The State of Self-Organized Criticality of the Sun During the Last Three Solar Cycles. II. Theoretical Model

The observed powerlaw distributions of solar flare parameters can be interpreted in terms of a nonlinear dissipative system in the state of self-organized criticality (SOC). We present a universal analytical model of a SOC process that is governed by three conditions: (i) a multiplicative or exponential growth phase, (ii) a randomly interrupted termination of the growth phase, and (iii) a linear decay phase. This basic concept approximately reproduces the observed frequency distributions. We generalize it to a randomized exponential-growth model, which includes also a (log-normal) distribution of threshold energies before the instability starts, as well as randomized decay times, which can reproduce both the observed occurrence frequency distributions and the scatter of correlated parametyers more realistically. With this analytical model we can efficiently perform Monte-Carlo simulations of frequency distributions and parameter correlations of SOC processes, which are simpler and faster than the iterative simulations of cellular automaton models. Solar cycle modulations of the powerlaw slopes of flare frequency distributions can be used to diagnose the thresholds and growth rates of magnetic instabilities responsible for solar flares.Comment: Part II of Paper I: The State of Self-Organized Criticality of the Sun During the Last Three Solar Cycles. I. Observation

Search for a quantum phase transition in U(Pt_(1-x)Pd_x)_3

Pd in U(Pt_{1-x}Pd_x)_3 suppresses the superconducting T_c to 0 K at critical concentration x_c of 0.007 and induces a conventional AFM state for x > x_c. The resistivity below 1 K shows a deviation from Fermi liquid behavior described by a power law where the exponent ranges from 2 at x=0 to 1.6 for x = x_c. This suggests that a quantum phase transition (QPT) may exist near x_c associated with either the magnetic or superconducting transition temperature = 0 K. Transport for a sample with x = 0.004 < x_c has constant exponent of 1.77 as increasing pressure suppresses T_c to 0 K, suggesting that if a QPT exists it may be associated with the magnetic transition.Comment: 2 pages, proceedings of LT2

A global map to aid the identification and screening of critical habitat for marine industries

Marine industries face a number of risks that necessitate careful analysis prior to making decisions on the siting of operations and facilities. An important emerging regulatory framework on environmental sustainability for business operations is the International Finance Corporation’s Performance Standard 6 (IFC PS6). Within PS6, identification of biodiversity significance is articulated through the concept of “Critical Habitat”, a definition developed by the IFC and detailed through criteria aligned with those that support internationally accepted biodiversity designations. No publicly available tools have been developed in either the marine or terrestrial realm to assess the likelihood of sites or operations being located within PS6-defined Critical Habitat. This paper presents a starting point towards filling this gap in the form of a preliminary global map that classifies more than 13 million km2 of marine and coastal areas of importance for biodiversity (protected areas, Key Biodiversity Areas [KBA], sea turtle nesting sites, cold- and warm-water corals, seamounts, seagrass beds, mangroves, saltmarshes, hydrothermal vents and cold seeps) based on their overlap with Critical Habitat criteria, as defined by IFC. In total, 5798×103 km2 (1.6%) of the analysis area (global ocean plus coastal land strip) were classed as Likely Critical Habitat, and 7526×103 km2 (2.1%) as Potential Critical Habitat; the remainder (96.3%) were Unclassified. The latter was primarily due to the paucity of biodiversity data in marine areas beyond national jurisdiction and/or in deep waters, and the comparatively fewer protected areas and KBAs in these regions. Globally, protected areas constituted 65.9% of the combined Likely and Potential Critical Habitat extent, and KBAs 29.3%, not accounting for the overlap between these two features. Relative Critical Habitat extent in Exclusive Economic Zones varied dramatically between countries. This work is likely to be of particular use for industries operating in the marine and coastal realms as an early screening aid prior to in situ Critical Habitat assessment; to financial institutions making investment decisions; and to those wishing to implement good practice policies relevant to biodiversity management. Supplementary material (available online) includes other global datasets considered, documentation and justification of biodiversity feature classification, detail of IFC PS6 criteria/scenarios, and coverage calculations

Future malaria environmental suitability in Africa is sensitive to hydrology

Changes in climate shift the geographic locations that are suitable for malaria transmission because of the thermal constraints on vector Anopheles mosquitos and Plasmodium spp. malaria parasites and the lack of availability of surface water for vector breeding. Previous Africa-wide assessments have tended to solely represent surface water using precipitation, ignoring many important hydrological processes. Here, we applied a validated and weighted ensemble of global hydrological and climate models to estimate present and future areas of hydroclimatic suitability for malaria transmission. With explicit surface water representation, we predict a net decrease in areas suitable for malaria transmission from 2025 onward, greater sensitivity to future greenhouse gas emissions, and different, more complex, malaria transmission patterns. Areas of malaria transmission that are projected to change are smaller than those estimated by precipitation-based estimates but are associated with greater changes in transmission season lengths

Structural Requirements for Dihydrobenzoxazepinone Anthelmintics: Actions against Medically Important and Model Parasites: Trichuris muris, Brugia malayi, Heligmosomoides polygyrus, and Schistosoma mansoni

Nine hundred million people are infected with the soil-transmitted helminths Ascaris lumbricoides (roundworm), hookworm, and Trichuris trichiura (whipworm). However, low single-dose cure rates of the benzimidazole drugs, the mainstay of preventative chemotherapy for whipworm, together with parasite drug resistance, mean that current approaches may not be able to eliminate morbidity from trichuriasis. We are seeking to develop new anthelmintic drugs specifically with activity against whipworm as a priority and previously identified a hit series of dihydrobenzoxazepinone (DHB) compounds that block motility of ex vivo Trichuris muris. Here, we report a systematic investigation of the structure–activity relationship of the anthelmintic activity of DHB compounds. We synthesized 47 analogues, which allowed us to define features of the molecules essential for anthelmintic action as well as broadening the chemotype by identification of dihydrobenzoquinolinones (DBQs) with anthelmintic activity. We investigated the activity of these compounds against other parasitic nematodes, identifying DHB compounds with activity against Brugia malayi and Heligmosomoides polygyrus. We also demonstrated activity of DHB compounds against the trematode Schistosoma mansoni, a parasite that causes schistosomiasis. These results demonstrate the potential of DHB and DBQ compounds for further development as broad-spectrum anthelmintics

Improvements in Modeling 90 degree Bleed Holes for Supersonic Inlets

The modeling of porous bleed regions as boundary conditions in computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations of supersonic inlet flows has been improved through a scaling of sonic flow coefficient data for 90deg bleed holes. The scaling removed the Mach number as a factor in computing the sonic flow coefficient and allowed the data to be fitted with a quadratic equation, with the only factor being the ratio of the plenum static pressure to the surface static pressure. The implementation of the bleed model into the Wind-US CFD flow solver was simplified by no longer requiring the evaluation of the flow properties at the boundary-layer edge. The quadratic equation can be extrapolated to allow the modeling of small amounts of blowing, which can exist when recirculation of the bleed flow occurs within the bleed region. The improved accuracy of the bleed model was demonstrated through CFD simulations of bleed regions on a flat plate in supersonic flow with and without an impinging oblique shock. The bleed model demonstrated good agreement with experimental data and three-dimensional CFD simulations of bleed holes

SRAO CO Observation of 11 Supernova Remnants in l = 70 to 190 deg

We present the results of 12CO J = 1-0 line observations of eleven Galactic supernova remnants (SNRs) obtained using the Seoul Radio Astronomy Observatory (SRAO) 6-m radio telescope. The observation was made as a part of the SRAO CO survey of SNRs between l = 70 and 190 deg, which is intended to identify SNRs interacting with molecular clouds. The mapping areas for the individual SNRs are determined to cover their full extent in the radio continuum. We used halfbeam grid spacing (60") for 9 SNRs and full-beam grid spacing (120") for the rest. We detected CO emission towards most of the remnants. In six SNRs, molecular clouds showed a good spatial relation with their radio morphology, although no direct evidence for the interaction was detected. Two SNRs are particularly interesting: G85.4+0.7, where there is a filamentary molecular cloud along the radio shell, and 3C434.1, where a large molecular cloud appears to block the western half of the remnant. We briefly summarize the results obtained for individual SNRs.Comment: Accepted for publication in Astrophysics & Space Science. 12 pages, 12 figures, and 3 table

Tests of sunspot number sequences: 1. Using ionosonde data

More than 70 years ago it was recognised that ionospheric F2-layer critical frequencies [foF2] had a strong relationship to sunspot number. Using historic datasets from the Slough and Washington ionosondes, we evaluate the best statistical fits of foF2 to sunspot numbers (at each Universal Time [UT] separately) in order to search for drifts and abrupt changes in the fit residuals over Solar Cycles 17-21. This test is carried out for the original composite of the Wolf/Zürich/International sunspot number [R], the new “backbone” group sunspot number [RBB] and the proposed “corrected sunspot number” [RC]. Polynomial fits are made both with and without allowance for the white-light facular area, which has been reported as being associated with cycle-to-cycle changes in the sunspot number - foF2 relationship. Over the interval studied here, R, RBB, and RC largely differ in their allowance for the “Waldmeier discontinuity” around 1945 (the correction factor for which for R, RBB and RC is, respectively, zero, effectively over 20 %, and explicitly 11.6 %). It is shown that for Solar Cycles 18-21, all three sunspot data sequences perform well, but that the fit residuals are lowest and most uniform for RBB. We here use foF2 for those UTs for which R, RBB, and RC all give correlations exceeding 0.99 for intervals both before and after the Waldmeier discontinuity. The error introduced by the Waldmeier discontinuity causes R to underestimate the fitted values based on the foF2 data for 1932-1945 but RBB overestimates them by almost the same factor, implying that the correction for the Waldmeier discontinuity inherent in RBB is too large by a factor of two. Fit residuals are smallest and most uniform for RC and the ionospheric data support the optimum discontinuity multiplicative correction factor derived from the independent Royal Greenwich Observatory (RGO) sunspot group data for the same interval

Tests of sunspot number sequences: 2. Using geomagnetic and auroral data

We compare four sunspot-number data sequences against geomagnetic and terrestrial auroral observations. The comparisons are made for the original SIDC (Solar Influences Data Center) composite of Wolf/Zürich/International sunspot number [RISNv1], the group sunspot number [RG] by Hoyt and Schatten (Solar Phys., 181, 491, 1998), the new “backbone” group sunspot number [RBB] by Svalgaard and Schatten (Solar Phys., doi: 10.1007/s11207-015-0815-8, 2016), and the “corrected” sunspot number [RC] by Lockwood, Owens, and Barnard (J. Geophys. Res., 119, 5172, 2014). Each sunspot number is fitted with terrestrial observations, or parameters derived from terrestrial observations to be linearly proportional to sunspot number, over a 30-year calibration interval of 1982 - 2012. The fits are then used to compute test sequences, which extend further back in time and which are compared to RISNv1, RG, RBB, and RC. To study the long-term trends, comparisons are made using averages over whole solar cycles (minimum-to-minimum). The test variations are generated in four ways: i) using the IDV(1d) and IDV geomagnetic indices (for 1845 - 2013) fitted over the calibration interval using the various sunspot numbers and the phase of the solar cycle; ii) from the open solar flux (OSF) generated for 1845 - 2013 from four pairings of geomagnetic indices by Lockwood et al. (Ann. Geophys., 32, 383, 2014) and analysed using the OSF continuity model of Solanki, Schüssler, and Fligge (Nature, 408, 445, 2000) which employs a constant fractional OSF loss rate; iii) the same OSF data analysed using the OSF continuity model of Owens and Lockwood (J. Geophys. Res., 117, A04102, 2012) in which the fractional loss rate varies with the tilt of the heliospheric current sheet and hence with the phase of the solar cycle; iv) the occurrence frequency of low-latitude aurora for 1780 - 1980 from the survey of Legrand and Simon (Ann. Geophys., 5, 161, 1987). For all cases, RBB exceeds the test terrestrial series by an amount that increases as one goes back in time