Relationship between Solar Energetic Particles and Properties of Flares and CMEs: Statistical Analysis of Solar Cycle 23 Events

A statistical analysis of the relationship between solar energetic particles (SEPs) and properties of solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is presented. SEP events during Solar Cycle 23 are selected that are associated with solar flares originating in the visible hemisphere of the Sun and that are at least of magnitude M1. Taking into account all flares and CMEs that occurred during this period, the probability for the occurrence of an SEP event near Earth is determined. A strong rise of this probability is observed for increasing flare intensities, more western locations, higher CME speeds, and halo CMEs. The correlations between the proton peak flux and these solar parameters are derived for a low (> 10 MeV) and high (> 60 MeV) energy range excluding any flux enhancement due to the passage of fast interplanetary shocks. The obtained correlation coefficients are 0.55±0.07 (0.63±0.06) with flare intensity, and 0.56±0.08 (0.40±0.09) with CME speed for E>10 MeV (E>60 MeV). For both energy ranges, the correlations with flare longitude and CME width are very weak or non-existent. Furthermore, the occurrence probabilities, correlation coefficients, and mean peak fluxes are derived in multi-dimensional bins combining the aforementioned solar parameters. The correlation coefficients are also determined in different proton energy channels ranging from 5 to 200 MeV. The results show that the correlation between the proton peak flux and the CME speed decreases with energy, while the correlation with the flare intensity shows the opposite behaviour. Furthermore, the correlation with the CME speed is stronger than the correlation with the flare intensity below 15 MeV and becomes weaker above 20 MeV. When the enhancements in the flux profiles due to interplanetary shocks are not excluded, only a small but not very significant change is observed in the correlation coefficients between the proton peak flux below 7 MeV and the CME speed

> 25 MeV Proton Events Observed by the High Energy Telescopes on the STEREO A and B Spacecraft and/or at Earth During the First ~ Seven Years of the STEREO Mission

Using observations from the High Energy Telescopes (HETs) on the STEREO A and B spacecraft and similar observations from near-Earth spacecraft, we summarize the properties of more than 200 individual > 25 MeV solar proton events, some detected by multiple spacecraft, that occurred from the beginning of the STEREO mission in October 2006 to December 2013, and provide a catalog of these events and their solar sources and associations. Longitudinal dependencies of the electron and proton peak intensities and delays to onset and peak intensity relative to the solar event have been examined for 25 three-spacecraft particle events. Expressed as Gaussians, peak intensities fall off with longitude with σ=47±14∘ for 0.7 – 4 MeV electrons, and σ=43±13∘ for 14 – 24 MeV protons. Several particle events are discussed in more detail, including one on 3 November 2011, in which ∼ 25 MeV protons filled the inner heliosphere within 90 minutes of the solar event, and another on 7 March 2012, in which we demonstrate that the first of two coronal mass ejections that erupted from an active region within ∼ 1 hour was associated with particle acceleration. Comparing the current Solar Cycle 24 with the previous cycle, the first > 25 MeV proton event was detected at Earth in the current solar cycle around one year after smoothed sunspot minimum, compared with a delay of only two months in Cycle 23. Otherwise, solar energetic particle event occurrence rates were reasonably similar during the rising phases of Cycles 23 and 24. However, the rate declined in 2013, reflecting the decline in sunspot number since the peak in the northern-hemisphere sunspot number in November 2011. Observations in late 2013 suggest that the rate may be rising again in association with an increase in the southern sunspot number

Acceleration and Propagation of Solar Energetic Particles

Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) are an important component of Space Weather, including radiation hazard to humans and electronic equipment, and the ionisation of the Earth’s atmosphere. We review the key observations of SEPs, our current understanding of their acceleration and transport, and discuss how this knowledge is incorporated within Space Weather forecasting tools. Mechanisms for acceleration during solar flares and at shocks driven by Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are discussed, as well as the timing relationships between signatures of solar eruptive events and the detection of SEPs in interplanetary space. Evidence on how the parameters of SEP events are related to those of the parent solar activity is reviewed and transport effects influencing SEP propagation to near-Earth locations are examined. Finally, the approaches to forecasting Space Weather SEP effects are discussed. We conclude that both flare and CME shock acceleration contribute to Space Weather relevant SEP populations and need to be considered within forecasting tools

Dynamics of the Earth's particle radiation environment

The physical processes affecting the dynamics of the Earth's particle radiation environment are reviewed along with scientific and engineering models developed for its description. The emphasis is on models that are either operational engineering models or models presently under development for this purpose. Three components of the radiation environment, i.e., galactic cosmic rays (GCRs), solar energetic particles (SEPs) and trapped radiation, are considered separately. In the case of SEP models, we make a distinction between statistical flux/fluence models and those aimed at forecasting events. Models of the effects of particle radiation on the atmosphere are also reviewed. Further, we summarize the main features of the models and discuss the main outstanding issues concerning the models and their possible use in operational space weather forecasting. We emphasize the need for continuing the development of physics-based models of the Earth's particle radiation environment, and their validation with observational data, until the models are ready to be used for nowcasting and/or forecasting the dynamics of the environment

25 Years of Self-Organized Criticality: Solar and Astrophysics

Shortly after the seminal paper “Self-Organized Criticality: An explanation of 1/fnoise” by Bak et al. (1987), the idea has been applied to solar physics, in “Avalanches and the Distribution of Solar Flares” by Lu and Hamilton (1991). In the following years, an inspiring cross-fertilization from complexity theory to solar and astrophysics took place, where the SOC concept was initially applied to solar flares, stellar flares, and magnetospheric substorms, and later extended to the radiation belt, the heliosphere, lunar craters, the asteroid belt, the Saturn ring, pulsar glitches, soft X-ray repeaters, blazars, black-hole objects, cosmic rays, and boson clouds. The application of SOC concepts has been performed by numerical cellular automaton simulations, by analytical calculations of statistical (powerlaw-like) distributions based on physical scaling laws, and by observational tests of theoretically predicted size distributions and waiting time distributions. Attempts have been undertaken to import physical models into the numerical SOC toy models, such as the discretization of magneto-hydrodynamics (MHD) processes. The novel applications stimulated also vigorous debates about the discrimination between SOC models, SOC-like, and non-SOC processes, such as phase transitions, turbulence, random-walk diffusion, percolation, branching processes, network theory, chaos theory, fractality, multi-scale, and other complexity phenomena. We review SOC studies from the last 25 years and highlight new trends, open questions, and future challenges, as discussed during two recent ISSI workshops on this theme.Fil: Aschwanden, Markus J.. Lockheed Martin Corporation; Estados UnidosFil: Crosby, Norma B.. Belgian Institute For Space Aeronomy; BélgicaFil: Dimitropoulou, Michaila. University Of Athens; GreciaFil: Georgoulis, Manolis K.. Academy Of Athens; GreciaFil: Hergarten, Stefan. Universitat Freiburg Im Breisgau; AlemaniaFil: McAteer, James. University Of New Mexico; Estados UnidosFil: Milovanov, Alexander V.. Max Planck Institute For The Physics Of Complex Systems; Alemania. Russian Academy Of Sciences. Space Research Institute; Rusia. Enea Centro Ricerche Frascati; ItaliaFil: Mineshige, Shin. Kyoto University; JapónFil: Morales, Laura Fernanda. Canadian Space Agency; Canadá. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Nishizuka, Naoto. Japan National Institute Of Information And Communications Technology; JapónFil: Pruessner, Gunnar. Imperial College London; Reino UnidoFil: Sanchez, Raul. Universidad Carlos Iii de Madrid. Instituto de Salud; EspañaFil: Sharma, A. Surja. University Of Maryland; Estados UnidosFil: Strugarek, Antoine. University Of Montreal; CanadáFil: Uritsky, Vadim. Nasa Goddard Space Flight Center; Estados Unido