94 research outputs found
f(R) theories
Over the past decade, f(R) theories have been extensively studied as one of
the simplest modifications to General Relativity. In this article we review
various applications of f(R) theories to cosmology and gravity - such as
inflation, dark energy, local gravity constraints, cosmological perturbations,
and spherically symmetric solutions in weak and strong gravitational
backgrounds. We present a number of ways to distinguish those theories from
General Relativity observationally and experimentally. We also discuss the
extension to other modified gravity theories such as Brans-Dicke theory and
Gauss-Bonnet gravity, and address models that can satisfy both cosmological and
local gravity constraints.Comment: 156 pages, 14 figures, Invited review article in Living Reviews in
Relativity, Published version, Comments are welcom
Model-based geostatistical mapping of the prevalence of onchocerca volvulus in West Africa.
Background:
The initial endemicity (pre-control prevalence) of onchocerciasis has been shown to be an important determinant of the feasibility of elimination by mass ivermectin distribution. We present the first geostatistical map of microfilarial prevalence in the former Onchocerciasis Control Programme in West Africa (OCP) before commencement of antivectorial and antiparasitic interventions.
Methods and Findings:
Pre-control microfilarial prevalence data from 737 villages across the 11 constituent countries in the OCP epidemiological database were used as ground-truth data. These 737 data points, plus a set of statistically selected environmental covariates, were used in a Bayesian model-based geostatistical (B-MBG) approach to generate a continuous surface (at pixel resolution of 5 km x 5km) of microfilarial prevalence in West Africa prior to the commencement of the OCP. Uncertainty in model predictions was measured using a suite of validation statistics, performed on bootstrap samples of held-out validation data. The mean Pearsonâs correlation between observed and estimated prevalence at validation locations was 0.693; the mean prediction error (average difference between observed and estimated values) was 0.77%, and the mean absolute prediction error (average magnitude of difference between observed and estimated values) was 12.2%. Within OCP boundaries, 17.8 million people were deemed to have been at risk, 7.55 million to have been infected, and mean microfilarial prevalence to have been 45% (range: 2â90%) in 1975.
Conclusions and Significance:
This is the first map of initial onchocerciasis prevalence in West Africa using B-MBG. Important environmental predictors of infection prevalence were identified and used in a model out-performing those without spatial random effects or environmental covariates. Results may be compared with recent epidemiological mapping efforts to find areas of persisting transmission. These methods may be extended to areas where data are sparse, and may be used to help inform the feasibility of elimination with current and novel tools
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