A comment on "What catch data can tell us about the status of global fisheries"

There is considerable interest in the state of the world’s natural fishery resources. The paper by Froese et al. (2012) is a recent example of applying a set of ad hoc decision rules to a time series of catch data in order to assign the world’s fisheries to categories of exploitation and hence make generalisations about their current status. They conclude that the percentage of stocks that are over-exploited is worse than previously reported in FAO (2010). The approach used by Froese et al. is based on an algorithm proposed by Froese and Kesner-Reyes (2002) which has been heavily criticised both on theoretical grounds and from simulation studies (Branch et al. 2011; Daan et al. 2011; Wilberg and Miller 2007). In their recent paper, Froese et al. (2012) produce additional analyses to support their method which assumes that maximum sustainable yield (MSY) lies in the interval (0.5Cmax, Cmax), where Cmax is the maximum observed catch in the time series. Unfortunately, these analyses do not support their contention that MSY for a particular stock is related to maximum catch in a predictable way and renders their conclusions unsaf

Simulating bottom-up effects on predator productivity and consequences for the rebuilding timeline of a depleted population

Bottom-up control within ecosystems is characterized, in part, by predator populations exhibiting growth and recruitment changes in response to variability in prey density or production. Annual prey availability can vary more than 10-fold in marine ecosystems, with prey experiencing a dramatic increase or pulse in production within some years. To assess the bottom-up effects of such pulses on predator growth, production, and fisheries management, we developed an age-specific, predator-prey simulation model (parameterized for summer flounder, Paralichthys dentatus) based on simple hypothesized mechanisms for consumption, growth, and population dynamics. Pulses in each of the three modeled prey groups (small crustaceans, forage fish, larger fish prey) generated different magnitudes of change in predator weight-at-age (w), spawning stock biomass (S), fishery yield (Y), and recruitment (R), due to ontogenetic differences in growth potential and dietary composition across predator age classes. Increases in productivity of small forage fishes generated the greatest gains in predator w, S, Y, and R, relative to pulses of the other prey groups. Median increases in R following a prey pulse were minimal (\u3c 4%) except under high fishing rates that stimulated a stronger compensatory response in the population (8-11% increase in R), demonstrating the interactive role of top-down and bottom-up effects on predator productivity. Seasonal migration patterns determined the degree of spatiotemporal overlap of predators with the spatially constrained pulses in prey production. Prey pulses reduced the median time required for depleted populations to be rebuilt by 0-5% following declines in fishing pressure. Reductions in time to recovery were highly variable due to recruitment stochasticity, but stock recovery was more sensitive to the severity of harvest control measures than to availability of the non-limiting prey. Understanding the relative magnitudes of such bottom-up processes, particularly in the presence of varied fishing pressure can aid in developing ecosystem approaches to fisheries management that account for such ecological interactions more explicitly. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

What catch data can tell us about the status of global fisheries

The only available data set on the catches of global fisheries are the official landings reported annually by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). Attempts to detect and interpret trends in these data have been criticized as being both technically and conceptually flawed. Here, we explore and refute these claims. We show explicitly that trends in catch data are not an artifact of the applied method and are consistent with trends in biomass data of fully assessed stocks. We also show that, while comprehensive stock assessments are the preferred method for evaluating single stocks, they are a biased subsample of the stocks in a given area, strongly underestimating the percentage of collapsed stocks. We concur with a recent assessment-based analysis by FAO that the increasing trends in the percentage of overexploited, depleted, and recovering stocks and the decreasing trends in underexploited and moderately exploited stocks give cause for concern. We show that these trends are much more pronounced if all available data are considered

Design of a multicentered randomized controlled trial on the clinical and cost effectiveness of schema therapy for personality disorders

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Despite international guidelines describing psychotherapy as first choice for people with personality disorders (PDs), well-designed research on the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of psychotherapy for PD is scarce. Schema therapy (ST) is a specific form of psychological treatment that proved to be effective for borderline PD. Randomized controlled studies on the effectiveness of ST for other PDs are lacking. Another not yet tested new specialized treatment is Clarification Oriented Psychotherapy (COP). The aim of this project is to perform an effectiveness study as well as an economic evaluation study (cost effectiveness as well as cost-utility) comparing ST versus COP versus treatment as usual (TAU). In this study, we focus on avoidant, dependent, obsessive-compulsive, paranoid, histrionic and narcissistic PD.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>In a multicentered randomized controlled trial, ST, and COP as an extra experimental condition, are compared to TAU. Minimal 300 patients are recruited in 12 mental health institutes throughout the Netherlands, and receive an extensive screening prior to enrolment in the study. When eligible, they are randomly assigned to one of the intervention groups. An economic evaluation and a qualitative research study on patient and therapist perspectives on ST are embedded in this trial. Outcome assessments (both for clinical effectiveness and economic evaluation) take place at 6,12,18,24 and 36 months after start of treatment. Primary outcome is recovery from PD; secondary measures include general psychopathological complaints, social functioning and quality of life. Data for the cost-effectiveness and cost-utility analyses are collected by using a retrospective cost interview. Information on patient and therapist perspectives is gathered using in-depth interviews and focus groups, and focuses on possible helpful and impeding aspects of ST.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>This trial is the first to compare ST and COP head-to-head with TAU for people with a cluster C, paranoid, histrionic and/or narcissistic PD. By combining clinical effectiveness data with an economic evaluation and with direct information from primary stakeholders, this trial offers a complete and thorough view on ST as a contribution to the improvement of treatment for this PD patient group.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>Netherlands Trial Register (NTR): <a href="http://www.trialregister.nl/trialreg/admin/rctview.asp?TC=566">NTR566</a></p

Estimating Animal Abundance in Ground Beef Batches Assayed with Molecular Markers

Estimating animal abundance in industrial scale batches of ground meat is important for mapping meat products through the manufacturing process and for effectively tracing the finished product during a food safety recall. The processing of ground beef involves a potentially large number of animals from diverse sources in a single product batch, which produces a high heterogeneity in capture probability. In order to estimate animal abundance through DNA profiling of ground beef constituents, two parameter-based statistical models were developed for incidence data. Simulations were applied to evaluate the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) of a joint likelihood function from multiple surveys, showing superiority in the presence of high capture heterogeneity with small sample sizes, or comparable estimation in the presence of low capture heterogeneity with a large sample size when compared to other existing models. Our model employs the full information on the pattern of the capture-recapture frequencies from multiple samples. We applied the proposed models to estimate animal abundance in six manufacturing beef batches, genotyped using 30 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers, from a large scale beef grinding facility. Results show that between 411∼1367 animals were present in six manufacturing beef batches. These estimates are informative as a reference for improving recall processes and tracing finished meat products back to source

The multi-peak adaptive landscape of crocodylomorph body size evolution

Background: Little is known about the long-term patterns of body size evolution in Crocodylomorpha, the > 200-million-year-old group that includes living crocodylians and their extinct relatives. Extant crocodylians are mostly large-bodied (3–7 m) predators. However, extinct crocodylomorphs exhibit a wider range of phenotypes, and many of the earliest taxa were much smaller ( Results: Crocodylomorphs reached an early peak in body size disparity during the Late Jurassic, and underwent an essentially continual decline since then. A multi-peak Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model outperforms all other evolutionary models fitted to our data (including both uniform and non-uniform), indicating that the macroevolutionary dynamics of crocodylomorph body size are better described within the concept of an adaptive landscape, with most body size variation emerging after shifts to new macroevolutionary regimes (analogous to adaptive zones). We did not find support for a consistent evolutionary trend towards larger sizes among lineages (i.e., Cope’s rule), or strong correlations of body size with climate. Instead, the intermediate to large body sizes of some crocodylomorphs are better explained by group-specific adaptations. In particular, the evolution of a more aquatic lifestyle (especially marine) correlates with increases in average body size, though not without exceptions. Conclusions: Shifts between macroevolutionary regimes provide a better explanation of crocodylomorph body size evolution on large phylogenetic and temporal scales, suggesting a central role for lineage-specific adaptations rather than climatic forcing. Shifts leading to larger body sizes occurred in most aquatic and semi-aquatic groups. This, combined with extinctions of groups occupying smaller body size regimes (particularly during the Late Cretaceous and Cenozoic), gave rise to the upward-shifted body size distribution of extant crocodylomorphs compared to their smaller-bodied terrestrial ancestors.</p

Limb proportions show developmental plasticity in response to embryo movement

Animals have evolved limb proportions adapted to different environments, but it is not yet clear to what extent these proportions are directly influenced by the environment during prenatal development. The developing skeleton experiences mechanical loading resulting from embryo movement. We tested the hypothesis that environmentally-induced changes in prenatal movement influence embryonic limb growth to alter proportions. We show that incubation temperature influences motility and limb bone growth in West African Dwarf crocodiles, producing altered limb proportions which may, influence post-hatching performance. Pharmacological immobilisation of embryonic chickens revealed that altered motility, independent of temperature, may underpin this growth regulation. Use of the chick also allowed us to merge histological, immunochemical and cell proliferation labelling studies to evaluate changes in growth plate organisation, and unbiased array profiling to identify specific cellular and transcriptional targets of embryo movement. This disclosed that movement alters limb proportions and regulates chondrocyte proliferation in only specific growth plates. This selective targeting is related to intrinsic mTOR (mechanistic target of rapamycin) pathway activity in individual growth plates. Our findings provide new insights into how environmental factors can be integrated to influence cellular activity in growing bones and ultimately gross limb morphology, to generate phenotypic variation during prenatal development