Olive phenology as a sensitive indicator of future climatic warming in the Mediterranean

Experimental and modelling work suggests a strong dependence of olive flowering date on spring temperatures. Since airborne pollen concentrations reflect the flowering phenology of olive populations within a radius of 50 km, they may be a sensitive regional indicator of climatic warming. We assessed this potential sensitivity with phenology models fitted to flowering dates inferred from maximum airborne pollen data. Of four models tested, a thermal time model gave the best fit for Montpellier, France, and was the most effective at the regional scale, providing reasonable predictions for 10 sites in the western Mediterranean. This model was forced with replicated future temperature simulations for the western Mediterranean from a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (GCM). The GCM temperatures rose by 4·5 °C between 1990 and 2099 with a 1% per year increase in greenhouse gases, and modelled flowering date advanced at a rate of 6·2 d per °C. The results indicated that this long-term regional trend in phenology might be statistically significant as early as 2030, but with marked spatial variation in magnitude, with the calculated flowering date between the 1990s and 2030s advancing by 3–23 d. Future monitoring of airborne olive pollen may therefore provide an early biological indicator of climatic warming in the Mediterranean

Relation Between the Sarcolemmal Ca 2+ Current and Ca 2+ Sparks and Local Control Theories for Cardiac Excitation-Contraction Coupling

International audienceCa2+ sparks, the elementary events underlying excitation-contraction (E-C) coupling, occur when sarcoplasmic reticulum (SR) Ca2+ release channels open. They are activated locally by Ca2+ influx through sarcolemmal (SL) Ca2+ channels. By measuring the probability of spark occurrence under conditions in which their probability of occurrence is low, we address two important questions raised by our recent work: (1) When a Ca2+ spark is triggered, how many SL Ca2+ channels (at a minimum) contribute to its activation? (2) What is the relation between the subcellular local [Ca2+], produced by the opening of SL Ca2+ channels and the consequent SR Ca2+ release? By comparing the voltage dependence of Ca2+ sparks in rat ventricular myocytes with the Ca2+ current, we show that the opening of a single SL Ca2+ channel can trigger a Ca2+ spark. Furthermore, we deduce that the probability of SR Ca2+ release depends of the square of the local [Ca2+]i produced by SL Ca2+ channel openings. These results are discussed with respect to the properties of Ca2+-induced Ca2+-release (CICR) and the local control theory of excitation-contraction coupling