data from a comprehensive assessment. The main objective of this study is to compare the accuracy of findings from telepsychiatry with those from face to face interviews.</p> <p>Method</p> <p>This is a primary, cross-sectional, single-cluster, balanced crossover, blind study involving new routine psychiatric referrals. Thirty-seven out of forty cases fulfilling the selection criteria went through a complete set of independent face to face and video assessments by the researchers who were blind to each other's findings.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The accuracy ratio of the pooled results for DSM-IV diagnoses, risk assessment, non-drug and drug interventions were all above 0.76, and the combined overall accuracy ratio was 0.81. There were substantial intermethod agreements for Cohen's kappa on all the major components of evaluation except on the Risk Assessment Scale where there was only weak agreement.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Telepsychiatric assessment is a dependable method of assessment with a high degree of accuracy and substantial overall intermethod agreement when compared with standard face to face interview for new routine outpatient psychiatric referrals.</p

Euro-Atlantic weather regimes in the PRIMAVERA coupled climate simulations: impact of resolution and mean state biases on model performance

Recently, much attention has been devoted to better understand the internal modes of variability of the climate system. This is particularly important in mid-latitude regions like the North-Atlantic, which is characterized by a large natural variability and is intrinsically difficult to predict. A suitable framework for studying the modes of variability of the atmospheric circulation is to look for recurrent patterns, commonly referred to as Weather Regimes. Each regime is characterized by a specific large-scale atmospheric circulation pattern, thus influencing regional weather and extremes over Europe. The focus of the present paper is the study of the Euro-Atlantic wintertime Weather Regimes in the climate models participating to the PRIMAVERA project. We analyse here the set of coupled historical simulations (hist-1950), which have been performed both at standard and increased resolution, following the HighresMIP protocol. The models’ performance in reproducing the observed Weather Regimes is assessed in terms of different metrics, focussing on systematic biases and on the impact of resolution. We also analyse the connection of the Weather Regimes with the Jet Stream latitude and blocking frequency over the North-Atlantic sector. We find that—for most models—the regime patterns are better represented in the higher resolution version, for all regimes but the NAO-. On the other side, no clear impact of resolution is seen on the regime frequency of occurrence and persistence. Also, for most models, the regimes tend to be more tightly clustered in the increased resolution simulations, more closely resembling the observed ones. However, the horizontal resolution is not the only factor determining the model performance, and we find some evidence that biases in the SSTs and mean geopotential field might also play a role

The effect of Doppler correction on measures of storm track intensity

In climate research, the intensity of a storm track is often measured by the band pass filtered eddy kinetic energy, geopotential variance or related variables. The interpretation of such fields disregards the influence the advection speed might have on these measures. In this paper the need for a Doppler corrected storm track measure is discussed. A Doppler corrected measure is defined and applied to 10 years of ECMWF reanalysis data, correcting the storm track measure for spatial and temporal variability of the advection speed. The storm track intensity is also calculated correcting only for the temporal variability of the advection speed. It is also related to fluctuations of the NAO teleconnection pattern. The Doppler correction suggests that (1) maximum and minimum baroclinic activity is found somewhat downstream of the locations indicated by non-corrected measures, (2) the storm track activity estimated by conventional measures is much too low in the areas of the eastern ends of the storm tracks, (3) the monthly mean time series of the strength of a storm track, as estimated by conventional measures, is strongly influenced by the variability of the advection speed at times, (4) the strength of the storm track seems to be less strongly connected with teleconnection patterns such as NAO or with the background mean flow speed than usually thought on the basis of conventional Eulerian statistics