The "analysis of competing hypotheses" in intelligence analysis

The intelligence community uses ‘structured analytic techniques’ to help analysts think critically and avoid cognitive bias. However, little evidence exists of how techniques are applied and whether they are effective. We examined the use of the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) – a technique designed to reduce ‘confirmation bias’. Fifty intelligence analysts were randomly assigned to use ACH or not when completing a hypothesis testing task that had probabilistic ground truth. Data on analysts’ judgment processes and conclusions was collected using written protocols that were then coded for statistical analyses. We found that ACH-trained analysts did not follow all of the steps of ACH. There was mixed evidence for ACH’s ability to reduce confirmation bias, and we observed that ACH may increase judgment inconsistency and error. It may be prudent for the intelligence community to consider the conditions under which ACH would prove useful, and to explore alternatives

Towards Rapid Parameter Estimation on Gravitational Waves from Compact Binaries using Interpolated Waveforms

Accurate parameter estimation of gravitational waves from coalescing compact binary sources is a key requirement for gravitational-wave astronomy. Evaluating the posterior probability density function of the binary's parameters (component masses, sky location, distance, etc.) requires computing millions of waveforms. The computational expense of parameter estimation is dominated by waveform generation and scales linearly with the waveform computational cost. Previous work showed that gravitational waveforms from non-spinning compact binary sources are amenable to a truncated singular value decomposition, which allows them to be reconstructed via interpolation at fixed computational cost. However, the accuracy requirement for parameter estimation is typically higher than for searches, so it is crucial to ascertain that interpolation does not lead to significant errors. Here we provide a proof of principle to show that interpolated waveforms can be used to recover posterior probability density functions with negligible loss in accuracy with respect to non-interpolated waveforms. This technique has the potential to significantly increase the efficiency of parameter estimation.Comment: 7 pages, 2 figure

Report on the first round of the Mock LISA Data Challenges

The Mock LISA Data Challenges (MLDCs) have the dual purpose of fostering the development of LISA data analysis tools and capabilities, and demonstrating the technical readiness already achieved by the gravitational-wave community in distilling a rich science payoff from the LISA data output. The first round of MLDCs has just been completed: nine challenges consisting of data sets containing simulated gravitational-wave signals produced either by galactic binaries or massive black hole binaries embedded in simulated LISA instrumental noise were released in June 2006 with deadline for submission of results at the beginning of December 2006. Ten groups have participated in this first round of challenges. All of the challenges had at least one entry which successfully characterized the signal to better than 95% when assessed via a correlation with phasing ambiguities accounted for. Here, we describe the challenges, summarize the results and provide a first critical assessment of the entries

Gaussian-State Theory of Two-Photon Imaging

Biphoton states of signal and idler fields--obtained from spontaneous parametric downconversion (SPDC) in the low-brightness, low-flux regime--have been utilized in several quantum imaging configurations to exceed the resolution performance of conventional imagers that employ coherent-state or thermal light. Recent work--using the full Gaussian-state description of SPDC--has shown that the same resolution performance seen in quantum optical coherence tomography and the same imaging characteristics found in quantum ghost imaging can be realized by classical-state imagers that make use of phase-sensitive cross correlations. This paper extends the Gaussian-state analysis to two additional biphoton-state quantum imaging scenarios: far field diffraction-pattern imaging; and broadband thin-lens imaging. It is shown that the spatial resolution behavior in both cases is controlled by the nonzero phase-sensitive cross correlation between the signal and idler fields. Thus, the same resolution can be achieved in these two configurations with classical-state signal and idler fields possessing a nonzero phase-sensitive cross correlation.Comment: 14 pages, 5 figure

BDDC and FETI-DP under Minimalist Assumptions

The FETI-DP, BDDC and P-FETI-DP preconditioners are derived in a particulary simple abstract form. It is shown that their properties can be obtained from only on a very small set of algebraic assumptions. The presentation is purely algebraic and it does not use any particular definition of method components, such as substructures and coarse degrees of freedom. It is then shown that P-FETI-DP and BDDC are in fact the same. The FETI-DP and the BDDC preconditioned operators are of the same algebraic form, and the standard condition number bound carries over to arbitrary abstract operators of this form. The equality of eigenvalues of BDDC and FETI-DP also holds in the minimalist abstract setting. The abstract framework is explained on a standard substructuring example.Comment: 11 pages, 1 figure, also available at http://www-math.cudenver.edu/ccm/reports

Quantum Monte Carlo study of ring-shaped polariton parametric luminescence in a semiconductor microcavity

We present a quantum Monte Carlo study of the quantum correlations in the parametric luminescence from semiconductor microcavities in the strong exciton-photon coupling regime. As already demonstrated in recent experiments, a ring-shaped emission is obtained by applying two identical pump beams with opposite in-plane wavevectors, providing symmetrical signal and idler beams with opposite in-plane wavevectors on the ring. We study the squeezing of the signal-idler difference noise across the parametric instability threshold, accounting for the radiative and non-radiative losses, multiple scattering and static disorder. We compare the results of the complete multimode Monte Carlo simulations with a simplified linearized quantum Langevin analytical model

Double Compact Objects III: Gravitational Wave Detection Rates

The unprecedented range of second-generation gravitational-wave (GW) observatories calls for refining the predictions of potential sources and detection rates. The coalescence of double compact objects (DCOs)---i.e., neutron star-neutron star (NS-NS), black hole-neutron star (BH-NS), and black hole-black hole (BH-BH) binary systems---is the most promising source of GWs for these detectors. We compute detection rates of coalescing DCOs in second-generation GW detectors using the latest models for their cosmological evolution, and implementing inspiral-merger-ringdown (IMR) gravitational waveform models in our signal-to-noise ratio calculations. We find that: (1) the inclusion of the merger/ringdown portion of the signal does not significantly affect rates for NS-NS and BH-NS systems, but it boosts rates by a factor $\sim 1.5$ for BH-BH systems; (2) in almost all of our models BH-BH systems yield by far the largest rates, followed by NS-NS and BH-NS systems, respectively, and (3) a majority of the detectable BH-BH systems were formed in the early Universe in low-metallicity environments. We make predictions for the distributions of detected binaries and discuss what the first GW detections will teach us about the astrophysics underlying binary formation and evolution.Comment: published in ApJ, 19 pages, 11 figure

Photon-added coherent states as nonlinear coherent states

The states $|\alpha,m>$, defined as ${a^{\dagger}}^{m}|\alpha>$ up to a normalization constant and $m$ is a nonnegative integer, are shown to be the eigenstates of $f(\hat{n},m)\hat{a}$ where $f(\hat{n},m)$ is a nonlinear function of the number operator $\hat{n}$. The explicit form of $f(\hat{n},m)$ is constructed. The eigenstates of this operator for negative values of $m$ are introduced. The properties of these states are discussed and compared with those of the state $|\alpha,m >$.Comment: Rev Tex file with two figures as postscript files attached. Email: [email protected]

Quantum bistability and spin current shot noise of a single quantum dot coupled to an optical microcavity

Here we explore spin dependent quantum transport through a single quantum dot coupled to an optical microcavity. The spin current is generated by electron tunneling between a single doped reservoir and the dot combined with intradot spin flip transitions induced by a quantized cavity mode. In the limit of strong Coulomb blockade, this model is analogous to the Jaynes-Cummings model in quantum optics and generates a pure spin current in the absence of any charge current. Earlier research has shown that in the classical limit where a large number of such dots interact with the cavity field, the spin current exhibits bistability as a function of the laser amplitude that drives the cavity. We show that in the limit of a single quantum dot this bistability continues to be present in the intracavity photon statistics. Signatures of the bistable photon statistics manifest themselves in the frequency dependent shot noise of the spin current despite the fact that the quantum mechanical average spin current no longer exhibits bistability. Besides having significance for future quantum dot based optoelectronic devices, our results shed light on the relation between bistability, which is traditionally viewed as a classical effect, and quantum mechanics