Data-driven models to predict the elimination of sleeping sickness in former Equateur province of DRC.

Approaching disease elimination, it is crucial to be able to assess progress towards key objectives using quantitative tools. For Gambian human African trypanosomiasis (HAT), the ultimate goal is to stop transmission by 2030, while intermediary targets include elimination as a public health problem - defined as <1 new case per 10,000 inhabitants in 90% of foci, and <2000 reported cases by 2020. Using two independent mathematical models, this study assessed the achievability of these goals in the former Equateur province of the Democratic Republic of Congo, which historically had endemic levels of disease. The two deterministic models used different assumptions on disease progression, risk of infection and non-participation in screening, reflecting biological uncertainty. To validate the models a censor-fit-uncensor procedure was used to fit to health-zone level data from 2000 to 2012; initially the last six years were censored, then three and the final step utilised all data. The different model projections were used to evaluate the expected transmission and reporting for each health zone within each province under six intervention strategies using currently available tools. In 2012 there were 197 reported HAT cases in former Equateur reduced from 6828 in 2000, however this reflects lower active testing for HAT (1.3% of the population compared to 7.2%). Modelling results indicate that there are likely to be <300 reported cases in former Equateur in 2020 if screening continues at the mean level for 2000-2012 (6.2%), and <120 cases if vector control is introduced. Some health zones may fail to achieve <1 new case per 10,000 by 2020 without vector control, although most appear on track for this target using medical interventions alone. The full elimination goal will be harder to reach; between 39 and 54% of health zones analysed may have to improve their current medical-only strategy to stop transmission completely by 2030

External tagging does not affect the feeding behavior of a coral reef fish, Chaetodon vagabundus (Pisces: Chaetodontidae)

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2009. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Environmental Biology of Fishes 86 (2009): 447-450, doi:10.1007/s10641-009-9545-9.Increasingly, the ability to recognize individual fishes is important for studies of population dynamics, ecology, and behavior. Although a variety of methods exist, external tags remain one of the most widely applied because they are both effective and cost efficient. However, a key assumption is that neither the tagging procedure nor the presence of a tag negatively affects the individual. While this has been demonstrated for relatively coarse metrics such as growth and survival, few studies have examined the impact of tags and tagging on more subtle aspects of behavior. We tagged adult vagabond butterflyfish (Chaetodon vagabundus) occupying a 30-ha insular reef in Kimbe Bay, Papua New Guinea, using a commonly-utilized t-bar anchor tag. We quantified and compared feeding behavior (bite rate), which is sensitive to stress, of tagged and untagged individuals over four separate sampling periods spanning four months post-tagging. Bite rates did not differ between tagged and untagged individuals at each sampling period and, combined with additional anecdotal observations of normal pairing behavior and successful reproduction, suggest that tagging did not adversely affect individuals.The authors gratefully acknowledge funding from the Fulbright Program, National Science Foundation and the Australian Research Council

ALC: automated reduction of rule-based models

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Combinatorial complexity is a challenging problem for the modeling of cellular signal transduction since the association of a few proteins can give rise to an enormous amount of feasible protein complexes. The layer-based approach is an approximative, but accurate method for the mathematical modeling of signaling systems with inherent combinatorial complexity. The number of variables in the simulation equations is highly reduced and the resulting dynamic models show a pronounced modularity. Layer-based modeling allows for the modeling of systems not accessible previously.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>ALC (Automated Layer Construction) is a computer program that highly simplifies the building of reduced modular models, according to the layer-based approach. The model is defined using a simple but powerful rule-based syntax that supports the concepts of modularity and macrostates. ALC performs consistency checks on the model definition and provides the model output in different formats (C MEX, MATLAB, <it>Mathematica </it>and SBML) as ready-to-run simulation files. ALC also provides additional documentation files that simplify the publication or presentation of the models. The tool can be used offline or via a form on the ALC website.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>ALC allows for a simple rule-based generation of layer-based reduced models. The model files are given in different formats as ready-to-run simulation files.</p

Identifying models of delivery, care domains and quality indicators relevant to palliative day services: a scoping review protoco

Abstract Background With an ageing population and increasing numbers of people with life-limiting illness, there is a growing demand for palliative day services. There is a need to measure and demonstrate the quality of these services, but there is currently little agreement on which aspects of care should be used to do this. The aim of the scoping review will be to map the extent, range and nature of the evidence around models of delivery, care domains and existing quality indicators used to evaluate palliative day services. Methods Electronic databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, PsycINFO, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials) will be searched for evidence using consensus development methods; randomised or quasi-randomised controlled trials; mixed methods; and prospective, longitudinal or retrospective case-control studies to develop or test quality indicators for evaluating palliative care within non-residential settings, including day hospices and community or primary care settings. At least two researchers will independently conduct all searches, study selection and data abstraction procedures. Meta-analyses and statistical methods of synthesis are not planned as part of the review. Results will be reported using numerical counts, including number of indicators in each care domain and by using qualitative approach to describe important indicator characteristics. A conceptual model will also be developed to summarise the impact of different aspects of quality in a palliative day service context. Methodological quality relating to indicator development will be assessed using the Appraisal of Indicators through Research and Evaluation (AIRE) tool. Overall strength of evidence will be assessed using the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) system. Final decisions on quality assessment will be made via consensus between review authors. Discussion Identifying, developing and implementing evidence-based quality indicators is critical to the evaluation and continued improvement of palliative care. Review findings will be used to support clinicians and policymakers make decisions on which quality indicators are most appropriate for evaluating day services at the patient and service level, and to identify areas for further research

Integration of priority population, health and nutrition interventions into health systems: systematic review

Objective of the study was to assess the effects of strategies to integrate targeted priority population, health and nutrition interventions into health systems on patient health outcomes and health system effectiveness and thus to compare integrated and non-integrated health programmes. Systematic review using Cochrane methodology of analysing randomised trials, controlled before-and-after and interrupted time series studies. We defined specific strategies to search PubMed, CENTRAL and the Cochrane Effective Practice and Organisation of Care Group register, considered studies published from January 1998 until September 2008, and tracked references and citations. Two reviewers independently agreed on eligibility, with an additional arbiter as needed, and extracted information on outcomes: primary (improved health, financial protection, and user satisfaction) and secondary (improved population coverage, access to health services, efficiency, and quality) using standardised, pre-piloted forms. Two reviewers in the final stage of selection jointly assessed quality of all selected studies using the GRADE criteria. Of 8,274 citations identified 12 studies met inclusion criteria. Four studies compared the benefits of Integrated Management of Childhood Illnesses in Tanzania and Bangladesh, showing improved care management and higher utilisation of health facilities at no additional cost. Eight studies focused on integrated delivery of mental health and substance abuse services in the United Kingdom and United States of America. Integrated service delivery resulted in better clinical outcomes and greater reduction of substance abuse in specific sub-groups of patients, with no significant difference found overall. Quality of care, patient satisfaction, and treatment engagement were higher in integrated delivery models. Targeted priority population health interventions we identified led to improved health outcomes, quality of care, patient satisfaction and access to care. Limited evidence with inconsistent findings across varied interventions in different settings means no general conclusions can be drawn on the benefits or disadvantages of integrated service delivery

The interpretation of systematic reviews with meta-analyses: an objective or subjective process?

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Discrepancies between the conclusions of different meta-analyses (quantitative syntheses of systematic reviews) are often ascribed to methodological differences. The objective of this study was to determine the discordance in interpretations when meta-analysts are presented with identical data.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We searched the literature for all randomized clinical trials (RCT) and review articles on the efficacy of intravenous magnesium in the early post-myocardial infarction period. We organized the articles chronologically and grouped them in packages. The first package included the first RCT, and a summary of the review articles published prior to first RCT. The second package contained the second and third RCT, a meta-analysis based on the data, and a summary of all review articles published prior to the third RCT. Similar packages were created for the 5^thRCT, 10^thRCT, 20^thRCT and 23^rdRCT (all articles). We presented the packages one at a time to eight different reviewers and asked them to answer three clinical questions after each package based solely on the information provided. The clinical questions included whether 1) they believed magnesium is now proven beneficial, 2) they believed magnesium will eventually be proven to be beneficial, and 3) they would recommend its use at this time.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>There was considerable disagreement among the reviewers for each package, and for each question. The discrepancies increased when the heterogeneity of the data increased. In addition, some reviewers became more sceptical of the effectiveness of magnesium over time, and some reviewers became less sceptical.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The interpretation of the results of systematic reviews with meta-analyses includes a subjective component that can lead to discordant conclusions that are independent of the methodology used to obtain or analyse the data.</p

Neck dissection and post-operative chemotherapy with dimethyl triazeno imidazole carboxamide and cisplatin protocol are useful for oral mucosal melanoma

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Oral mucosal melanoma (OMM) is a clinically rare disease with poor prognosis. Various treatment methods have been investigated with the aim of improving the prognosis. This study aimed to analyze the data of a single institution in the management of OMM.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A total of 78 consecutive OMM patients were included in this retrospective study. The intraoral lesion was treated either by cryotherapy, surgery or both; the neck was treated by neck dissection or observation; post-operative chemotherapy with dimethyl triazeno imidazole carboxamide and cisplatin was performed in some patients. The Kaplan-Meier method was used for statistical analysis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Among the 78 patients, there were 50 males and 28 females with an average age of 53.8 years (ranging from 27 to 85 years). The most common sites of OMM were the hard palate and gingiva. The main cause of death in OMM was distant metastasis. No significant difference was found between the intraoral/cervical lesion recurrence/post-operative distant metastasis and the intraoral lesion site/biopsy method/treatment method. The metastasis rate of cervical lymph node was high in the OMM patients, even in the patients with clinically negative necks. Cervical lesion recurrence was correlated with N stage and intraoral lesion recurrence. The survival period was longer in the patients with T3 staging, clinical stage III disease, with post-operative chemotherapy and without post-operative distant metastasis when compared to those patients with T4a staging, clinical stage IV disease, without post-operative chemotherapy and with post-operative distant metastasis.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Radical surgery including wide intraoral resection and neck dissection is recommended for OMM patients. Post-operative chemotherapy may also be beneficial for both primary and recurrent OMM patients.</p