A multi-scale modelling framework to guide management of plant invasions in a transboundary context

Background Attention has recently been drawn to the issue of transboundary invasions, where species introduced and naturalized in one country cross international borders and become problematic in neighbouring countries. Robust modelling frameworks, able to identify the environmental drivers of invasion and forecast the current and future potential distribution of invasive species, are needed to study and manage invasions. Limitations due to the lack of species distribution and environmental data, or assumptions of modelling tools, often constrain the reliability of model predictions. Methods We present a multiscale spatial modelling framework for transboundary invasions, incorporating robust modelling frameworks (Multimodel Inference and Ensemble Modelling) to overcome some of the limitations. The framework is illustrated using Hakea sericea Schrad. (Proteaceae), a shrub or small tree native to Australia and invasive in several regions of the world, including the Iberian Peninsula. Two study scales were considered: regional scale (western Iberia, including mainland Portugal and Galicia) and local scale (northwest Portugal). At the regional scale, the relative importance of environmental predictors sets was evaluated and ranked to determine the main general drivers for the species distribution, while the importance of each environmental predictor was assessed at the local scale. The potential distribution of H. sericea was spatially projected for both scale areas. Results Model projections for western Iberia suggest that a large area is environmentally suitable in both Portugal and Spain. Climate and landscape composition sets were the most important determinants of this regional distribution of the species. Conversely, a geological predictor (schist lithology) was more important in explaining its local-scale distribution. Conclusions After being introduced to Portugal, H. sericea has become a transboundary invader by expanding in parts of Galicia (Spain). The fact that a larger area is predicted as environmentally suitable in Spain raises concerns regarding its potential continued expansion. This highlights the importance of transboundary cooperation in the early management of invasions. By reliably identifying drivers and providing spatial projections of invasion at multiple scales, this framework provides insights for the study and management of biological invasions, including the assessment of transboundary invasion risk.This work was funded by FEDER funds through the Operational Programme for Competitiveness Factors - COMPETE and by National Funds through FCT - Foundation for Science and Technology under the project PTDC/AAGMAA/4539/2012 / FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-027863 (IND_CHANGE). J. Vicente is supported by POPH/FSE funds and by National Funds through FCT - Foundation for Science and Technology through Post-doctoral grant SFRH/BPD/84044/2012. D.M. Richardson acknowledges support from the DST-NRF Centre of Excellence for Invasion Biology and the National Research Foundation (grant 85417).info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Adaptive Traits Are Maintained on Steep Selective Gradients despite Gene Flow and Hybridization in the Intertidal Zone

Gene flow among hybridizing species with incomplete reproductive barriers blurs species boundaries, while selection under heterogeneous local ecological conditions or along strong gradients may counteract this tendency. Congeneric, externally-fertilizing fucoid brown algae occur as distinct morphotypes along intertidal exposure gradients despite gene flow. Combining analyses of genetic and phenotypic traits, we investigate the potential for physiological resilience to emersion stressors to act as an isolating mechanism in the face of gene flow. Along vertical exposure gradients in the intertidal zone of Northern Portugal and Northwest France, the mid-low shore species Fucus vesiculosus, the upper shore species Fucus spiralis, and an intermediate distinctive morphotype of F. spiralis var. platycarpus were morphologically characterized. Two diagnostic microsatellite loci recovered 3 genetic clusters consistent with prior morphological assignment. Phylogenetic analysis based on single nucleotide polymorphisms in 14 protein coding regions unambiguously resolved 3 clades; sympatric F. vesiculosus, F. spiralis, and the allopatric (in southern Iberia) population of F. spiralis var. platycarpus. In contrast, the sympatric F. spiralis var. platycarpus (from Northern Portugal) was distributed across the 3 clades, strongly suggesting hybridization/introgression with both other entities. Common garden experiments showed that physiological resilience following exposure to desiccation/heat stress differed significantly between the 3 sympatric genetic taxa; consistent with their respective vertical distribution on steep environmental clines in exposure time. Phylogenetic analyses indicate that F. spiralis var. platycarpus is a distinct entity in allopatry, but that extensive gene flow occurs with both higher and lower shore species in sympatry. Experimental results suggest that strong selection on physiological traits across steep intertidal exposure gradients acts to maintain the 3 distinct genetic and morphological taxa within their preferred vertical distribution ranges. On the strength of distributional, genetic, physiological and morphological differences, we propose elevation of F. spiralis var. platycarpus from variety to species level, as F. guiryi