Just in Time: The Beyond-the-Hype Potential of E-Learning

Based on a year of conversations with more than 100 leading thinkers, practitioners, and entrepreneurs, this report explores the state of e-learning and the potential it offers across all sectors of our economy -- far beyond the confines of formal education. Whether you're a leader, worker in the trenches, or just a curious learner, imagine being able to access exactly what you need, when you need it, in a format that's quick and easy to digest and apply. Much of this is now possible and within the next decade, just-in-time learning will likely become pervasive.This report aims to inspire you to consider how e-learning could change the way you, your staff, and the people you serve transfer knowledge and adapt over time

Verità Potere Giustizia. Prolegomeni a una lettura di “Effetto Sicilia” di Carlo Alberto Madrignani

The paper discusses the final work (Effetto Sicilia, 2007) of one of the most significant scholars of Italian modern novel, Carlo Alberto Madrignani (1936-2008), by focusing on the interaction between three historical, literary and intellectual elements: 1) the scientifically rigorous civil tradition Madrignani belonged to, 2) the peculiar realistic code which arose in Sicily after the Italian unification and has been constantly renewed till our times in an astonishing, problematic continuity, 3) the Italian conflictual and dramatic modernity which triggered the birth of Sicilian modern novel and at the same time is provoked by the ‘outrageous’ kind of literature. The key issues of both the literary tradition and Italian modern history are 1) the violent and ambiguous sociopo litical control on collective and individual bodies (especially female), 2) the ambivalence of myth 3) the contradiction between individual and collective expectations on one side and institutions on the other 4) the uncertainty of trutdthe dissolution of theological and religious compensations.The paper discusses the final work (Effetto Sicilia, 2007) of one of the most significant scholars of Italian modern novel, Carlo Alberto Madrignani (1936-2008), by focusing on the interaction between three historical, literary and intellectual elements: 1) the scientifically rigorous civil tradition Madrignani belonged to, 2) the peculiar realistic code which arose in Sicily after the Italian unification and has been constantly renewed till our times in an astonishing, problematic continuity, 3) the Italian conflictual and dramatic modernity which triggered the birth of Sicilian modern novel and at the same time is provoked by the ‘outrageous’ kind of literature. The key issues of both the literary tradition and Italian modern history are 1) the violent and ambiguous sociopo litical control on collective and individual bodies (especially female), 2) the ambivalence of myth 3) the contradiction between individual and collective expectations on one side and institutions on the other 4) the uncertainty of trutdthe dissolution of theological and religious compensations

Machiavelli e Machiavellismo nello Herder della seconda metà degli anni sessanta

This paper deals with Herder’s first acquaintance with Machiavelli and Machiavellianism. To achieve this end, it analyzes Herder's relevant writings (Haben wir noch jetzt das Publikum und Vaterland der Alten? and Journal meiner Reise im Jahr 1769) and his sources (Frederick the Great’s controversial Anti-Machiavell as well as David Hume’s radical History of Natural Religion). As a result, two issues arise which characterize Herder's enduring interest in Machiavelli’s work and personality as well as his aftermath from the second half of the 1760s onwards: 1) Frederick the Great’s machiavellianist antimachiavellianism: 2) the model of ancient-Rome civil religion and its adaptation to modern times

A deep learning integrated Lee-Carter model

In the field of mortality, the Lee–Carter based approach can be considered the milestone to forecast mortality rates among stochastic models. We could define a “Lee–Carter model family” that embraces all developments of this model, including its first formulation (1992) that remains the benchmark for comparing the performance of future models. In the Lee–Carter model, the kt parameter, describing the mortality trend over time, plays an important role about the future mortality behavior. The traditional ARIMA process usually used to model kt shows evident limitations to describe the future mortality shape. Concerning forecasting phase, academics should approach a more plausible way in order to think a nonlinear shape of the projected mortality rates. Therefore, we propose an alternative approach the ARIMA processes based on a deep learning technique. More precisely, in order to catch the pattern of kt series over time more accurately, we apply a Recurrent Neural Network with a Long Short-Term Memory architecture and integrate the Lee–Carter model to improve its predictive capacity. The proposed approach provides significant performance in terms of predictive accuracy and also allow for avoiding the time-chunks’ a priori selection. Indeed, it is a common practice among academics to delete the time in which the noise is overflowing or the data quality is insufficient. The strength of the Long Short-Term Memory network lies in its ability to treat this noise and adequately reproduce it into the forecasted trend, due to its own architecture enabling to take into account significant long-term patterns

Backtesting stochastic mortality models by prediction interval-based metrics

Human lifespan increments represent one of the main current risks for governments and pension and health benefts providers. Longevity societies imply fnancial sustainability challenges to guarantee adequate socioeconomic conditions for all individuals for a longer period. Consequently, modelling population dynamics and projecting future longevity scenarios are vital tasks for policymakers. As an answer, the demographic and the actuarial literature have been introduced and compared to several stochastic mortality models, although few studies have thoroughly tested the uncertainty concerning mortality projections. Forecasting mortality uncertainty levels have a central role since they reveal the potential, unexpected longevity rise and the related economic impact. Therefore, the present study poses a methodological framework to backtest uncertainty in mortality projections by exploiting uncertainty metrics not yet adopted in mortality literature. Using the data from the Human Mortality Database of the male and female populations of five countries, we present some numerical applications to illustrate how the proposed criterion works. The results show that there is no mortality model overperforming the others in all cases, and the best model choice depends on the data considered

Supporto alla corretta gestione dei dati all’Università di Bologna

Supporto alla corretta gestione dei dati all’Università di Bologna: come gestire i dati della ricerca, professioni di supporto, Data Steward, strategie, azioni, tipologie, Data Management Plan, percorsi e strumenti di support

Konflikt polityczny i natura ludzka: Machiavellego rozważania nad starożytną Republiką Rzymską i nowożytną Florencją oraz ich wpływ na współczesną świadomość demokratyczną

The present paper stresses from a philological and anthropological point of view Machiavelli’s potential for thinking and practicing democracy in modern times. The first part disputes some Machiavellian myths, philologically demonstrating for example that Machiavelli never thought that ‘end justifies the means’. The second part brings to light the anthropological fundamentals of Machiavelli’s theory of political conflicts: special attention is paid to the doctrine of the opposite tendencies within the political bodies (the wish to command and the wish not to obey, the desire of oppressing and that of not to be oppressed) as well as to the theory of anthropological roots of ambition. The third and final part compares Machiavelli’s anthropological theory of political conflicts with both Marx’s economic interpretation of political conflicts and German philosophical anthropological explanation of human nature (Gehlen, Scheler, Plessner)