What is the Real-World CO2 Reduction Benefit of the 95g/km Passenger Car Average Emission Target to be Reached by 2020?

AbstractRoad transport is responsible for roughly 20% of total Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Europe with passenger cars being a significant fraction. To control this, emission limits for CO2 have been set, with the target is to reach 130g/km of CO2 as an average for all new passenger cars in 2015. The medium-term target is to reach 95g/km average in 2020. These average values refer to CO2 emission over the New European Driving Cycle (NEDC). This cycle has been recently considered to be misrepresenting actual driving conditions. Hence, a vehicle may emit significantly higher CO2 emissions in real-world than it does over the NEDC. This paper aims at quantifying the impact in real-world CO2 emissions by selecting different technology pathways to reach the 95g/km target. Along with a basecase scenario considering, three alternative scenarios were examined. The first scenario considers downsizing to smaller and more efficient diesel and gasoline cars. The second one assumes that hybrids will be the prime technology for emission reduction. The third scenario assumes that electrification will be the main technology pathway. The 95g/km target is reached in all scenarios. Results show that despite the statutory target is fixed, actual reductions over the basecase scenario differ. Electrification, downsizing, and hybridization scenarios achieve 3%, 4,1%, and 11% CO2 reductions over the basecase new registrations in 2020, respectively. The average CO2 emission factor in the same order is 117, 116 and 108g/km. These results show that actual CO2 reductions to be reached not only depend on the average CO2 value agreed but also on the technology pathway selected. Conclusions were obtained under certain boundary conditions and by studying a limited suite of scenarios and technology pathways. However, our intention has been to demonstrate that real-world performance differs than statutory targets by offering a few examples. Such an approach, when further developed and adjusted to national circumstances, may be used to inform policy regarding the expected benefits of vehicle GHG regulation in view of wider targets, such as the 20-20-20 initiative

European type-approval test procedure for evaporative emissions from passenger cars against real-world mobility data from two Italian provinces

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Parameterisation of fuel consumption and CO2 emissions of passenger cars and light commercial vehicles for modelling purposes

CO2 emissions of new passenger cars (PCs) registered in Europe are monitored in order to meet the objectives of Regulation EC 443/2009. This calls for an average CO2 emission of 130 g/km for new PCs registered in Europe to be met by vehicle measures in 2015. This decreases to 95 g/km in 2020. Similar regulations are gradually promoted for other vehicle categories as well, more prominently for light commercial vehicles (LCVs). CO2 emissions of new vehicle types are determined during the vehicle type-approval by testing over the New European Driving Cycle (NEDC). Worries have been expressed that this driving cycle is not representative of real-world driving conditions. It is considered that fuel consumption, and hence CO2 emissions (and air pollutant emissions), measured over this cycle under-represent reality. This report uses real-world information to compare in-use fuel consumption of PCs with type-approval CO2. The main objective was to develop functions that may enable prediction of in-use fuel consumption values, based on vehicle specifications. The functions can then be used in inventorying tools, such as COPERT and HBEFA, to correctly allocate fuel consumption to the different PC vehicle types.JRC.F.9-Sustainable Transport (Ispra

Joint EUCAR/JRC/CONCAWE Study on: Effects of Gasoline Vapour Pressure and Ethanol Content on Evaporative Emissions from Modern Cars

A test programme designed to investigate the influence of gasoline vapour pressure and ethanol content on evaporative emissions from modern passenger cars has been carried out by the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission jointly with CONCAWE and EUCAR. Seven gasoline passenger cars representative of current EURO 3/4 emissions technology were tested for evaporative emissions with ten different test fuels. The test fuel matrix comprised 60 and 70 kPa hydrocarbon base fuels with 5 and 10% ethanol splash blends and 5 and 10% ethanol matched volatility blends. The evaporative emission tests were carried out according to a test protocol based on the European homologation test procedure, with no additional vehicle conditioning. Although this test protocol turned out to have a considerable influence on the results, the programme has provided valuable information and several clear conclusions can be drawn. The programme confirmed that vapour pressure (DVPE) is a key fuel variable for evaporative emissions. However the effect of vapour pressure is strongly non-linear; the ethanol blends with final DVPE around 75 kPa gave considerably higher evaporative emissions than the lower volatility fuels in most of the vehicles. Differences between fuels with DVPE in the range 60-70 kPa were small. Additional tests on two vehicles performed after the main programme have raised some questions about possible effects of ethanol on carbon canister working capacity and on the role of permeation in determining evaporative emissions.JRC.H.4-Transport and air qualit

Estimating the Costs and Benefits of Introducing a New European Evaporative Emissions Test Procedure : Final Report

Evaporative emissions of non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) arise from the vehicle’s fuel system under changes in ambient and vehicle temperature. NMVOCs contribute to ground-level ozone and urban smog and pose a threat to human health. A revised test procedure for evaporative emissions and its possible implementation is currently under discussion by the European Commission. This study undertakes a cost-benefit analysis of four possible scenarios for the implementation of a revised test procedure for the period 2015-2040. In the base case scenario and scenarios 1, 2, 2+, 3 it is assumed that the share of vehicles equipped with monolayer tanks will progressively decrease. Indirect cost multipliers (ICM) were used to estimate short- and long-run costs to the manufacturer. The COPERT model used to estimate EU evaporative emissions from the Euro 6 petrol vehicle population over time. Low and high marginal damage costs from the CAFE Programme were used to calculate the economic value of the damage avoided. The study concludes that the most beneficial strategy is the implementation of a more aggressive purging strategy over 48 hours and greater canister durability (scenario 2+). The average net benefit of implementing scenario 2+ is €146,709,441 at a 6% discount rate is considerably higher than the other scenarios considered. Under scenario 2+, the per vehicle benefits range from €6-9 but when fuel savings benefits are added, total benefits range from €13-18. This is compared to average additional cost per vehicle of €9JRC.F.8-Sustainable Transpor

Cost effectiveness of introducing a new European evaporative emissions test procedure for petrol vehicles

Evaporative emissions of non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) arise from the vehicle’s fuel system due to changes in ambient and vehicle temperatures, and contribute to urban smog. This paper presents an economic analysis of the societal costs and benefits of implementing a revised European evaporative emission test procedure for petrol vehicles under four scenarios for the period 2015-2040. The paper concludes that the most cost-effective option is the implementation of an aggressive purging strategy over 48 hours and improved canister durability (scenario 2+). The average net benefit of implementing this scenario is €146,709,441 at a 6% discount rate. Per vehicle benefits range from €6-9 but when fuel savings benefits are added, total benefits range from €13-18. This is compared to average additional cost per vehicle of €9.JRC.F.8-Sustainable Transpor

European type-approval test procedure for evaporative emissions from passenger cars against real-world mobility data from two Italian provinces

This paper presents an evaluation of the European type-approval test procedure for evaporative emissions from passenger cars based on real-world mobility data. The study relies on two large databases of driving patterns from conventional fuel vehicles collected by means of on-board GPS systems in the Italian provinces of Modena and Firenze. Approximately 28,000 vehicles were monitored, corresponding to approximately 36 million kilometres over a period of one month. The driving pattern of each vehicle was processed to derive the relation between trip length and parking duration, and the rate of occurrence of parking events against multiple evaporative cycles, defined on the basis of the type-approval test procedure as 12-hour diurnal time windows. These results are used as input for an emission simulation model, which calculates the total evaporative emissions given the characteristics of the evaporative emission control system of the vehicle and the ambient temperature conditions. The results suggest that the evaporative emission control system, fitted to the vehicles from Euro 3 step and optimised for the current type-approval test procedure, could not efficiently work under real-world conditions, resulting in evaporative emissions well above the type-approval limit, especially for small size vehicles and warm climate conditions. This calls for a revision of the type-approval test procedure in order to address real-world evaporative emissions.JRC.F.8-Sustainable Transpor

A Vehicle Testing Programme for Calibration and Validation of an Evaporative Emissions Model

A vehicle testing programme has been designed in order to calibrate and validate an empirical evaporative emissions model developed in previous work. To this aim, a large number of "targeted" tests have been performed on four vehicles covering a wide range of the model input parameters such as fuel volatility, ambient temperature, fuel tank and carbon canister size, fuel system materials. The fair agreement between modelled and measured values demonstrates that "bottom-up" modelling work and "top-down" vehicle testing may be combined to predict evaporative emissions on a vehicle level.JRC.H.4-Transport and air qualit