The impact of contact tracing in clustered populations

The tracing of potentially infectious contacts has become an important part of the control strategy for many infectious diseases, from early cases of novel infections to endemic sexually transmitted infections. Here, we make use of mathematical models to consider the case of partner notification for sexually transmitted infection, however these models are sufficiently simple to allow more general conclusions to be drawn. We show that, when contact network structure is considered in addition to contact tracing, standard “mass action” models are generally inadequate. To consider the impact of mutual contacts (specifically clustering) we develop an improvement to existing pairwise network models, which we use to demonstrate that ceteris paribus, clustering improves the efficacy of contact tracing for a large region of parameter space. This result is sometimes reversed, however, for the case of highly effective contact tracing. We also develop stochastic simulations for comparison, using simple re-wiring methods that allow the generation of appropriate comparator networks. In this way we contribute to the general theory of network-based interventions against infectious disease

Significance of herpesvirus immediate early gene expression in cellular immunity to cytomegalovirus infection

Interstitial pneumonia linked with reactivation of latent human cytomegalovirus due to iatrogenic immunosuppression can be a serious complication of bone marrow transplantation therapy of aplastic anaemia and acute leukaemia1. Cellular immunity plays a critical role in the immune surveillance of inapparent cytomegalovirus infections in man and the mouse1−7. The molecular basis of latency, however, and the interaction between latently or recurrently infected cells and the immune system of the host are poorfy understood. We have detected a so far unknown antigen in the mouse model. This antigen is found in infected cells in association with the expression of the herpesvirus 'immediate early' genes and is recognized by cytolytic T lymphocytes (CTL)8. We now demonstrate that an unexpectedly high proportion of the CTL precursors generated in vivo during acute murine cytomegalovirus infection are specific for cells that selectively synthesize immediate early proteins, indicating an immunodominant role of viral non-structural proteins

Evolving Clustered Random Networks

We propose a Markov chain simulation method to generate simple connected random graphs with a specified degree sequence and level of clustering. The networks generated by our algorithm are random in all other respects and can thus serve as generic models for studying the impacts of degree distributions and clustering on dynamical processes as well as null models for detecting other structural properties in empirical networks

Ocean temperature and salinity components of the Madden-Julian oscillation observed by Argo floats

New diagnostics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) cycle in ocean temperature and, for the first time, salinity are presented. The MJO composites are based on 4 years of gridded Argo float data from 2003 to 2006, and extend from the surface to 1,400 m depth in the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans. The MJO surface salinity anomalies are consistent with precipitation minus evaporation fluxes in the Indian Ocean, and with anomalous zonal advection in the Pacific. The Argo sea surface temperature and thermocline depth anomalies are consistent with previous studies using other data sets. The near-surface density changes due to salinity are comparable to, and partially offset, those due to temperature, emphasising the importance of including salinity as well as temperature changes in mixed-layer modelling of tropical intraseasonal processes. The MJO-forced equatorial Kelvin wave that propagates along the thermocline in the Pacific extends down into the deep ocean, to at least 1,400 m. Coherent, statistically significant, MJO temperature and salinity anomalies are also present in the deep Indian Ocean

Vortices enable the complex aerobatics of peregrine falcons

The peregrine falcon (Falco peregrinus) is known for its extremely high speeds during hunting dives or stoop. Here we demonstrate that the superior manoeuvrability of peregrine falcons during stoop is attributed to vortex-dominated flow promoted by their morphology, in the M-shape configuration adopted towards the end of dive. Both experiments and simulations on life-size models, derived from field observations, revealed the presence of vortices emanating from the frontal and dorsal region due to a strong spanwise flow promoted by the forward sweep of the radiale. These vortices enhance mixing for flow reattachment towards the tail. The stronger wing and tail vortices provide extra aerodynamic forces through vortex-induced lift for pitch and roll control. A vortex pair with a sense of rotation opposite to that from conventional planar wings interacts with the main wings vortex to reduce induced drag, which would otherwise decelerate the bird significantly during pull-out. These findings could help in improving aircraft performance and wing suits for human flights

Impact of therapy on quality of life, neurocognitive function and their correlates in glioblastoma multiforme: a review

The maintenance of quality of life (QoL) in patients with high-grade glioma is an important endpoint during treatment, particularly in those with glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) given its dismal prognosis despite limited advances in standard therapy. It has proven difficult to identify new therapies that extend survival in patients with recurrent GBM, so one of the primary aims of new therapies is to reduce morbidity, restore or preserve neurologic functions, and the capacity to perform daily activities. Apart from temozolomide, cytotoxic chemotherapeutic agents do not appear to significantly impact response or survival, but produce toxicity that is likely to negatively impact QoL. New biological agents, such as bevacizumab, can induce a clinically meaningful proportion of durable responses among patients with recurrent GBM with an acceptable safety profile. Emerging evidence suggests that bevacizumab produces an improvement or preservation of neurocognitive function in GBM patients, suggestive of QoL improvement, in most poor-prognosis patients who would otherwise be expected to show a sudden and rapid deterioration in QoL

A statistical approach to quantitative data validation focused on the assessment of students' perceptions about biotechnology

Student awareness levels are frequently used to evaluate the effectiveness of educational policies to promote scientific literacy. Over the last years several studies have been developed to assess students' perceptions towards science and technology, which usually rely on quantitative methods to achieve broad characterizations, and obtain quantifiable and comparable data. Although the usefulness of this information depends on its validity and reliability, validation is frequently neglected by researchers with limited background in statistics. In this context, we propose a guideline to implement a statistical approach to questionnaire validation, combining exploratory factor analysis and reliability analysis. The work focuses on the psychometric analysis of data provided by a questionnaire assessing 1196 elementary and high school students' perceptions about biotechnology. Procedural guidelines to enhance the efficiency of quantitative inquiry surveys are given, by discussing essential methodological aspects and relevant criteria to integrate theory into practice.The authors are grateful to all the participant teachers and students that contributed to gather the data presented and to Catarina L. Santos for useful comments and suggestions on the manuscript. Maria Joao Fonseca was supported by the FCT fellowship SFRH/BD/37389/2007 and this work was sponsored by a research grant (PTDC/AGR-PRO/111857/2009) from Fundacao para a Ciencia e Tecnologia (FCT, Portugal)

Contrasting environmental drivers of adult and juvenile growth in a marine fish: implications for the effects of climate change

Many marine fishes have life history strategies that involve ontogenetic changes in the use of coastal habitats. Such ontogenetic shifts may place these species at particular risk from climate change, because the successive environments they inhabit can differ in the type, frequency and severity of changes related to global warming. We used a dendrochronology approach to examine the physical and biological drivers of growth of adult and juvenile mangrove jack (Lutjanus argentimaculatus) from tropical north-western Australia. Juveniles of this species inhabit estuarine environments and adults reside on coastal reefs. The Niño-4 index, a measure of the status of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) had the highest correlation with adult growth chronologies, with La Niña years (characterised by warmer temperatures and lower salinities) having positive impacts on growth. Atmospheric and oceanographic phenomena operating at ocean-basin scales seem to be important correlates of the processes driving growth in local coastal habitats. Conversely, terrestrial factors influencing precipitation and river runoff were positively correlated with the growth of juveniles in estuaries. Our results show that the impacts of climate change on these two life history stages are likely to be different, with implications for resilience and management of populations