48 research outputs found
Intercomparison of the northern hemisphere winter mid-latitude atmospheric variability of the IPCC models
We compare, for the overlapping time frame 1962-2000, the estimate of the
northern hemisphere (NH) mid-latitude winter atmospheric variability within the
XX century simulations of 17 global climate models (GCMs) included in the
IPCC-4AR with the NCEP and ECMWF reanalyses. We compute the Hayashi spectra of
the 500hPa geopotential height fields and introduce an integral measure of the
variability observed in the NH on different spectral sub-domains. Only two
high-resolution GCMs have a good agreement with reanalyses. Large biases, in
most cases larger than 20%, are found between the wave climatologies of most
GCMs and the reanalyses, with a relative span of around 50%. The travelling
baroclinic waves are usually overestimated, while the planetary waves are
usually underestimated, in agreement with previous studies performed on global
weather forecasting models. When comparing the results of various versions of
similar GCMs, it is clear that in some cases the vertical resolution of the
atmosphere and, somewhat unexpectedly, of the adopted ocean model seem to be
critical in determining the agreement with the reanalyses. The GCMs ensemble is
biased with respect to the reanalyses but is comparable to the best 5 GCMs.
This study suggests serious caveats with respect to the ability of most of the
presently available GCMs in representing the statistics of the global scale
atmospheric dynamics of the present climate and, a fortiori, in the perspective
of modelling climate change.Comment: 39 pages, 8 figures, 2 table
Accuracy of telepsychiatric assessment of new routine outpatient referrals
<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Studies on the feasibility of telepsychiatry tend to concentrate only on a subset of clinical parameters. In contrast, this study utilises data from a comprehensive assessment. The main objective of this study is to compare the accuracy of findings from telepsychiatry with those from face to face interviews.</p> <p>Method</p> <p>This is a primary, cross-sectional, single-cluster, balanced crossover, blind study involving new routine psychiatric referrals. Thirty-seven out of forty cases fulfilling the selection criteria went through a complete set of independent face to face and video assessments by the researchers who were blind to each other's findings.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The accuracy ratio of the pooled results for DSM-IV diagnoses, risk assessment, non-drug and drug interventions were all above 0.76, and the combined overall accuracy ratio was 0.81. There were substantial intermethod agreements for Cohen's kappa on all the major components of evaluation except on the Risk Assessment Scale where there was only weak agreement.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Telepsychiatric assessment is a dependable method of assessment with a high degree of accuracy and substantial overall intermethod agreement when compared with standard face to face interview for new routine outpatient psychiatric referrals.</p
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Euro-Atlantic weather regimes in the PRIMAVERA coupled climate simulations: impact of resolution and mean state biases on model performance
Recently, much attention has been devoted to better understand the internal modes of variability of the climate system. This is particularly important in mid-latitude regions like the North-Atlantic, which is characterized by a large natural variability and is intrinsically difficult to predict. A suitable framework for studying the modes of variability of the atmospheric circulation is to look for recurrent patterns, commonly referred to as Weather Regimes. Each regime is characterized by a specific large-scale atmospheric circulation pattern, thus influencing regional weather and extremes over Europe. The focus of the present paper is the study of the Euro-Atlantic wintertime Weather Regimes in the climate models participating to the PRIMAVERA project. We analyse here the set of coupled historical simulations (hist-1950), which have been performed both at standard and increased resolution, following the HighresMIP protocol. The models’ performance in reproducing the observed Weather Regimes is assessed in terms of different metrics, focussing on systematic biases and on the impact of resolution. We also analyse the connection of the Weather Regimes with the Jet Stream latitude and blocking frequency over the North-Atlantic sector. We find that—for most models—the regime patterns are better represented in the higher resolution version, for all regimes but the NAO-. On the other side, no clear impact of resolution is seen on the regime frequency of occurrence and persistence. Also, for most models, the regimes tend to be more tightly clustered in the increased resolution simulations, more closely resembling the observed ones. However, the horizontal resolution is not the only factor determining the model performance, and we find some evidence that biases in the SSTs and mean geopotential field might also play a role
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The variable link between PNA and NAO in observations and in multi-century CGCM simulations
The link between the Pacific/North American pattern (PNA) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is investigated in reanalysis data (NCEP, ERA40) and multi-century CGCM runs for present day climate using three versions of the ECHAM model. PNA and NAO patterns and indices are determined via rotated principal component analysis on monthly mean 500 hPa geopotential height fields using the varimax criteria. On average, the multi-century CGCM simulations show a significant anti-correlation between PNA and NAO. Further, multi-decadal periods with significantly enhanced (high anti-correlation, active phase) or weakened (low correlations, inactive phase) coupling are found in all CGCMs. In the simulated active phases, the storm track activity near Newfoundland has a stronger link with the PNA variability than during the inactive phases. On average, the reanalysis datasets show no significant anti-correlation between PNA and NAO indices, but during the sub-period 1973–1994 a significant anti-correlation is detected, suggesting that the present climate could correspond to an inactive period as detected in the CGCMs. An analysis of possible physical mechanisms suggests that the link between the patterns is established by the baroclinic waves forming the North Atlantic storm track. The geopotential height anomalies associated with negative PNA phases induce an increased advection of warm and moist air from the Gulf of Mexico and cold air from Canada. Both types of advection contribute to increase baroclinicity over eastern North America and also to increase the low level latent heat content of the warm air masses. Thus, growth conditions for eddies at the entrance of the North Atlantic storm track are enhanced. Considering the average temporal development during winter for the CGCM, results show an enhanced Newfoundland storm track maximum in the early winter for negative PNA, followed by a downstream enhancement of the Atlantic storm track in the subsequent months. In active (passive) phases, this seasonal development is enhanced (suppressed). As the storm track over the central and eastern Atlantic is closely related to the NAO variability, this development can be explained by the shift of the NAO index to more positive values
The Influences of Orography on Large-scale Atmospheric Flow Simulated by a General Circulation Model
Contextualizing the State Mode of Production in the United States: Race, Space, and Civil Rights
The effect of Doppler correction on measures of storm track intensity
In climate research, the intensity of a storm track is often measured by the band pass filtered eddy kinetic energy, geopotential variance or related variables. The interpretation of such fields disregards the influence the advection speed might have on these measures. In this paper the need for a Doppler corrected storm track measure is discussed. A Doppler corrected measure is defined and applied to 10 years of ECMWF reanalysis data, correcting the storm track measure for spatial and temporal variability of the advection speed. The storm track intensity is also calculated correcting only for the temporal variability of the advection speed. It is also related to fluctuations of the NAO teleconnection pattern. The Doppler correction suggests that (1) maximum and minimum baroclinic activity is found somewhat downstream of the locations indicated by non-corrected measures, (2) the storm track activity estimated by conventional measures is much too low in the areas of the eastern ends of the storm tracks, (3) the monthly mean time series of the strength of a storm track, as estimated by conventional measures, is strongly influenced by the variability of the advection speed at times, (4) the strength of the storm track seems to be less strongly connected with teleconnection patterns such as NAO or with the background mean flow speed than usually thought on the basis of conventional Eulerian statistics