Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings: The global TFR decreased from 2•72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2•66–2•79) in 2000 to 2•31 (2•17–2•46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134•5 million (131•5–137•8) in 2000 to a peak of 139•6 million (133•0–146•9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135•3 million (127•2–144•1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2•1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27•1% (95% UI 26•4–27•8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67•2 years (95% UI 66•8–67•6) in 2000 to 73•5 years (72•8–74•3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50•7 million (49•5–51•9) in 2000 to 56•5 million (53•7–59•2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9•6 million (9•1–10•3) in 2000 to 5•0 million (4•3–6•0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25•7%, from 6•2 billion (6•0–6•3) in 2000 to 7•7 billion (7•5–8•0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58•6 years (56•1–60•8) in 2000 to 63•5 years (60•8–66•1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019. Interpretation: Over the past 20 years, fertility rates have been dropping steadily and life expectancy has been increasing, with few exceptions. Much of this change follows historical patterns linking social and economic determinants, such as those captured by the GBD Socio-demographic Index, with demographic outcomes. More recently, several countries have experienced a combination of low fertility and stagnating improvement in mortality rates, pushing more populations into the late stages of the demographic transition. Tracking demographic change and the emergence of new patterns will be essential for global health monitoring. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990�2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease. Methods: GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk�outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk�outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk�outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden. Findings: The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95 uncertainty interval UI 9·51�12·1) deaths (19·2% 16·9�21·3 of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12�9·31) deaths (15·4% 14·6�16·2 of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253�350) DALYs (11·6% 10·3�13·1 of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0�9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10�24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25�49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50�74 years and 75 years and older. Interpretation: Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Mapping local patterns of childhood overweight and wasting in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017

A double burden of malnutrition occurs when individuals, household members or communities experience both undernutrition and overweight. Here, we show geospatial estimates of overweight and wasting prevalence among children under 5 years of age in 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2017 and aggregate these to policy-relevant administrative units. Wasting decreased overall across LMICs between 2000 and 2017, from 8.4 (62.3 (55.1�70.8) million) to 6.4 (58.3 (47.6�70.7) million), but is predicted to remain above the World Health Organization�s Global Nutrition Target of <5 in over half of LMICs by 2025. Prevalence of overweight increased from 5.2 (30 (22.8�38.5) million) in 2000 to 6.0 (55.5 (44.8�67.9) million) children aged under 5 years in 2017. Areas most affected by double burden of malnutrition were located in Indonesia, Thailand, southeastern China, Botswana, Cameroon and central Nigeria. Our estimates provide a new perspective to researchers, policy makers and public health agencies in their efforts to address this global childhood syndemic. © 2020, The Author(s)

Author Correction: Mapping local patterns of childhood overweight and wasting in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017 (Nature Medicine, (2020), 26, 5, (750-759), 10.1038/s41591-020-0807-6)

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper. © 2020, The Author(s)

Author Correction: Mapping local patterns of childhood overweight and wasting in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017 (Nature Medicine, (2020), 26, 5, (750-759), 10.1038/s41591-020-0807-6)

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper. © 2020, The Author(s)

Study of polyacrylamide-surfactant system on the water–oil interface properties and rheological properties for EOR

Nowadays, due to the remarkable oil reduction in oil fields, enhanced oil recovery (EOR) techniques have been considered by a large number of scientists and company. Situ oil extraction is normally done by these techniques with high efficiency. In this particular study, five different surface active agents (surfactant), two kinds of oil with various API, two kinds of sulfonated polyacrylamide, two different electrolyte solutions with various TDS and two distinctive alcohols were tested and evaluated. An optimal formulation in terms of the properties and quantity of materials has to be used in order to enhance oil recovery, achieved by investigation of surface tension and the phase behavior of mentioned substances. Rheological behavior of polymer flooding and surfactant was studied. Employing this formulation, the maximum micro emulsion of oil in water occurred. Due to the synergy between surfactant and alcohol (as a co-surfactant), relatively lower amounts of surfactants were used which led to the dip in the cost of operation, and ultimately the efficiency of operation improved

Doped and un-doped cerium oxide nanoparticles: Biosynthesis, characterization, and cytotoxic study

Using a simple and environmentally friendly method, un-doped and 1 and 5 cadmium doped cerium oxide nanoparticles (Cd doped CeO2 NPs) were prepared through Salvadora persica aqueous extract in the present study. The synthesized nanoparticles were confirmed by Powder X-ray diffraction (PXRD), Field Emission Scanning Electron Microscopy (FESEM), Energy Dispersive X-ray (EDX), Ultraviolet�Visible (UV�Vis), and Raman methods. Due to the results of PXRD, EDX, and UV�Vis, cadmium is well doped in cerium oxide structure. The results of FESEM showed that the synthesized nanoparticles are spherical and have an average size of 10�20 nm. The toxicity effect of synthesized un-doped and Cd doped CeO2 NPs on breast cancer (MCF-7) cell line was investigated using WST-1 test. Compared to doxorubicin as control, the results showed that the un-doped cerium oxide nanoparticles had more cytotoxicity compared with those of the doped nanoparticles and doxorubicin. © 2021 Elsevier Ltd and Techna Group S.r.l

The Hippo Tumor Suppressor Pathway (YAP/TAZ/TEAD/MST/LATS) and EGFR-RAS-RAF-MEK in cancer metastasis

Hippo Tumor Suppressor Pathway is the main pathway for cell growth that regulates tissue enlargement and organ size by limiting cell growth. This pathway is activated in response to cell cycle arrest signals (cell polarity, transduction, and DNA damage) and limited by growth factors or mitogens associated with EGF and LPA. The major pathway consists of the central kinase of Ste20 MAPK (Saccharomyces cerevisiae), Hpo (Drosophila melanogaster) or MST kinases (mammalian) that activates the mammalian AGC kinase dmWts or LATS effector (MST and LATS). YAP in the nucleus work as a cofactor for a wide range of transcription factors involved in proliferation (TEA domain family, TEAD1-4), stem cells (Oct4 mononuclear factor and SMAD-related TGFβ effector), differentiation (RUNX1), and Cell cycle/apoptosis control (p53, p63, and p73 family members). This is due to the diverse roles of YAP and may limit tumor progression and establishment. TEAD also coordinates various signal transduction pathways such as Hippo, WNT, TGFβ and EGFR, and effects on lack of regulation of TEAD cancerous genes, such as KRAS, BRAF, LKB1, NF2 and MYC, which play essential roles in tumor progression, metastasis, cancer metabolism, immunity, and drug resistance. However, RAS signaling is a pivotal factor in the inactivation of Hippo, which controls EGFR-RAS-RAF-MEK-ERK-mediated interaction of Hippo signaling. Thus, the loss of the Hippo pathway may have significant consequences on the targets of RAS-RAF mutations in cancersem informaçãosem informaçã

Serum concentration of asprosin in new-onset type 2 diabetes

Background: Asprosin, a newly identified adipokine, is pathologically increased in individuals with insulin resistance. However, the available evidence on the association of asprosin and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) status is still scarce. Therefore, this study aimed to determine the relationship between serum concentrations of asprosin and T2DM status. Methods: This observational study was performed based on 194 adults (97 newly diagnosed T2DM and 97 healthy individuals). Anthropometric and biochemical variables were determined in all participants. Serum concentrations of asprosin were measured using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Results: In patients with T2DM, the serum concentrations of asprosin were significantly higher than the healthy controls (4.18 IQR: 4.4 vs. 3.5 IQR: 1.85, P < 0.001). The concentrations of asprosin were significantly correlated with body mass index (BMI) and fasting blood glucose (FBG) in healthy subjects and with BMI, FBG, hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), and quantitative insulin check index (QUICKI), triacylglycerol (TAG) and total cholesterol/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (TC/HDL-C) ratio in the T2DM group. In fully adjusted model, the odds ratio (OR) of T2DM with serum concentrations of asprosin was approximately 1.547 (95% CI 1.293-1.850, P < 0.001) compared to the control group. Multiple stepwise regression analysis indicated that FBG and HOMA-IR were independently associated with asprosin in T2DM. Conclusion: Our findings indicated that serum concentrations of asprosin are increased in patients with T2DM. Also, asprosin is correlated with insulin resistance and TC/HDL-C ratio (atherosclerotic risk factor of cardiovascular diseases) in patients with T2DM. © 2020 The Author(s)