Verification of 10-Meter Wind Forecasts from NSSL-WRF in Predicting Severe Wind-Producing MCSs

Predicting convective winds associated with mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) remains a major challenge for operational severe weather forecasters. To assess the performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model run by the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL-WRF) in forecasting severe wind-producing MCSs between 2012 and 2014, a climatology of these MCSs was developed. Severe wind-producing MCSs were first manually identified by finding swaths of severe wind reports caused by MCSs through inspection of radar reflectivity structure to ensure organized convective mode. To objectively identify severe wind-producing MCSs using an object-based approach, storm reports were filtered based on nearby radar reflectivity. A variety of subsets of severe wind reports were also used. Reports were converted to spatial probabilities via Gaussian smoothing so that objects could be identified. Objects were identified using the Method for Object-based Diagnostic Evaluation (MODE) by testing various minimum intensity and area thresholds to determine which thresholds most accurately matched the manually identified severe wind-producing MCSs. Objects identified based on radar-filtered storm reports most accurately matched manually identified severe wind-producing MCSs. This allowed for development of an object-based climatology of severe wind-producing MCSs. This climatology shows a maximum of severe wind-producing MCSs near the Ohio River Valley with another relative maximum on the Georgia-Alabama border. All identified severe wind-producing MCSs occurred east of the Rocky Mountains. Severe wind-producing MCSs occurred most often in June and least often in November. Daily maximum 10 m wind forecasts for the 24 hours beginning at 12Z (i.e., f12-f36) were generated from 0000 UTC NSSL-WRF hourly maximum 10 m wind fields. The same smoothing and radar filtering (with simulated reflectivity) that was applied to storm reports was also applied to various forecast daily maximum 10 m wind thresholds between 15 kt and 60 kt. The same intensity and size thresholds were applied to both forecast and observation fields in identifying objects. Forecasts were then verified both on a grid-point-by-grid-point basis, on a grid-based basis using MODE, and on an object-matching basis using MODE. Object-matching utilizes a fuzzy logic algorithm to match forecast and observed objects. Grid-point verification yielded no useful results, with a high number of false alarms dominating any signal. Across a range of wind speed thresholds, the 10 m wind field has a critical success index of around 0.07 when using grid-based verification using MODE and around 0.15 when using MODE object-based verification. Lower wind speed thresholds over-forecast severe wind-producing MCSs and approach a probability of detection (POD) near 100\% for very low wind speed thresholds. As wind speed thresholds increase, the POD decreases sharply without much improvement in the false alarm ratio (FAR). For very high wind speed thresholds, very few events are forecast, so both POD and FAR are low. Though the lower thresholds have slightly lower CSIs than higher thresholds, the large increase in POD with a small penalty in FAR suggests that the lower thresholds may be of more utility to forecasters

Development of a National Anthropogenic Heating Database with an Extrapolation for International Cities

Given increasing utility of numerical models to examine urban impacts on meteorology and climate, there exists an urgent need for accurate representation of seasonally and diurnally varying anthropogenic heating data, an important component of the urban energy budget for cities across the world. Incorporation of anthropogenic heating data as inputs to existing climate modeling systems has direct societal implications ranging from improved prediction of energy demand to health assessment, but such data are lacking for most cities. To address this deficiency we have applied a standardized procedure to develop a national database of seasonally and diurnally varying anthropogenic heating profiles for 61 of the largest cities in the United Stated (U.S.). Recognizing the importance of spatial scale, the anthropogenic heating database developed includes the city scale and the accompanying greater metropolitan area. Our analysis reveals that a single profile function can adequately represent anthropogenic heating during summer but two profile functions are required in winter, one for warm climate cities and another for cold climate cities. On average, although anthropogenic heating is 40% larger in winter than summer, the electricity sector contribution peaks during summer and is smallest in winter. Because such data are similarly required for international cities where urban climate assessments are also ongoing, we have made a simple adjustment accounting for different international energy consumption rates relative to the U.S. to generate seasonally and diurnally varying anthropogenic heating profiles for a range of global cities. The methodological approach presented here is flexible and straightforwardly applicable to cities not modeled because of presently unavailable data. Because of the anticipated increase in global urban populations for many decades to come, characterizing this fundamental aspect of the urban environment – anthropogenic heating – is an essential element toward continued progress in urban climate assessment

A new and unusual LBV-like outburst from a Wolf–Rayet star in the outskirts of M33

MCA-1B (also called UIT003) is a luminous hot star in the western outskirts of M33, classified over 20 yr ago with a spectral type of Ofpe/WN9 and identified then as a candidate luminous blue variable (LBV). Palomar Transient Factory data reveal that this star brightened in 2010, with a light curve resembling that of the classic LBV star AF And in M31. Other Ofpe/WN9 stars have erupted as LBVs, but MCA-1B was unusual because it remained hot. It showed a WN-type spectrum throughout its eruption, whereas LBVs usually get much cooler. MCA-1B showed an almost four-fold increase in bolometric luminosity and a doubling of its radius, but its temperature stayed ≳29 kK. As it faded, it shifted to even hotter temperatures, exhibiting a WN7/WN8-type spectrum, and doubling its wind speed. MCA-1B is reminiscent of some supernova impostors, and its location resembles the isolated environment of SN 2009ip. It is most similar to HD 5980 (in the Small Magellanic Cloud) and GR 290 (also in M33). Whereas these two LBVs exhibited B-type spectra in eruption, MCA-1B is the first clear case where a Wolf–Rayet (WR) spectrum persisted at all times. Together, MCA-1B, HD 5980, and GR 290 constitute a class of WN-type LBVs, distinct from S Doradus LBVs. They are most interesting in the context of LBVs at low metallicity, a possible post-LBV/WR transition in binaries, and as likely Type Ibn supernova progenitors

Barriers and facilitators to implementing a patient-centered model of contraceptive provision in community health centers

Background The Contraceptive CHOICE Project developed a patient-centered model for contraceptive provision including: (1) structured, evidence-based counseling; (2) staff and health care provider education; and (3) removal of barriers such as cost and multiple appointments to initiate contraception. In preparation for conducting a research study of the CHOICE model in three community health settings, we sought to identify potential barriers and facilitators to implementation. Methods Using a semi-structured interview guide guided by a framework of implementation research, we conducted 31 qualitative interviews with female patients, staff, and health care providers assessing attitudes, beliefs, and barriers to receiving contraception. We also asked about current contraceptive provision and explored organizational practices relevant to implementing the CHOICE model. We used a grounded theory approach to identify major themes. Results Many participants felt that current contraceptive provision could be improved by the CHOICE model. Potential facilitators included agreement about the necessity for improved contraceptive knowledge among patients and staff; importance of patient-centered contraceptive counseling; and benefits to same-day insertion of long-acting reversible contraception (LARC). Potential barriers included misconceptions about contraception held by staff and providers; resistance to new practices; costs associated with LARC; and scheduling challenges required for same-day insertion of LARC. Conclusions In addition to staff and provider training, implementing a patient-centered model of contraceptive provision needs to be supplemented by strategies to manage patient and system-level barriers. Community health center staff, providers, and patients support patient-centered contraceptive counseling to improve contraception provision if organizations can address these barriers

A multi-method and multi-scale approach for estimating city-wide anthropogenic heat fluxes

AbstractA multi-method approach estimating summer waste heat emissions from anthropogenic activities (QF) was applied for a major subtropical city (Phoenix, AZ). These included detailed, quality-controlled inventories of city-wide population density and traffic counts to estimate waste heat emissions from population and vehicular sources respectively, and also included waste heat simulations derived from urban electrical consumption generated by a coupled building energy – regional climate model (WRF-BEM + BEP). These component QF data were subsequently summed and mapped through Geographic Information Systems techniques to enable analysis over local (i.e. census-tract) and regional (i.e. metropolitan area) scales. Through this approach, local mean daily QF estimates compared reasonably versus (1.) observed daily surface energy balance residuals from an eddy covariance tower sited within a residential area and (2.) estimates from inventory methods employed in a prior study, with improved sensitivity to temperature and precipitation variations. Regional analysis indicates substantial variations in both mean and maximum daily QF, which varied with urban land use type. Average regional daily QF was ∼13 W m−2 for the summer period. Temporal analyses also indicated notable differences using this approach with previous estimates of QF in Phoenix over different land uses, with much larger peak fluxes averaging ∼50 W m−2 occurring in commercial or industrial areas during late summer afternoons. The spatio-temporal analysis of QF also suggests that it may influence the form and intensity of the Phoenix urban heat island, specifically through additional early evening heat input, and by modifying the urban boundary layer structure through increased turbulence

Results of the 2016 Indianapolis Biodiversity Survey, Marion County, Indiana

Surprising biodiversity can be found in cities, but urban habitats are understudied. We report on a bioblitz conducted primarily within a 24-hr period on September 16 and 17, 2016 in Indianapolis, Indiana, USA. The event focused on stretches of three waterways and their associated riparian habitat: Fall Creek (20.6 ha; 51 acres), Pleasant Run (23.5 ha; 58 acres), and Pogue’s Run (27.1 ha; 67 acres). Over 75 scientists, naturalists, students, and citizen volunteers comprised 14 different taxonomic teams. Five hundred ninety taxa were documented despite the rainy conditions. A brief summary of the methods and findings are presented here. Detailed maps of survey locations and inventory results are available on the Indiana Academy of Science website (https://www.indianaacademyofscience.org/)

Spectropolarimetry of SN 2011dh in M51: geometric insights on a Type IIb supernova progenitor and explosion

We present seven epochs of spectropolarimetry of the Type IIb supernova (SN) 2011dh in M51, spanning 86 days of its evolution. The first epoch was obtained 9 days after the explosion, when the photosphere was still in the depleted hydrogen layer of the stripped-envelope progenitor. Continuum polarization is securely detected at the level of P~0.5% through day 14 and appears to diminish by day 30, which is different from the prevailing trends suggested by studies of other core-collapse SNe. Time-variable modulations in P and position angle are detected across P-Cygni line features. H-alpha and HeI polarization peak after 30 days and exhibit position angles roughly aligned with the earlier continuum, while OI and CaII appear to be geometrically distinct. We discuss several possibilities to explain the evolution of the continuum and line polarization, including the potential effects of a tidally deformed progenitor star, aspherical radioactive heating by fast-rising plumes of Ni-56 from the core, oblique shock breakout, or scattering by circumstellar material. While these possibilities are plausible and guided by theoretical expectations, they are not unique solutions to the data. The construction of more detailed hydrodynamic and radiative-transfer models that incorporate complex aspherical geometries will be required to further elucidate the nature of the polarized radiation from SN 2011dh and other Type IIb supernovae.Comment: Post-proof edit. Accepted to MNRAS 2015 Aug 1

SN2012ab: A Peculiar Type IIn Supernova with Aspherical Circumstellar Material

We present photometry, spectra, and spectropolarimetry of supernova (SN) 2012ab, mostly obtained over the course of $\sim 300$ days after discovery. SN 2012ab was a Type IIn (SN IIn) event discovered near the nucleus of spiral galaxy 2MASXJ12224762+0536247. While its light curve resembles that of SN 1998S, its spectral evolution does not. We see indications of CSM interaction in the strong intermediate-width emission features, the high luminosity (peak at absolute magnitude $M=-19.5$), and the lack of broad absorption features in the spectrum. The H$\alpha$ emission undergoes a peculiar transition. At early times it shows a broad blue emission wing out to $-14{,}000$ km $\mathrm{s^{-1}}$ and a truncated red wing. Then at late times ($>$ 100$\,$days) it shows a truncated blue wing and a very broad red emission wing out to roughly $+20{,}000$ km $\mathrm{s^{-1}}$. This late-time broad red wing probably arises in the reverse shock. Spectra also show an asymmetric intermediate-width H$\alpha$ component with stronger emission on the red side at late times. The evolution of the asymmetric profiles requires a density structure in the distant CSM that is highly aspherical. Our spectropolarimetric data also suggest asphericity with a strong continuum polarization of $\sim 1-3$% and depolarization in the H$\alpha$ line, indicating asphericity in the CSM at a level comparable to that in other SNe IIn. We estimate a mass-loss rate of $\dot{M} = 0.050\, {\rm M}_{\odot}\,\mathrm{yr^{-1}}$ for $v_{\rm pre} = 100$$\,$km$\,$$\mathrm{s^{-1}}$ extending back at least 75$\,$yr prior to the SN. The strong departure from axisymmetry in the CSM of SN 2012ab may suggest that the progenitor was an eccentric binary system undergoing eruptive mass loss.Comment: 18 pages, 12 figure

RAG-induced DNA double-strand breaks signal through Pim2 to promote pre-B cell survival and limit proliferation

Interleukin 7 (IL-7) promotes pre–B cell survival and proliferation by activating the Pim1 and Akt kinases. These signals must be attenuated to induce G1 cell cycle arrest and expression of the RAG endonuclease, which are both required for IgL chain gene rearrangement. As lost IL-7 signals would limit pre–B cell survival, how cells survive during IgL chain gene rearrangement remains unclear. We show that RAG-induced DNA double-strand breaks (DSBs) generated during IgL chain gene assembly paradoxically promote pre–B cell survival. This occurs through the ATM-dependent induction of Pim2 kinase expression. Similar to Pim1, Pim2 phosphorylates BAD, which antagonizes the pro-apoptotic function of BAX. However, unlike IL-7 induction of Pim1, RAG DSB-mediated induction of Pim2 does not drive proliferation. Rather, Pim2 has antiproliferative functions that prevent the transit of pre–B cells harboring RAG DSBs from G1 into S phase, where these DNA breaks could be aberrantly repaired. Thus, signals from IL-7 and RAG DSBs activate distinct Pim kinase family members that have context-dependent activities in regulating pre–B cell proliferation and survival

A new and unusual LBV-like outburst from a Wolf–Rayet star in the outskirts of M33

MCA-1B (also called UIT003) is a luminous hot star in the western outskirts of M33, classified over 20 yr ago with a spectral type of Ofpe/WN9 and identified then as a candidate luminous blue variable (LBV). Palomar Transient Factory data reveal that this star brightened in 2010, with a light curve resembling that of the classic LBV star AF And in M31. Other Ofpe/WN9 stars have erupted as LBVs, but MCA-1B was unusual because it remained hot. It showed a WN-type spectrum throughout its eruption, whereas LBVs usually get much cooler. MCA-1B showed an almost four-fold increase in bolometric luminosity and a doubling of its radius, but its temperature stayed ≳29 kK. As it faded, it shifted to even hotter temperatures, exhibiting a WN7/WN8-type spectrum, and doubling its wind speed. MCA-1B is reminiscent of some supernova impostors, and its location resembles the isolated environment of SN 2009ip. It is most similar to HD 5980 (in the Small Magellanic Cloud) and GR 290 (also in M33). Whereas these two LBVs exhibited B-type spectra in eruption, MCA-1B is the first clear case where a Wolf–Rayet (WR) spectrum persisted at all times. Together, MCA-1B, HD 5980, and GR 290 constitute a class of WN-type LBVs, distinct from S Doradus LBVs. They are most interesting in the context of LBVs at low metallicity, a possible post-LBV/WR transition in binaries, and as likely Type Ibn supernova progenitors