A network-based dynamical ranking system for competitive sports

From the viewpoint of networks, a ranking system for players or teams in sports is equivalent to a centrality measure for sports networks, whereby a directed link represents the result of a single game. Previously proposed network-based ranking systems are derived from static networks, i.e., aggregation of the results of games over time. However, the score of a player (or team) fluctuates over time. Defeating a renowned player in the peak performance is intuitively more rewarding than defeating the same player in other periods. To account for this factor, we propose a dynamic variant of such a network-based ranking system and apply it to professional men's tennis data. We derive a set of linear online update equations for the score of each player. The proposed ranking system predicts the outcome of the future games with a higher accuracy than the static counterparts.Comment: 6 figure

Theoretical size distribution of fossil taxa: analysis of a null model

BACKGROUND: This article deals with the theoretical size distribution (of number of sub-taxa) of a fossil taxon arising from a simple null model of macroevolution. MODEL: New species arise through speciations occurring independently and at random at a fixed probability rate, while extinctions either occur independently and at random (background extinctions) or cataclysmically. In addition new genera are assumed to arise through speciations of a very radical nature, again assumed to occur independently and at random at a fixed probability rate. CONCLUSION: The size distributions of the pioneering genus (following a cataclysm) and of derived genera are determined. Also the distribution of the number of genera is considered along with a comparison of the probability of a monospecific genus with that of a monogeneric family

A hypothetico-deductive approach to assessing the social function of chemical signalling in a non-territorial solitary carnivore

The function of chemical signalling in non-territorial solitary carnivores is still relatively unclear. Studies on territorial solitary and social carnivores have highlighted odour capability and utility, however the social function of chemical signalling in wild carnivore populations operating dominance hierarchy social systems has received little attention. We monitored scent marking and investigatory behaviour of wild brown bears Ursus arctos, to test multiple hypotheses relating to the social function of chemical signalling. Camera traps were stationed facing bear ‘marking trees’ to document behaviour by different age sex classes in different seasons. We found evidence to support the hypothesis that adult males utilise chemical signalling to communicate dominance to other males throughout the non-denning period. Adult females did not appear to utilise marking trees to advertise oestrous state during the breeding season. The function of marking by subadult bears is somewhat unclear, but may be related to the behaviour of adult males. Subadults investigated trees more often than they scent marked during the breeding season, which could be a result of an increased risk from adult males. Females with young showed an increase in marking and investigation of trees outside of the breeding season. We propose the hypothesis that females engage their dependent young with marking trees from a young age, at a relatively ‘safe’ time of year. Memory, experience, and learning at a young age, may all contribute towards odour capabilities in adult bears

The use of Raman spectroscopy to differentiate between different prostatic adenocarcinoma cell lines

Raman spectroscopy (RS) is an optical technique that provides an objective method of pathological diagnosis based on the molecular composition of tissue. Studies have shown that the technique can accurately identify and grade prostatic adenocarcinoma (CaP) in vitro. This study aimed to determine whether RS was able to differentiate between CaP cell lines of varying degrees of biological aggressiveness. Raman spectra were measured from two well-differentiated, androgen-sensitive cell lines (LNCaP and PCa 2b) and two poorly differentiated, androgen-insensitive cell lines (DU145 and PC 3). Principal component analysis was used to study the molecular differences that exist between cell lines and, in conjunction with linear discriminant analysis, was applied to 200 spectra to construct a diagnostic algorithm capable of differentiating between the different cell lines. The algorithm was able to identify the cell line of each individual cell with an overall sensitivity of 98% and a specificity of 99%. The results further demonstrate the ability of RS to differentiate between CaP samples of varying biological aggressiveness. RS shows promise for application in the diagnosis and grading of CaP in clinical practise as well as providing molecular information on CaP samples in a research setting

Local Difference Measures between Complex Networks for Dynamical System Model Evaluation

Acknowledgments We thank Reik V. Donner for inspiring suggestions that initialized the work presented herein. Jan H. Feldhoff is credited for providing us with the STARS simulation data and for his contributions to fruitful discussions. Comments by the anonymous reviewers are gratefully acknowledged as they led to substantial improvements of the manuscript.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Estimating Grizzly and Black Bear Population Abundance and Trend in Banff National Park Using Noninvasive Genetic Sampling

We evaluated the potential of two noninvasive genetic sampling methods, hair traps and bear rub surveys, to estimate population abundance and trend of grizzly (Ursus arctos) and black bear (U. americanus) populations in Banff National Park, Alberta, Canada. Using Huggins closed population mark-recapture models, we obtained the first precise abundance estimates for grizzly bears ( = 73.5, 95% CI = 64–94 in 2006;  = 50.4, 95% CI = 49–59 in 2008) and black bears ( = 62.6, 95% CI = 51–89 in 2006;  = 81.8, 95% CI = 72–102 in 2008) in the Bow Valley. Hair traps had high detection rates for female grizzlies, and male and female black bears, but extremely low detection rates for male grizzlies. Conversely, bear rubs had high detection rates for male and female grizzlies, but low rates for black bears. We estimated realized population growth rates, lambda, for grizzly bear males ( = 0.93, 95% CI = 0.74–1.17) and females ( = 0.90, 95% CI = 0.67–1.20) using Pradel open population models with three years of bear rub data. Lambda estimates are supported by abundance estimates from combined hair trap/bear rub closed population models and are consistent with a system that is likely driven by high levels of human-caused mortality. Our results suggest that bear rub surveys would provide an efficient and powerful means to inventory and monitor grizzly bear populations in the Central Canadian Rocky Mountains

Convergent evolution and topologically disruptive polymorphisms among multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in Peru.

BACKGROUND: Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis poses a major threat to the success of tuberculosis control programs worldwide. Understanding how drug-resistant tuberculosis evolves can inform the development of new therapeutic and preventive strategies. METHODS: Here, we use novel genome-wide analysis techniques to identify polymorphisms that are associated with drug resistance, adaptive evolution and the structure of the phylogenetic tree. A total of 471 samples from different patients collected between 2009 and 2013 in the Lima suburbs of Callao and Lima South were sequenced on the Illumina MiSeq platform with 150bp paired-end reads. After alignment to the reference H37Rv genome, variants were called using standardized methodology. Genome-wide analysis was undertaken using custom written scripts implemented in R software. RESULTS: High quality homoplastic single nucleotide polymorphisms were observed in genes known to confer drug resistance as well as genes in the Mycobacterium tuberculosis ESX secreted protein pathway, pks12, and close to toxin/anti-toxin pairs. Correlation of homoplastic variant sites identified that many were significantly correlated, suggestive of epistasis. Variation in genes coding for ESX secreted proteins also significantly disrupted phylogenetic structure. Mutations in ESX genes in key antigenic epitope positions were also found to disrupt tree topology. CONCLUSION: Variation in these genes have a biologically plausible effect on immunogenicity and virulence. This makes functional characterization warranted to determine the effects of these polymorphisms on bacterial fitness and transmission