Mean-field models for non-Markovian epidemics on networks

This paper introduces a novel extension of the edge-based compartmental model to epidemics where the transmission and recovery processes are driven by general independent probability distributions. Edge-based compartmental modelling is just one of many different approaches used to model the spread of an infectious disease on a network; the major result of this paper is the rigorous proof that the edge-based compartmental model and the message passing models are equivalent for general independent transmission and recovery processes. This implies that the new model is exact on the ensemble of configuration model networks of infinite size. For the case of Markovian transmission themessage passing model is re-parametrised into a pairwise-like model which is then used to derive many well-known pairwise models for regular networks, or when the infectious period is exponentially distributed or is of a fixed length

The IRYSS-COPD appropriateness study: objectives, methodology, and description of the prospective cohort

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) often experience exacerbations of the disease that require hospitalization. Current guidelines offer little guidance for identifying patients whose clinical situation is appropriate for admission to the hospital, and properly developed and validated severity scores for COPD exacerbations are lacking. To address these important gaps in clinical care, we created the IRYSS-COPD Appropriateness Study.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>The RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Methodology was used to identify appropriate and inappropriate scenarios for hospital admission for patients experiencing COPD exacerbations. These scenarios were then applied to a prospective cohort of patients attending the emergency departments (ED) of 16 participating hospitals. Information was recorded during the time the patient was evaluated in the ED, at the time a decision was made to admit the patient to the hospital or discharge home, and during follow-up after admission or discharge home. While complete data were generally available at the time of ED admission, data were often missing at the time of decision making. Predefined assumptions were used to impute much of the missing data.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>The IRYSS-COPD Appropriateness Study will validate the appropriateness criteria developed by the RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Methodology and thus better delineate the requirements for admission or discharge of patients experiencing exacerbations of COPD. The study will also provide a better understanding of the determinants of outcomes of COPD exacerbations, and evaluate the equity and variability in access and outcomes in these patients.</p

Breast imaging technology: Recent advances in imaging endogenous or transferred gene expression utilizing radionuclide technologies in living subjects - applications to breast cancer

A variety of imaging technologies is being investigated as tools for studying gene expression in living subjects. Two technologies that use radiolabeled isotopes are single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) and positron emission tomography (PET). A relatively high sensitivity, a full quantitative tomographic capability, and the ability to extend small animal imaging assays directly into human applications characterize radionuclide approaches. Various radiolabeled probes (tracers) can be synthesized to target specific molecules present in breast cancer cells. These include antibodies or ligands to target cell surface receptors, substrates for intracellular enzymes, antisense oligodeoxynucleotide probes for targeting mRNA, probes for targeting intracellular receptors, and probes for genes transferred into the cell. We briefly discuss each of these imaging approaches and focus in detail on imaging reporter genes. In a PET reporter gene system for in vivo reporter gene imaging, the protein products of the reporter genes sequester positron emitting reporter probes. PET subsequently measures the PET reporter gene dependent sequestration of the PET reporter probe in living animals. We describe and review reporter gene approaches using the herpes simplex type 1 virus thymidine kinase and the dopamine type 2 receptor genes. Application of the reporter gene approach to animal models for breast cancer is discussed. Prospects for future applications of the transgene imaging technology in human gene therapy are also discussed. Both SPECT and PET provide unique opportunities to study animal models of breast cancer with direct application to human imaging. Continued development of new technology, probes and assays should help in the better understanding of basic breast cancer biology and in the improved management of breast cancer patients

Zebrafish arl6ip1 Is Required for Neural Crest Development during Embryogenesis

BACKGROUND:Although the embryonic expression pattern of ADP ribosylation factor-like 6 interacting protein 1 (Arl6ip1) has been reported, its function in neural crest development is unclear. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:We found that knockdown of Arl6ip1 caused defective embryonic neural crest derivatives that were particularly severe in craniofacial cartilages. Expressions of the ectodermal patterning factors msxb, dlx3b, and pax3 were normal, but the expressions of the neural crest specifier genes foxd3, snai1b, and sox10 were greatly reduced. These findings suggest that arl6ip1 is essential for specification of neural crest derivatives, but not neural crest induction. Furthermore, we revealed that the streams of crestin- and sox10-expressing neural crest cells, which migrate ventrally from neural tube into trunk, were disrupted in arl6ip1 morphants. This migration defect was not only in the trunk neural crest, but also in the enteric tract where the vagal-derived neural crest cells failed to populate the enteric nervous system. We found that this migration defect was induced by dampened Shh signaling, which may have resulted from defective cilia. These data further suggested that arl6ip1 is required for neural crest migration. Finally, by double-staining of TUNEL and crestin, we confirmed that the loss of neural crest cells could not be attributed to apoptosis. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE:Therefore, we concluded that arl6ip1 is required for neural crest migration and sublineage specification

Membrane anchoring stabilizes and favors secretion of New Delhi metallo-β-lactamase

Carbapenems, 'last-resort' β-lactam antibiotics, are inactivated by zinc-dependent metallo-β-lactamases (MBLs). The host innate immune response withholds nutrient metal ions from microbial pathogens by releasing metal-chelating proteins such as calprotectin. We show that metal sequestration is detrimental for the accumulation of MBLs in the bacterial periplasm, because those enzymes are readily degraded in their nonmetallated form. However, the New Delhi metallo-β-lactamase (NDM-1) can persist under conditions of metal depletion. NDM-1 is a lipidated protein that anchors to the outer membrane of Gram-negative bacteria. Membrane anchoring contributes to the unusual stability of NDM-1 and favors secretion of this enzyme in outer-membrane vesicles (OMVs). OMVs containing NDM-1 can protect nearby populations of bacteria from otherwise lethal antibiotic levels, and OMVs from clinical pathogens expressing NDM-1 can carry this MBL and the bla[subscript NDM] gene. We show that protein export into OMVs can be targeted, providing possibilities of new antibacterial therapeutic strategies.Kinship Foundation. Searle Scholars ProgramMassachusetts Institute of Technology. Department of Chemistr

Transfusion-transmitted infections

Although the risk of transfusion-transmitted infections today is lower than ever, the supply of safe blood products remains subject to contamination with known and yet to be identified human pathogens. Only continuous improvement and implementation of donor selection, sensitive screening tests and effective inactivation procedures can ensure the elimination, or at least reduction, of the risk of acquiring transfusion transmitted infections. In addition, ongoing education and up-to-date information regarding infectious agents that are potentially transmitted via blood components is necessary to promote the reporting of adverse events, an important component of transfusion transmitted disease surveillance. Thus, the collaboration of all parties involved in transfusion medicine, including national haemovigilance systems, is crucial for protecting a secure blood product supply from known and emerging blood-borne pathogens

Collaborative planning approach to inform the implementation of a healthcare manager intervention for hispanics with serious mental illness: a study protocol

Background: This study describes a collaborative planning approach that blends principles of community-based participatory research (CBPR) and intervention mapping to modify a healthcare manager intervention to a new patient population and provider group and to assess the feasibility and acceptability of this modified intervention to improve the physical health of Hispanics with serious mental illness (SMI) and at risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Methods: The proposed study uses a multiphase approach that applies CBPR principles and intervention-mapping steps--an intervention-planning approach--to move from intervention planning to pilot testing. In phase I, a community advisory board composed of researchers and stakeholders will be assembled to learn and review the intervention and make initial modifications. Phase II uses a combination of qualitative methods--patient focus groups and stakeholder interviews--to ensure that the modifications are acceptable to all stakeholders. Phase III uses results from phase II to further modify the intervention, develop an implementation plan, and train two care managers on the modified intervention. Phase IV consists of a 12-month open pilot study (N = 30) to assess the feasibility and acceptability of the modified intervention and explore its initial effects. Lastly, phase V consists of analysis of pilot study data and preparation for future funding to develop a more rigorous evaluation of the modified intervention. Discussion: The proposed study is one of the few projects to date to focus on improving the physical health of Hispanics with SMI and at risk for CVD by using a collaborative planning approach to enhance the transportability and use of a promising healthcare manager intervention. This study illustrates how blending health-disparities research and implementation science can help reduce the disproportionate burden of medical illness in a vulnerable population

International comparisons of laboratory values from the 4CE collaborative to predict COVID-19 mortality

Given the growing number of prediction algorithms developed to predict COVID-19 mortality, we evaluated the transportability of a mortality prediction algorithm using a multi-national network of healthcare systems. We predicted COVID-19 mortality using baseline commonly measured laboratory values and standard demographic and clinical covariates across healthcare systems, countries, and continents. Specifically, we trained a Cox regression model with nine measured laboratory test values, standard demographics at admission, and comorbidity burden pre-admission. These models were compared at site, country, and continent level. Of the 39,969 hospitalized patients with COVID-19 (68.6% male), 5717 (14.3%) died. In the Cox model, age, albumin, AST, creatine, CRP, and white blood cell count are most predictive of mortality. The baseline covariates are more predictive of mortality during the early days of COVID-19 hospitalization. Models trained at healthcare systems with larger cohort size largely retain good transportability performance when porting to different sites. The combination of routine laboratory test values at admission along with basic demographic features can predict mortality in patients hospitalized with COVID-19. Importantly, this potentially deployable model differs from prior work by demonstrating not only consistent performance but also reliable transportability across healthcare systems in the US and Europe, highlighting the generalizability of this model and the overall approach

Multifrequency studies of the peculiar quasar 4C+21.35 during the 2010 flaring activity

The discovery of rapidly variable Very High Energy ( VHE; E &gt; 100 GeV). - ray emission from 4C + 21.35 ( PKS 1222+ 216) by MAGIC on 2010 June 17, triggered by the high activity detected by the Fermi Large Area Telescope ( LAT) in high energy ( HE; E &gt; 100 MeV). - rays, poses intriguing questions on the location of the. - ray emitting region in this flat spectrum radio quasar. We present multifrequency data of 4C + 21.35 collected from centimeter to VHE during 2010 to investigate the properties of this source and discuss a possible emission model. The first hint of detection at VHE was observed by MAGIC on 2010 May 3, soon after a gamma- ray flare detected by Fermi-LAT that peaked on April 29. The same emission mechanism may therefore be responsible for both the HE and VHE emission during the 2010 flaring episodes. Two optical peaks were detected on 2010 April 20 and June 30, close in time but not simultaneous with the two gamma- ray peaks, while no clear connection was observed between the X-ray and gamma- ray emission. An increasing flux density was observed in radio and mm bands from the beginning of 2009, in accordance with the increasing gamma- ray activity observed by Fermi-LAT, and peaking on 2011 January 27 in the mm regime ( 230 GHz). We model the spectral energy distributions ( SEDs) of 4C + 21.35 for the two periods of the VHE detection and a quiescent state, using a one-zone model with the emission coming from a very compact region outside the broad line region. The three SEDs can be fit with a combination of synchrotron self-Compton and external Compton emission of seed photons from a dust torus, changing only the electron distribution parameters between the epochs. The fit of the optical/UV part of the spectrum for 2010 April 29 seems to favor an inner disk radius of &lt; six gravitational radii, as one would expect from a prograde-rotating Kerr black hole.</p