Past dynamics of HIV transmission among men who have sex with men in Montréal, Canada: a mathematical modeling study

BACKGROUND: Gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (gbMSM) experience disproportionate risks of HIV acquisition and transmission. In 2017, Montréal became the first Canadian Fast-Track City, setting the 2030 goal of zero new HIV infections. To inform local elimination efforts, we estimate the evolving role of prevention and sexual behaviours on HIV transmission dynamics among gbMSM in Montréal between 1975 and 2019. METHODS: Data from local bio-behavioural surveys were analyzed to develop, parameterize, and calibrate an agent-based model of sexual HIV transmission. Partnership dynamics, HIV's natural history, and treatment and prevention strategies were considered. The model simulations were analyzed to estimate the fraction of HIV acquisitions and transmissions attributable to specific groups, with a focus on age, sexual partnering level, and gaps in the HIV care-continuum. RESULTS: The model-estimated HIV incidence peaked in 1985 (2.3 per 100 person years (PY); 90% CrI: 1.4-2.9 per 100 PY) and decreased to 0.1 per 100 PY (90% CrI: 0.04-0.3 per 100 PY) in 2019. Between 2000-2017, the majority of HIV acquisitions and transmissions occurred among men aged 25-44 years, and men aged 35-44 thereafter. The unmet prevention needs of men with > 10 annual anal sex partners contributed 90-93% of transmissions and 67-73% of acquisitions annually. The primary stage of HIV played an increasing role over time, contributing to 11-22% of annual transmissions over 2000-2019. In 2019, approximately 70% of transmission events occurred from men who had discontinued, or never initiated antiretroviral therapy. CONCLUSIONS: The evolving HIV landscape has contributed to the declining HIV incidence among gbMSM in Montréal. The shifting dynamics identified in this study highlight the need for continued population-level surveillance to identify gaps in the HIV care continuum and core groups on which to prioritize elimination efforts

The association between heterosexual anal intercourse and HIV acquisition in three prospective cohorts of women

The extent to which receptive anal intercourse (RAI) increases the HIV acquisition risk of women compared to receptive vaginal intercourse (RVI) is poorly understood. We evaluated RAI practice over time and its association with HIV incidence during three prospective HIV cohorts of women: RV217, MTN-003 (VOICE), and HVTN 907. At baseline, 16% (RV 217), 18% (VOICE) of women reported RAI in the past 3 months and 27% (HVTN 907) in the past 6 months, with RAI declining during follow-up by around 3-fold. HIV incidence in the three cohorts was positively associated with reporting RAI at baseline, albeit not always significantly. The adjusted hazard rate ratios for potential confounders (aHR) were 1.1 (95% Confidence interval: 0.8-1.5) for VOICE and 3.3 (1.6-6.8) for RV 217, whereas the ratio of cumulative HIV incidence by RAI practice was 1.9 (0.6-6.0) for HVTN 907. For VOICE, the estimated magnitude of association increased slightly when using a time-varying RAI exposure definition (aHR = 1.2; 0.9-1.6), and for women reporting RAI at every follow-up survey (aHR = 2.0 (1.3-3.1)), though not for women reporting higher RAI frequency (> 30% acts being RAI vs. no RAI in the past 3 months; aHR = 0.7 (0.4-1.1)). Findings indicated precise estimation of the RAI/HIV association, following multiple RVI/RAI exposures, is sensitive to RAI exposure definition, which remain imperfectly measured. Information on RAI practices, RAI/RVI frequency, and condom use should be more systematically and precisely recorded and reported in studies looking at sexual behaviors and HIV seroconversions; standardized measures would aid comparability across geographies and over time

How Can Progress Toward Ending the Human Immunodeficiency Virus Epidemic in the United States Be Monitored?

The plan for Ending the HIV (human immunodeficiency virus) Epidemic (EHE) in the United States aims to reduce new infections by 75% by 2025 and by 90% by 2030. For EHE to be successful, it is important to accurately measure changes in numbers of new HIV infections after 5 and 10 years (to determine whether the EHE goals have been achieved) but also over shorter timescales (to monitor progress and intensify prevention efforts if required). In this viewpoint, we aim to demonstrate why the method used to monitor progress toward the EHE goals must be carefully considered. We briefly describe and discuss different methods to estimate numbers of new HIV infections based on longitudinal cohort studies, cross-sectional incidence surveys, and routine surveillance data. We particularly focus on identifying conditions under which unadjusted and adjusted estimates based on routine surveillance data can be used to estimate changes in new HIV infections

Impact of Community-Based Larviciding on the Prevalence of Malaria Infection in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.

The use of larval source management is not prioritized by contemporary malaria control programs in sub-Saharan Africa despite historical success. Larviciding, in particular, could be effective in urban areas where transmission is focal and accessibility to Anopheles breeding habitats is generally easier than in rural settings. The objective of this study is to assess the effectiveness of a community-based microbial larviciding intervention to reduce the prevalence of malaria infection in Dar es Salaam, United Republic of Tanzania. Larviciding was implemented in 3 out of 15 targeted wards of Dar es Salaam in 2006 after two years of baseline data collection. This intervention was subsequently scaled up to 9 wards a year later, and to all 15 targeted wards in 2008. Continuous randomized cluster sampling of malaria prevalence and socio-demographic characteristics was carried out during 6 survey rounds (2004-2008), which included both cross-sectional and longitudinal data (N = 64,537). Bayesian random effects logistic regression models were used to quantify the effect of the intervention on malaria prevalence at the individual level. Effect size estimates suggest a significant protective effect of the larviciding intervention. After adjustment for confounders, the odds of individuals living in areas treated with larviciding being infected with malaria were 21% lower (Odds Ratio = 0.79; 95% Credible Intervals: 0.66-0.93) than those who lived in areas not treated. The larviciding intervention was most effective during dry seasons and had synergistic effects with other protective measures such as use of insecticide-treated bed nets and house proofing (i.e., complete ceiling or window screens). A large-scale community-based larviciding intervention significantly reduced the prevalence of malaria infection in urban Dar es Salaam

A population-based cross-sectional study of age-specific risk factors for high risk human papillomavirus prevalence in rural Nigeria

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Cervical cancer, caused by persistent infection with carcinogenic human papillomavirus (HR-HPV), is particularly prevalent in Sub-Saharan Africa and is associated with a high mortality rate. Some studies in West Africa, including our own, have found unusually high HR-HPV across all ages with a slight peak in older women. This increased prevalence at older ages may complicate screen-and-treat programs, which are implemented in regions where HPV prevalence declines with age and typically target women between 30-49 years. A better understanding of the determinants of high HR-HPV prevalence at older ages is needed. The goal of this study is to explore risk factors for HR-HPV prevalence by age among women in our population-based study in Irun, a rural town in southwestern Nigeria.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>1,420 women were administered a clinic-based questionnaire regarding sexual and reproductive behavior, marital status (including co-wives), and malaria exposure. Logistic regression compared questionnaire responses and PCR positivity for a set of 13 carcinogenic HR-HPV types. Results were stratified by age (15-29, 30-45, 46-55, and 56+ years).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Birth control use and age at first pregnancy were associated with HR-HPV (<it>p-value </it>= 0.03 and 0.05, respectively). Early age at sexual debut and multiple sex partners were risks for HR-HPV, but did not reach significance (<it>p-value </it>= 0.1 and 0.07, respectively). Neither self-reported malaria nor presence of co-wives in the household was associated with HR-HPV (<it>p-value </it>= 0.85 and 0.24, respectively). In age sub-categories, early age at sexual debut was a significant risk factor for HR-HPV among women 35-45 years (<it>p-value = 0.02</it>). Early age at first pregnancy remained a significant risk factor for women aged 56+ years (<it>p-value </it>= 0.04). Greater than 2 sex partners and use of birth control were associated (though not significantly) with HR-HPV in women aged 30-45 (<it>p-value </it>= 0.08, respectively).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>In this high-risk region with elevated HR-HPV prevalence at older ages, we confirmed previously described, behavioral determinants of HR-HPV. There was no association with self-reported malaria or co-wives, which we had hypothesized might correlate with HR-HPV at older ages.</p

Is no news good news? Inconclusive genetic test results in BRCA1 and BRCA2 from patients and professionals' perspectives

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Women from families with a high risk of breast or ovarian cancer in which genetic testing for mutations in the <it>BRCA1/2 </it>genes is inconclusive are a vulnerable and understudied group. Furthermore, there are no studies of the professional specialists who treat them - geneticists, genetic counsellors/nurses, oncologists, gynaecologists and breast surgeons.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We conducted a small qualitative study that investigated women who had developed breast cancer under the age of 45 and who had an inconclusive <it>BRCA1/2 </it>genetic diagnostic test (where no mutations or unclassified variants were identified). We arranged three focus groups for affected women and their close female relatives - 13 women took part. We also interviewed 12 health professionals who were involved in the care of these women.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The majority of the women had a good grasp of the meaning of their own or a family member's inconclusive result, but a few indicated some misunderstanding. Most of the women in this study underwent the test for the benefit of others in the family and none mentioned that they were having the test purely for themselves. A difficult issue for sisters of affected women was whether or not to undertake prophylactic breast surgery. The professionals were sensitive to the difficulties in explaining an inconclusive result. Some felt frustrated that technology had not as yet provided them with a better tool for prediction of risk.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Some of the women were left with the dilemma of what decision to make regarding medical management of their cancer risk. For the most part, the professionals believed that the women should be supported in whatever management decisions they considered best, provided these decisions were based on a complete and accurate understanding of the genetic test that had taken place in the family.</p

Assessing the potential impact of disruptions due to COVID-19 on HIV among key and lower-risk populations in the largest cities of Cameroon and Benin

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic indirectly impacts HIV epidemiology in Central/West Africa. We estimated the potential impact of COVID-19-related disruptions to HIV prevention/treatment services and sexual partnerships on HIV incidence and HIV-related deaths among key populations including female sex workers (FSW), their clients, men who have sex with men (MSM), and overall. Setting: Yaoundé (Cameroon) and Cotonou (Benin). Methods: We used mathematical models of HIV calibrated to city- and risk-population-specific demographic/behavioural/epidemic data. We estimated the relative change in 1-year HIV incidence and HIV-related deaths for various disruption scenarios of HIV prevention/treatment services and decreased casual/commercial partnerships, compared to a scenario without COVID-19. Results: A 50% reduction in condom use in all partnerships over 6 months would increase 1-year HIV incidence by 39%, 42%, 31% and 23% among MSM, FSW, clients, and overall in Yaoundé respectively, and 69%, 49% and 23% among FSW, clients and overall respectively in Cotonou. Combining a 6-month interruption of ART initiation and 50% reduction in HIV prevention/treatment use would increase HIV incidence by 50% and HIV-related deaths by 20%. This increase in HIV infections would be halved by a simultaneous 50% reduction in casual and commercial partnerships. Conclusions: Reductions in condom use following COVID-19 would increase infections among key populations disproportionately, particularly FSW in Cotonou, who need uninterrupted condom provision. Disruptions in HIV prevention/treatment services have the biggest impacts on HIV infections and deaths overall, only partially mitigated by equal reductions in casual/commercial sexual partnerships. Maintaining ART provision must be prioritised to minimise short-term excess HIV-related deaths