Can bias correction and statistical downscaling methods improve the skill of seasonal precipitation forecasts?

Statistical downscaling methods are popular post-processing tools which are widely used in many sectors to adapt the coarse-resolution biased outputs from global climate simulations to the regional-to-local scale typically required by users. They range from simple and pragmatic Bias Correction (BC) methods, which directly adjust the model outputs of interest (e.g. precipitation) according to the available local observations, to more complex Perfect Prognosis (PP) ones, which indirectly derive local predictions (e.g. precipitation) from appropriate upper-air large-scale model variables (predictors). Statistical downscaling methods have been extensively used and critically assessed in climate change applications; however, their advantages and limitations in seasonal forecasting are not well understood yet. In particular, a key problem in this context is whether they serve to improve the forecast quality/skill of raw model outputs beyond the adjustment of their systematic biases. In this paper we analyze this issue by applying two state-of-the-art BC and two PP methods to downscale precipitation from a multimodel seasonal hindcast in a challenging tropical region, the Philippines. To properly assess the potential added value beyond the reduction of model biases, we consider two validation scores which are not sensitive to changes in the mean (correlation and reliability categories). Our results show that, whereas BC methods maintain or worsen the skill of the raw model forecasts, PP methods can yield significant skill improvement (worsening) in cases for which the large-scale predictor variables considered are better (worse) predicted by the model than precipitation. For instance, PP methods are found to increase (decrease) model reliability in nearly 40% of the stations considered in boreal summer (autumn). Therefore, the choice of a convenient downscaling approach (either BC or PP) depends on the region and the season.This study was partially supported by the SPECS and EUPORIAS projects, funded by the European Commission through the Seventh Framework Programme for Research under grant agreements 308378 and 308291, respectively. JMG acknowledges partial support from the project MULTI-SDM (CGL2015-66583-R, MINECO/FEDER)

Barriers and enablers for smoking cessation amongst pregnant women: An Umbrella Review.

AIM: The aim of this study is to summarise the qualitative findings from systematic reviews to identify what pregnant women perceive as barriers and enablers to smoking cessation during pregnancy. BACKGROUND: Smoking during pregnancy is a predictor of adverse maternal and infant outcomes. Despite known health risks, less than half of pregnant smokers quit during pregnancy. METHODS: An umbrella review using the Johanna Briggs Institute methodology was conducted. A comprehensive literature review was completed in July 2017. All included papers were subject to an eligibility criterion and checked for quality by at least two reviewers. FINDINGS: A total of n=529 papers were identified and screened. Of these, only two met all inclusion and quality criteria and were included for review. More barriers than facilitators were identified from the available literature. CONCLUSION: An enabler or barrier to smoking cessation for pregnant women is not a fixed entity but dependent on the context of an individual's life. What is an enabler for one woman may be considered a barrier for another, and these are dependent on support provided by family and friends. Further research is needed to optimise ways of addressing these barriers

Seaweeds and their communities in polar regions

Polar seaweeds typically begin to grow in late winter-spring, around the time of sea-ice break up. They can grow under very low light enabling distributions to depths of ≥40 m. Moreover, they are physiologically adapted to low temperatures. Intertidal species exhibit a remarkable stress tolerance against freezing, desiccation and salinity changes. Endemism is much greater in the Antarctic compared to the Arctic species. On rocky shores of the Antarctic Peninsula and of Spitsbergen >80% of the bottom can be covered by seaweeds with standing biomass levels ≥20 kg wet wt m-2. Species richness and biomass declines, however, towards higher latitudes. Seaweeds are the dominant organisms in coastal waters and thus play important roles in benthic food webs and are likely to be of particular importance to benthic detrital food chains. Chemical defenses against herbivores are common in Antarctic, but not in Arctic seaweeds. More research is needed especially to study the effects of global climate changes