Evaluating the risks of pasture and land degradation in native pastures in Queensland

The objective of the project was to develop an approach to quantify the risks of land nd pasture degradation. This objective was achieved by developing an operational model of the condition of native pastures in Queensland. The results of the project showed that: 1) historical and current pasture data can be used with models to simulate grazing lands in near real-time; 2) spatial models of production can be developed and validated with existing spatial data and monitoring systems; 3) data from graziers indicate that safe utilisation rates are 15-25% of average pasture growth; 4) relative risks of land and pasture can be quantified from simulations using actual numbers compared to safe stocking rates; and 5) case studies using the pasture growth model and models of grazing feedback on pasture and land degradation to evaluate the economic consequences of stocking rate strategies have been used in other projects (e.g. DroughtPlan: McKeon et al. 1996, Stafford Smith et al. 1996)

Objective `Safe' Grazing Capacities for South-West Queensland Australia: Development of a Model for Individual Properties

Few tools are available to assist graziers, land administrators and financiers in making objective grazing capacity decisions on Australian rangelands, despite existing knowledge regarding stocking rate theory and the impact of stocking rates on land condition. To address this issue a model for objectively estimating 'safe' grazing capacities on individual grazing properties in south-west Queensland was developed. The method is based on 'safe' levels of utilisation (15%-20%) by domestic livestock of average annual forage grown for each land system on a property. Average annual forage grown (kglha) was calculated as the product of the rainfall use efficiency (kglhdmm) and average annual rainfall (mm) for a land system. This estimate included the impact of tree and shrub cover on forage production. The 'safe' levels of forage utilisation for south- west Queensland pastures were derived from the combined experience of (1) re-analysis of the results of grazing trials, (2) reaching a consensus on local knowledge and (3) examination of existing grazing practice on 'benchmark' grazing properties. We recognise the problems in defining, determining and using grazing capacity values, but consider that the model offers decision makers a tool that can be used to assess the grazing capacity of individual properties

Climate Change in Queensland's Grazing Lands. I. Approaches and Climatic Trends

Climate change is an important global issue but is yet to be recognised as such by many rangelands users. This paper reviews some of the uncertainties relating to pre-instrumental and future climate change and documents current trends and fluctuations in climate of Queensland's grazing lands. Analysis of daily climate surfaces for Queensland's pastoral/cropping zone shows high variability in annual rainfall which is influenced by the El NiHo-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. This relationship, when examined using moving windows, has changed during this century with the 1930-40s being a period of low correlation. Minimum temperatures taken from the climate surfaces also changed, showing a significant (P<0.01) increase over time especially in May. Over the 40 years since 1957, annual minimum temperatures have increased by l.0°C for the pastoral/cropping zone and coastal sub-zone, winter minimum temperatures by 1.2°C for the pastoral/cropping zone (1.3°C for the coastal sub-zone), summer minimum temperatures by 0.7°C for the pastoral/cropping zone and coastal sub-zone, and May minimum temperatures by 2.8°C for the pastoral/cropping zone (3.0°C for the coastal sub-zone). Consistent significant trends in vapour pressure (increasing, P<0.001) and solar radiation (decreasing, P<0.05) also occurred in May. The mechanisms for the identified climate trends and unusual behaviour of ENS0 are the subject of speculation with attribution of causes to natural variability or the enhanced greenhouse effect being unresolved. Continued monitoring of these trends and fluctuations will be important for the future management of Queensland's grazing lands with this analysis highlighting the need for discrimination of trends from natural variability. In terms of grazing management and degradation processes, this work also highlights that general changes in climate averages may disguise important variation at yearly and decadal time scales

The climate change risk management matrix for the grazing industry of northern Australia

The complexity, variability and vastness of the northern Australian rangelands make it difficult to assess the risks associated with climate change. In this paper we present a methodology to help industry and primary producers assess risks associated with climate change and to assess the effectiveness of adaptation options in managing those risks. Our assessment involved three steps. Initially, the impacts and adaptation responses were documented in matrices by ‘experts’ (rangeland and climate scientists). Then, a modified risk management framework was used to develop risk management matrices that identified important impacts, areas of greatest vulnerability (combination of potential impact and adaptive capacity) and priority areas for action at the industry level. The process was easy to implement and useful for arranging and analysing large amounts of information (both complex and interacting). Lastly, regional extension officers (after minimal ‘climate literacy’ training) could build on existing knowledge provided here and implement the risk management process in workshops with rangeland land managers. Their participation is likely to identify relevant and robust adaptive responses that are most likely to be included in regional and property management decisions. The process developed here for the grazing industry could be modified and used in other industries and sectors. By 2030, some areas of northern Australia will experience more droughts and lower summer rainfall. This poses a serious threat to the rangelands. Although the impacts and adaptive responses will vary between ecological and geographic systems, climate change is expected to have noticeable detrimental effects: reduced pasture growth and surface water availability; increased competition from woody vegetation; decreased production per head (beef and wool) and gross margin; and adverse impacts on biodiversity. Further research and development is needed to identify the most vulnerable regions, and to inform policy in time to facilitate transitional change and enable land managers to implement those changes

Climate Change in Queensland's Grazing Lands: II. An Assessment of the Impact on Animal Production From Native Pastures

The 160 million ha of grazing land in Queensland support approximately 10 million beef equivalents (9.8 million cattle and 10.7 million sheep) with treed and cleared native pastures as the major forage source. The complexity of these biophysical systems and their interaction with pasture and stock management, economic and social forces limits our ability to easily calculate the impact of climate change scenarios. We report the application of a systems approach in simulating the flow of plant dry matter and utilisation of forage by animals. Our review of available models highlighted the lack of suitable mechanistic models and the potential role of simple empirical relationships of utilisation and animal production derived from climatic and soil indices. Plausible climate change scenarios were evaluated by using a factorial of rainfall (f 10%) * 3260C temperature increase * doubling CO, in sensitivity studies at property, regional and State scales. Simulation of beef cattle liveweight gain at three locations in the Queensland black speargrass zone showed that a *lo% change in rainfall was magnified to be a f 15% change in animal production (liveweight gain per ha) depending on location, temperature and CO, change. Models of 'safe' carrying capacity were developed from property data and expert opinion. Climate change impacts on 'safe' carrying capacity varied considerably across the State depending on whether moisture, temperature or nutrients were the limiting factors. Without the effect of doubling CO,, warmer temperatures and +lo% changes in rainfall resulted in -35 to +70% changes in 'safe' carrying capacity depending on location. With the effect of doubling CO, included, the changes in 'safe' carrying capacity ranged from -12 to +115% across scenarios and locations. When aggregated to a whole-of-State carrying capacity, the combined effects of warmer temperature, doubling CO, and +lo% changes in rainfall resulted in 'safe' carrying capacity changes of +3 to +45% depending on rainfall scenario and location. A major finding of the sensitivity study was the potential importance of doubling CO, in mitigating or amplifying the effects of warmer temperatures and changes in rainfall. Field studies on the impact of CO, are therefore a high research priority. Keywords: climate change, Queensland, simulation, rangelands, beef production, cattle, carrying capacity, CO,, utilisatio

Neutrino Propagation in a Strongly Magnetized Medium

We derive general expressions at the one-loop level for the coefficients of the covariant structure of the neutrino self-energy in the presence of a constant magnetic field. The neutrino energy spectrum and index of refraction are obtained for neutral and charged media in the strong-field limit ($M_{W}\gg \sqrt{B}\gg m_{e},T,\mu ,| \mathbf{p}|$) using the lowest Landau level approximation. The results found within the lowest Landau level approximation are numerically validated, summing in all Landau levels, for strong $B\gg T^{2}$ and weakly-strong $B \gtrsim T^{2}$ fields. The neutrino energy in leading order of the Fermi coupling constant is expressed as the sum of three terms: a kinetic-energy term, a term of interaction between the magnetic field and an induced neutrino magnetic moment, and a rest-energy term. The leading radiative correction to the kinetic-energy term depends linearly on the magnetic field strength and is independent of the chemical potential. The other two terms are only present in a charged medium. For strong and weakly-strong fields, it is found that the field-dependent correction to the neutrino energy in a neutral medium is much larger than the thermal one. Possible applications to cosmology and astrophysics are considered.Comment: 23 pages, 4 figures. Corrected misprints in reference

Effect of seasonal conditions on fleece weight and its components in merino sheep grazing Mitchell grass pasture in North West Queensland

SUMMARY Seasonal conditions in the pre to post natal period and selected periods before and during wool growth were described using climatic measures and estimates of the quality and quantity of pasture on offer derived from a validated pasture production model (GRASP). The variation in greasy and clean fleece weight, yield, staple length, fibre diameter, neck and side wrinkle score of Merinos grazing Mitchell grass in north west Queensland was explained in terms of these pasture and climatic measures and animal characteristics such as reproductive status, age and skin area. Multiple regression equations predicting clean and greasy fleece weight from the proportion of days in the wool growth period that the green pool in the pasture was less than one kg/ha, the percentage utilisation of the pasture, age, reproductive status and skin area of the ewes explained 87% and 79% of the variation respectively. Equations with similar predictors explained 58-85% of the variation of the other components. The inclusion of pasture conditions in the pre to post natal period did not significantly improve the predictions of the animal’s later performance. 22nd Biennial Conference

Evaluating the risks of pasture and land degradation in native pastures in Queensland

The objective of the project was to develop an approach to quantify the risks of land nd pasture degradation. This objective was achieved by developing an operational model of the condition of native pastures in Queensland. The results of the project showed that: 1) historical and current pasture data can be used with models to simulate grazing lands in near real-time; 2) spatial models of production can be developed and validated with existing spatial data and monitoring systems; 3) data from graziers indicate that safe utilisation rates are 15-25% of average pasture growth; 4) relative risks of land and pasture can be quantified from simulations using actual numbers compared to safe stocking rates; and 5) case studies using the pasture growth model and models of grazing feedback on pasture and land degradation to evaluate the economic consequences of stocking rate strategies have been used in other projects (e.g. DroughtPlan: McKeon et al. 1996, Stafford Smith et al. 1996)