Coping with change: urban resilience, sustainability, adaptability and path dependence. Future of cities: working paper

Comprises output from the Foresight future of cities project looking at the opportunities and challenges facing cities over the next 50 years. Specifically looks at how solutions can be found to complex problems faced by cities by allowing conflicting voices to be heard and by not imposing a single consensus or measure of success. Also considers how these methods affect our understanding of urban resilience, sustainability, adaptability and 'path dependence'

Reorganization of lipid domain structure in membranes by a transmembrane peptide: an ESR spin label study on the effect of the Escherichia coli outer membrane protein A signal peptide on the fluid lipid domain connectivity in binary mixtures of dimyristoyl phosphatidylcholine and distearoyl phosphatidylcholine

The effect of a transmembrane peptide on the domain structure of a two-component, two-phase lipid bilayer composed of dimyristoyl phosphatidylcholine (DMPC) and distearoyl phosphatidylcholine (DSPC) was examined by spin label electron spin resonance (ESR) spectroscopy. The peptide, pOmpA, is the hydrophobic, 25-residue signal sequence of the outer membrane protein A from Escherichia coli. Nitroxide derivatives of the phospholipid DSPC, 16-DSPCSL, and of the pOmpA signal peptide, pOmpA-IASL, were used as probes. The first-derivative lineshapes of the ESR spectra were analyzed using a normalized intensity ratio, R, that gives information on the average sizes of the disconnected fluid domains and their point of connectivity (Sankaram, M.B., D. Marsh, and T.E. Thompson. 1992. Biophys. J. 63:340–349). In the absence of the peptide, the number of fluid lipid domains does not vary with the fraction of lipid that is in the fluid phase, and phase conversion is accomplished solely by changes in the domain size. The phase boundaries of the lipid mixture remain largely unchanged by the presence of the peptide at mole fractions up to 0.02, but both the size and number of the fluid domains is changed, and the point at which they become connected is shifted to lower fractions of the fluid phase. In addition, the number of domains in the presence of the peptide no longer remains constant but increases from a domain density at low fractions of the fluid phase that is much lower than that in the absence of peptide to one that is comparable to the natural state in the absence of peptide at the point of domain connectivity. A simple model is presented for the process of domain fission, where the latter is determined by a balance between the effects of peptide concentration in the fluid domains, the line tension at the domain boundaries, and the distributional entropy of the domains

Merino ewes that are genetically fatter lose less weight when nutrition is restricted

Ewes that lose less weight when there is a shortage of paddock feed are potentially more profitable because they require less supplementary feeding or can be grazed at higher stocking rates during autumn/winter (Young et al. 2011). Adams et al. (2006) have shown that sheep genotypes which lose more weight when underfed have lower metabolic reserves including fat. This paper tested the hypothesis that selection for increased fatness would reduce the rate of liveweight loss in adult Merino ewes when nutrition was restricted

Whole-body fatness is a good predictor of phenotypic feed and liveweight efficiency in adult Merino ewes fed a poor-quality diet

Weight loss due to poor nutrition in adult ewes over summer-autumn is economically expensive due to immediate costs such as feed and labour but also due to ongoing costs to reproductive success and ewe health. We predicted that adult Merino ewes with a higher proportion of fat would be more efficient, both through lower intake and reduced weight loss. Four-year-old Merino ewes (n ≤ 64) were held in single pens and fed a chaff-based diet either ad libitum, with the aim of achieving liveweight maintenance, or a restricted amount to achieve liveweight loss of 100 g/day. Liveweight change and feed intake were measured, and residual liveweight change and residual feed intake were used to indicate efficiency. There was a difference of 2 MJ of metabolisable energy per day between the most efficient and least efficient ewes for residual feed intake, and a difference of 90 g per day between the most efficient and least efficient ewes for residual liveweight change. There was a significant association between blood plasma concentrations of leptin and both liveweight and feed efficiency, so that ewes with high concentrations of leptin had a lower daily intake, and/or lost less weight than did those with low concentrations of leptin. Managing adult Merino ewes to maximise fat-tissue accretion during spring via genetics and/or nutritional management could be a useful strategy to reduce feed requirements during summer-autumn because the ewes will be more efficient and have larger fat reserves to lose before achieving a lower critical limit

Threat assessment, sense making, and critical decision-making in police, military, ambulance, and fire services

Military and emergency response remain inherently dangerous occupations that require the ability to accurately assess threats and make critical decisions under significant time pressures. The cognitive processes associated with these abilities are complex and have been the subject of several significant, albeit service specific studies. Here, we present an attempt at finding the commonalities in threat assessment, sense making, and critical decision-making for emergency response across police, military, ambulance, and fire services. Relevant research is identified and critically appraised through a systematic literature review of English-language studies published from January 2000 through July 2020 on threat assessment and critical decision-making theory in dynamic emergency service and military environments. A total of 10,084 titles and abstracts were reviewed, with 94 identified as suitable for inclusion in the study. We then present our findings focused on six lines of enquiry: Bibliometrics, Language, Situation Awareness, Critical Decision Making, Actions, and Evaluation. We then thematically analyse these findings to reveal the commonalities between the four services. Despite existing single or dual service studies in the field, this research is significant in that it is the first examine decision making and threat assessment theory across all four contexts of military, police, fire and ambulance services, but it is also the first to assess the state of knowledge and explore the extent that commonality exists and models or practices can be applied across each discipline. The results demonstrate all military and emergency services personnel apply both intuitive and formal decision-making processes, depending on multiple situational and individual factors. Institutional restriction of decision-making to a single process at the expense of the consideration of others, or the inappropriate training and application of otherwise appropriate decision-making processes in certain circumstances is likely to increase the potential for adverse outcomes, or at the very least restrict peak performance being achieved. The applications of the findings of the study not only extend to facilitating improved practice in each of the individual services examined, but provide a basis to assist future research, and contribute to the literature exploring threat assessment and decision making in dynamic contexts

The optimum slaughter weight for different ewe mature sizes

Lamb producers have the option to market lambs at a range of slaughter weights. However, there are limited price premiums for heavier carcasses on a per kilogram basis. Any economic advantage of heavy lambs is realised by extra weight and not price. Both genetic and on-farm factors contribute to extra weight gain. Firstly, lamb weight and growth is correlated to its mature size and lambs from larger parents grow faster and reach heavier weights, but also have greater feed requirements. Secondly, stocking and reproductive rate account for the majority of variation in whole-farm profit, but increasing these also increases feed requirements. The production of heavy lambs is therefore a trade-off with maximising stocking and reproductive rate within the pool of available feed resources. We hypothesise that slaughter weight does not increase with mature size, due to the priority to increase stocking and reproductive rate for profit maximisation

Viewpoint – Pouring money down the drain: Can we break the habit by reconceiving wastes as resources?

As water-sector professionals re-discover the value in the 'waste' conveyed in 'waste'water, this Viewpoint argues that the theory of plural rationality (also known as Cultural Theory) may accelerate the switch from waste management to resource recovery. Accordingly, it extends the framing of plural rationality, from its traditional applications in matters of governance and social and economic analysis, to the beginnings of a set of plural schools of engineering thought. This sounds controversial. Indeed, we hope it is. For all too often ways to resolve water issues end up in the impasse of two deeply entrenched positions: the 'technocratic reductionism' of the 'quick engineering fix' to problem solving; and the 'participatory holism' of the 'local, socially sensitive, integrationist' approach. Plural rationality sees this is an impoverished duopoly. Our very strong preference is to find ways of promoting the creative interplay among plural (more than two), mutually opposed, contending ways of framing a problem and resolving it. This, we argue, should not only expand the portfolio of possible alternatives for technology-policy interventions, but also lead to the chosen alternative being preferable — in social, economic, and environmental terms — to what might otherwise have happened. Such solutions are called 'clumsy' in plural rationality theory. We use a synopsis of a case history of restoring water quality in the River Rhine in Europe, within a wider account of the sweep of resource recovery spanning two centuries (late 18th Century through early 21st Century), to illustrate how clumsiness works. This, however, does not extend to our elaborating our proposed set of plural schools of engineering thought beyond just its very beginnings. Our Viewpoint allows us merely to start framing the challenge of developing, and eventually applying, such a notion

Genetic fat – bullet proofing the Merino ewe

Merino ewes are the backbone of the Australian sheep industry and this is likely to be the case for some time. Stocking rate will remain a key profit driver in Merino enterprises and to maintain or improve profitability producers will need to continually adapt their production systems to deal with even larger changes in feed supply between seasons and years. The reproductive performance of the Merino ewe also needs to improve, largely through improving the survival of twin born lambs, to rebuild flock numbers and meet market demand for lamb and sheep meat. Increasing both stocking rates and reproductive performance need to be achieved in the context of producers wanting to run more sheep per person with less intervention and increased consumer demand for welfare friendly products. Improving genetics and matching sheep genotype to the production and management system will inevitably become more important. We believe this will include defining traits to more easily identify Merino sheep that are more robust, that lose less liveweight when faced with sub-optimum nutrition and that produce more progeny with higher survival rates both pre- and post-weaning. Increasing genetic fat is the prime candidate for increasing the robustness of Merino ewes and their progeny as the storage and mobilisation of fat is an important mechanism for all animals to cope with fluctuating environments. Fat is stored during favourable times and then mobilised to provide energy for fundamental functions when requirements exceed supply, such as during periods of limited nutrition or during late pregnancy and lactation. The amount of fat stored in fat depots in sheep can be increased by selection for higher subcutaneous fat depth, using Australian Sheep Breeding Values (ASBVs) from MERINOSELECT. However, from a genetic perspective, reducing the fatness of lamb to improve its appeal to the consumer has resulted in a general focus on selection for less fat in Australian sheep breeds. Merino sheep have also become leaner as a result of selection for higher fleece weights and the genetic association between higher fleece weight and reduced fatness (Huisman and Brown 2009). Defining the true value of fat requires an understanding of the effect it has on the value of lamb carcasses as well as its effects on the productivity of the sheep production system in different environments. In this paper we have reviewed published papers and our own unpublished work to test the hypothesis that Merino sheep that are genetically fatter will have improved performance especially under more restricted nutritional conditions

Taming uncertainty: the limits to quantification

Taming the beast of uncertainty has been the grand project to which actuaries have dedicated much of their energy and skill over at least the last 50 years - roughly the time since, in Hans Buehlmann's (1989) famous term, "Actuaries of the Second Kind" emerged

RE: Progress in HPV vaccine hesitancy

In the article by Sonawane et al, the important question of parental hesitancy regarding adolescent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination is examined. The authors reported an increase in hesitancy over a 6-year period (from 50% to 64%) among US parents asked about it. This apparent increase is due to progressively restricting the denominator in later years. Most importantly, the analytic choice masks a more general truth: HPV vaccine hesitancy actually fell among parents overall