Are we heading towards a replicability crisis in energy efficiency research? A toolkit for improving the quality, transparency and replicability of energy efficiency impact evaluations

Several high-profile replication failures have called into question the reproducibility of results in medicine, neuroscience, genetics, psychology and economics (Camerer et al. 2016). A paper published in Science found that just one third of psychology studies could be replicated when the study was run for a second time (OSC 2015). To our knowledge, there have been no attempted replications of energy efficiency studies; so can we be confident that the estimated energy savings from policy initiatives like the European roll out of smart meters will be realised? Or that electric vehicles will reduce carbon emissions by predicted levels? Or is energy heading towards its own reproducibility crisis? Researchers call for the increased use of randomised control trials (RCTs) to evaluate energy efficiency policy and the introduction of protocols or guidelines for conducting experiments (Vine et al. 2014; Frederiks et al. 2016). However, no guidelines for increasing reproducibility have been proposed. Moreover, RCTs are just one method for causal analysis and RCTs cannot answer all important causal questions. This paper will outline research methods for improved impact assessment of energy efficiency policy, including RCTs, but also quasi-experiments and systematic reviews that go beyond the conclusions of single experiments. It will then present tools for increasing replicability: pre-registration of trials; pre-analysis plans; reporting standards; synthesis tools and; publication of datasets with computer code in data repositories. Based on work by our research group at the UCL Energy Institute, we recognize that not all of these tools (mostly from medical trials) provide ‘off-the-shelf’ models for energy efficiency evaluations, and so consider adaptations for energy research. Our aim is to stimulate discussion and get feedback from the research community at ECEEE so the toolkit can be developed and potentially adopted more widely

Integration of decision support systems to improve decision support performance

Decision support system (DSS) is a well-established research and development area. Traditional isolated, stand-alone DSS has been recently facing new challenges. In order to improve the performance of DSS to meet the challenges, research has been actively carried out to develop integrated decision support systems (IDSS). This paper reviews the current research efforts with regard to the development of IDSS. The focus of the paper is on the integration aspect for IDSS through multiple perspectives, and the technologies that support this integration. More than 100 papers and software systems are discussed. Current research efforts and the development status of IDSS are explained, compared and classified. In addition, future trends and challenges in integration are outlined. The paper concludes that by addressing integration, better support will be provided to decision makers, with the expectation of both better decisions and improved decision making processes

Metal-Free ALS Variants of Dimeric Human Cu,Zn-Superoxide Dismutase Have Enhanced Populations of Monomeric Species

Amino acid replacements at dozens of positions in the dimeric protein human, Cu,Zn superoxide dismutase (SOD1) can cause amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). Although it has long been hypothesized that these mutations might enhance the populations of marginally-stable aggregation-prone species responsible for cellular toxicity, there has been little quantitative evidence to support this notion. Perturbations of the folding free energy landscapes of metal-free versions of five ALS-inducing variants, A4V, L38V, G93A, L106V and S134N SOD1, were determined with a global analysis of kinetic and thermodynamic folding data for dimeric and stable monomeric versions of these variants. Utilizing this global analysis approach, the perturbations on the global stability in response to mutation can be partitioned between the monomer folding and association steps, and the effects of mutation on the populations of the folded and unfolded monomeric states can be determined. The 2- to 10-fold increase in the population of the folded monomeric state for A4V, L38V and L106V and the 80- to 480-fold increase in the population of the unfolded monomeric states for all but S134N would dramatically increase their propensity for aggregation through high-order nucleation reactions. The wild-type-like populations of these states for the metal-binding region S134N variant suggest that even wild-type SOD1 may also be prone to aggregation in the absence of metals

A systematic review of tests of empathy in medicine

Abstract Background Empathy is frequently cited as an important attribute in physicians and some groups have expressed a desire to measure empathy either at selection for medical school or during medical (or postgraduate) training. In order to do this, a reliable and valid test of empathy is required. The purpose of this systematic review is to determine the reliability and validity of existing tests for the assessment of medical empathy. Methods A systematic review of research papers relating to the reliability and validity of tests of empathy in medical students and doctors. Journal databases (Medline, EMBASE, and PsycINFO) were searched for English-language articles relating to the assessment of empathy and related constructs in applicants to medical school, medical students, and doctors. Results From 1147 citations, we identified 50 relevant papers describing 36 different instruments of empathy measurement. As some papers assessed more than one instrument, there were 59 instrument assessments. 20 of these involved only medical students, 30 involved only practising clinicians, and three involved only medical school applicants. Four assessments involved both medical students and practising clinicians, and two studies involved both medical school applicants and students. Eight instruments demonstrated evidence of reliability, internal consistency, and validity. Of these, six were self-rated measures, one was a patient-rated measure, and one was an observer-rated measure. Conclusion A number of empathy measures available have been psychometrically assessed for research use among medical students and practising medical doctors. No empathy measures were found with sufficient evidence of predictive validity for use as selection measures for medical school. However, measures with a sufficient evidential base to support their use as tools for investigating the role of empathy in medical training and clinical care are available.</p

Amyloidogenic Regions and Interaction Surfaces Overlap in Globular Proteins Related to Conformational Diseases

Protein aggregation underlies a wide range of human disorders. The polypeptides involved in these pathologies might be intrinsically unstructured or display a defined 3D-structure. Little is known about how globular proteins aggregate into toxic assemblies under physiological conditions, where they display an initially folded conformation. Protein aggregation is, however, always initiated by the establishment of anomalous protein-protein interactions. Therefore, in the present work, we have explored the extent to which protein interaction surfaces and aggregation-prone regions overlap in globular proteins associated with conformational diseases. Computational analysis of the native complexes formed by these proteins shows that aggregation-prone regions do frequently overlap with protein interfaces. The spatial coincidence of interaction sites and aggregating regions suggests that the formation of functional complexes and the aggregation of their individual subunits might compete in the cell. Accordingly, single mutations affecting complex interface or stability usually result in the formation of toxic aggregates. It is suggested that the stabilization of existing interfaces in multimeric proteins or the formation of new complexes in monomeric polypeptides might become effective strategies to prevent disease-linked aggregation of globular proteins

Potential for non-combustible nicotine products to reduce socioeconomic inequalities in smoking: a systematic review and synthesis of best available evidence

While some experts have emphasised the potential for e-cigarettes to facilitate cessation among smokers with low socioeconomic status (SES), there is limited evidence of their likely equity impact. We assessed the potential for electronic cigarettes and other non-combustible nicotine-containing products (NCNPs) to reduce inequalities in smoking by systematically reviewing evidence on their use by SES in countries at stage IV of the cigarette epidemic

Response to “Vulnerability and resistance in the United Kingdom's smart meter transition”

Sovacool et al. (2017) consider and critique the Smart Metering Implementation Programme (SMIP) in the United Kingdom. In this response we highlight a number of areas where we believe it would have been helpful for readers to see additional information. These relate to three areas: how the authors reported on the methods used in their study; how the Programme is addressing technical challenges; and how the Programme is engaging with people in vulnerable situations. We also point out areas where we see emerging challenges, such as engaging non-traditional stakeholders, and how organizations which want to use smart meter data in the public interest might encounter barriers in meeting the demands of the Smart Energy Code

Energising Health: A review of the health and care applications of smart meter data

Smart meters are being rolled out for the benefits they can bring to energy consumers and the energy system in Great Britain, but the data they produce may also be useful in health and care applications. This report examines what research, innovation and commercial activity has been conducted so far in this domain, and what the opportunities and challenges for its development could be. To do this we used a systematised review, and consulted with experts in the field. Our review of the use of smart meter data in health and care applications presents a picture of a field in the early stages of development, but with big ambitions. A small number of research projects have presented evidence of the ability to use digital energy data to recognise activities or usage patterns that could be associated with a variety of health conditions. A number of companies also integrate such data into their health monitoring service offerings alongside other technology. As yet there is no clinical trial evidence of the effectiveness of using digital energy data to improve health outcomes. Potentially recognisable health-relevant features include inactivity (such as through falls), sleep disturbance, memory problems, changes in activity patterns, low activity levels, occupancy and unhealthy living conditions. Much of the small amount of research in this area so far has been applied to Alzheimer’s disease and dementia. Other key targets are a range of mental illnesses (such as depression) and care of people who are vulnerable in some respect. Proposed applications include issuing alerts to carers when unusual activity patterns are recognised, and monitoring of things like the progress of conditions (to inform treatment needs) or of living conditions (such as use of heating or showers). We also raise the possibility of using digital energy data to inform diagnosis and public health, drawing parallels with initiatives in other areas, but there is no evidence at the moment that this will be possible or practical. We identified a number of characteristics of smart meters that may prove particularly beneficial compared to other approaches such as wearable sensors and Internet of Things devices: their near-ubiquity (by 2020), low cost, versatility and provision of historical data. While these benefits lead to high hopes in some quarters to see health applications realised, there are also significant challenges. Considering user acceptance, we do not see many objections specific to smart meters as compared to other approaches. However, assurances around privacy may be important. While Smart Energy GB research shows smart meter privacy concern is low, sharing smart meter data with public services may be more controversial. There are still advances to be made in more accurately recognising specific electrical appliances from dwelling-level data, which would increase the usefulness of smart meter-based systems in identifying activities and reduce false alarms. This could likely be improved if the sampling rate of energy data could be pushed beyond the current 10 second limit. Even if better activity recognition can be achieved, there is much more work to be done in reliably and usefully connecting observable energy use patterns with health conditions. The manner in which smart meter data is stored and shared is tightly governed by regulation. However, using this data in health contexts is likely to involve taking it out of the regulated smart meter infrastructure to share it with third parties. Given the sensitive use to which such data will be put, ensuring good data security and privacy after data has left the currently regulated system should be an important focus for regulators considering its use in health contexts. The level of failure tolerance for health critical uses is also likely to be lower than for standard energy metering applications, with potential implications for how the system is regulated. Questions will also need to be considered about where responsibility lies when systems fail (with potential health consequences)

High-Rate Spinel LiMn<inf>2</inf>O<inf>4</inf> (LMO) following Carbonate Removal and Formation of Li-Rich Interface by ALD Treatment

Recent work has identified enhanced charge-storage capacity in the spinel lithium manganese oxide (LiMn2O4; LMO) lithium-ion battery cathode upon a single atomic layer deposition (ALD) cycle composed of one chemical exposure of trimethylaluminum (TMA) and one exposure of water (H2O). Here, we report further study of the rate capability following one TMA/H2O exposure and identify enhanced rate capability versus pristine LMO. To understand this effect, we experimentally probe the surface composition of LMO with TMA/H2O treatment using X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy measurements with inert transfer. This includes a study of the LMO surface properties following TMA exposure before exposure to H2O. We identify the removal of a surface carbonate layer from LMO upon TMA exposure and the formation of a Li-rich aluminum oxide surface layer upon subsequent H2O exposure. We also observe a previously undescribed phenomenon of Li ions depleting from the LMO surface upon TMA exposure and returning upon H2O exposure. These effects are connected with the enhanced rate capability of ALD-coated LMO and are related to a range of emerging studies on carbonate surface layers in battery cathodes, as well as the use of ALD to stabilize battery interfaces